Are there Social Spillovers in Consumers’ Security Assessments of Payment Instruments?

Even though security of payments has long been identified as an important aspect of the consumer payment experience, recent literature fails to appropriately assess the extent of social spillovers among payment users. We test for the existence and importance of such spillovers by analyzing whether social influence affects consumers’ perceptions of the security of payment instruments. Based on a 2008–2014 annual panel data survey of consumers, we find strong evidence of social spillovers in payment markets: others’ perceptions of security of payment instruments exert a positive influence on one’s own payment security perceptions. The significant and robust results imply that a consumer’s assessments of security converge to his peers’ average assessment: a 10 percent change in the divergence between one’s own security rating and peers’ average rating will result in a 7 percent change in one’s own rating in the next period. The results are robust to many specifications and do not change when we control for actual fraud or crime data. Our results indicate that spillovers rather than reflection appear to be the cause, although separating the two causes is very difficult (Manski 1993). In particular, the spillovers are stronger for people who experience an exogenous shock to security perception, people who have more social interactions, and younger consumers, who are more likely to be influenced by social media. We also examine the effects of social spillovers on payment behavior (that is, on decisions regarding payment adoption and use). Our results indicate that social spillovers have a rather limited impact on payment behavior, as others’ perceptions seem to affect one’s own payment behavior mainly indirectly through the effect on one’s own perceptions

Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

Chronic kidney disease and use of dental services in a united states public healthcare system: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As several studies have shown an association between periodontal disease and chronic kidney disease (CKD), regular dental care may be an important strategy for reducing the burden of CKD. Access to dental care may be limited in the US public health system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this retrospective cohort study of 6,498 adult patients with (n = 2,235) and without (n = 4,263) CKD and at least 12 months of follow-up within the San Francisco Department of Public Health Community Health Network clinical databases, we examined the likelihood of having a dental visit within the observation period (2005-2010) using Cox proportional hazards models. To determine whether dental visits reflected a uniform approach to preventive service use in this setting, we similarly examined the likelihood of having an eye visit among those with diabetes, for whom regular retinopathy screening is recommended. We defined CKD status by average estimated glomerular filtration rate based on two or more creatinine measurements ≥ 3 months apart (no CKD, ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m²; CKD, < 60 ml/min/1.73 m²).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only 11.0% and 17.4% of patients with and without CKD, respectively, had at least one dental visit. Those with CKD had a 25% lower likelihood of having a dental visit [HR = 0.75, 95% CI (0.64-0.88)] than those without CKD after adjustment for confounders. Among the subgroup of patients with diabetes, 11.8% vs. 17.2% of those with and without CKD had a dental visit, while 58.8% vs. 57.8% had an eye visit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Dental visits, but not eye visits, in a US public healthcare setting are extremely low, particularly among patients with CKD. Given the emerging association between oral health and CKD, addressing factors that impede dental access may be important for reducing the disparate burden of CKD in this population.</p

Randomized pilot study to disseminate caries-control services in dentist offices

BACKGROUND: To determine whether education and financial incentives increased dentists' delivery of fluoride varnish and sealants to at risk children covered by capitation dental insurance in Washington state (U.S.). METHODS: In 1999, 53 dental offices in Washington Dental Service's capitation dental plan were invited to participate in the study, and consenting offices were randomized to intervention (n = 9) and control (n = 10) groups. Offices recruited 689 capitation children aged 6–14 and at risk for caries, who were followed for 2 years. Intervention offices received provider education and fee-for-service reimbursement for delivering fluoride varnish and sealants. Insurance records were used to calculate office service rates for fluoride, sealants, and restorations. Parents completed mail surveys after follow-up to measure their children's dental utilization, dental satisfaction, dental fear and oral health status. Regression models estimated differences in service rates between intervention and control offices, and compared survey measures between groups. RESULTS: Nineteen offices (34%) consented to participate in the study. Fluoride and sealant rates were greater in the intervention offices than the control offices, but the differences were not statistically significant. Restoration rates were lower in the intervention offices than the control offices. Parents in the intervention group reported their children had less dental fear than control group parents. CONCLUSION: Due to low dentist participation the study lacked power to detect an intervention effect on dentists' delivery of caries-control services. The intervention may have reduced children's dental fear

A Reflection on Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

none5openVignoli, Daniele; Guetto, Raffaele; Bazzani, Giacomo; Pirani, Elena; Minello, AlessandraVignoli, Daniele; Guetto, Raffaele; Bazzani, Giacomo; Pirani, Elena; Minello, Alessandr