Inflammation and Atherothrombosis: Where Have We Been? Where Are We Going? Why Perform the CIRT and CANTOS Trials? From Bench to Bedside to Population and Back: A Story of Clinical Translation

Discussion of clinical and translational science in the context of Dr. Ridker\u27s research on inflammation, atherothrombosis, and cardiovascular disease prevention

Coronavirus 2019 Disease (COVID‐19), Systemic Inflammation, and Cardiovascular Disease

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Impact of sepsis on risk of postoperative arterial and venous thromboses: large prospective cohort study

Objectives: To evaluate the impact of preoperative sepsis on risk of postoperative arterial and venous thromboses. Design: Prospective cohort study using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database of the American College of Surgeons (ACS-NSQIP). Setting: Inpatient and outpatient procedures in 374 hospitals of all types across the United States, 2005-12. Participants: 2 305 380 adults who underwent surgical procedures. Main outcome measures Arterial thrombosis (myocardial infarction or stroke) and venous thrombosis (deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) in the 30 days after surgery. Results: Among all surgical procedures, patients with preoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome or any sepsis had three times the odds of having an arterial or venous postoperative thrombosis (odds ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 3.0 to 3.1). The adjusted odds ratios were 2.7 (2.5 to 2.8) for arterial thrombosis and 3.3 (3.2 to 3.4) for venous thrombosis. The adjusted odds ratios for thrombosis were 2.5 (2.4 to 2.6) in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, 3.3 (3.1 to 3.4) in patients with sepsis, and 5.7 (5.4 to 6.1) in patients with severe sepsis, compared with patients without any systemic inflammation. In patients with preoperative sepsis, both emergency and elective surgical procedures had a twofold increased odds of thrombosis. Conclusions: Preoperative sepsis represents an important independent risk factor for both arterial and venous thromboses. The risk of thrombosis increases with the severity of the inflammatory response and is higher in both emergent and elective surgical procedures. Suspicion of thrombosis should be higher in patients with sepsis who undergo surgery

Awareness, Accuracy, and Predictive Validity of Self-reported Cholesterol in Women

Background: Although current guidelines emphasize the importance of cholesterol knowledge, little is known about accuracy of this knowledge, factors affecting accuracy, and the relationship of self-reported cholesterol with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: The 39,876 female health professionals with no prior CVD in the Women’s Health Study were asked to provide self-reported and measured levels of total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Demographic and cardiovascular risk factors were considered as determinants of awareness and accuracy. Accuracy was evaluated by the difference between reported and measured cholesterol. In addition, we examined the relationship of self-reported cholesterol with incident CVD over 10 years. Results: Compared with women who were unaware of their cholesterol levels, aware women (84%) had higher levels of income, education, and exercise and were more likely to be married, normal in weight, treated for hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, nonsmokers, moderate drinkers, and users of hormone therapy. Women underestimated their total cholesterol by 9.7 mg/dL (95% CI: 9.2–10.2); covariates explained little of this difference (R$^2$ < .01). Higher levels of self-reported cholesterol were strongly associated with increased risk of CVD, which occurred in 741 women (hazard ratio 1.23/40 mg/dL cholesterol, 95% CI: 1.15–1.33). Women with elevated cholesterol who were unaware of their level had particularly increased risk (HR=1.88, P < .001) relative to aware women with normal measured cholesterol. Conclusion: Women with obesity, smoking, untreated hypertension, or sedentary lifestyle have decreased awareness of their cholesterol levels. Self-reported cholesterol underestimates measured values, but is strongly related to CVD. Lack of awareness of elevated cholesterol is associated with increased risk of CVD

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684-0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709-0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301-0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033-0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1-5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044-0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categorie

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684–0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709–0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301–0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033–0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1–5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044–0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion: Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categories

Socioeconomic status, blood pressure progression, and incident hypertension in a prospective cohort of female health professionals

Aims The aim of this study was to examine the association between socioeconomic status, blood pressure (BP) progression, and incident hypertension. Methods and results We included 27 207 female health professionals free of hypertension and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Participants were classified into five education and six income categories. The main outcome variables were BP progression at 48 months of follow-up and incident hypertension during the entire study period. At 48 months, 48.1% of women had BP progression. The multivariable adjusted relative risks [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for BP progression were 1.0 (referent), 0.96 (0.92-1.00), 0.92 (0.88-0.96), 0.90 (0.85-0.94), and 0.84 (0.78-0.91) (P for trend <0.0001) across increasing education categories and 1.0 (referent), 1.01 (0.94-1.08), 0.99 (0.93-1.06), 0.97 (0.91-1.04), 0.96 (0.90-1.03), and 0.89 (0.83-0.96) across increasing income categories (P for trend = 0.0001). During a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 8248 cases of incident hypertension occurred. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 1.0 (referent), 0.92 (0.86-0.99), 0.85 (0.79-0.92), 0.87 (0.80-0.94), and 0.74 (0.65-0.84) (P for trend <0.0001) across increasing education categories and 1.0 (referent), 1.07 (0.95-1.21), 1.07 (0.95-1.20), 1.06 (0.94-1.18), 1.04 (0.93-1.16), and 0.93 (0.82-1.06) (P for trend 0.08) across increasing income categories. In joint analyses, education but not income remained associated with BP progression and incident hypertension. Conclusion Socioeconomic status, as determined by education but not by income, is a strong independent predictor of BP progression and incident hypertension in wome

Periodontal disease and risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease in U.S. male physicians

AbstractOBJECTIVESWe sought to prospectively assess whether self-reported periodontal disease is associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease in a large population of male physicians.BACKGROUNDPeriodontal disease, the result of a complex interplay of bacterial infection and chronic inflammation, has been suggested to be a predictor of cardiovascular disease.METHODSPhysicians’ Health Study I was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of aspirin and beta-carotene in 22,071 U.S. male physicians. A total of 22,037 physicians provided self-reports of presence or absence of periodontal disease at study entry and were included in this analysis.RESULTSA total of 2,653 physicians reported a personal history of periodontal disease at baseline. During an average of 12.3 years of follow-up, there were 797 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 631 nonfatal strokes and 614 cardiovascular deaths. Thus, for each end point, the study had >90% power to detect a clinically important increased risk of 50%. In Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for age and treatment assignment, physicians who reported periodontal disease at baseline had slightly elevated, but statistically nonsignificant, relative risks (RR) of nonfatal myocardial infarction, (RR, 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.36), nonfatal stroke (RR, 1.10; CI, 0.88 to 1.37) and cardiovascular death (RR, 1.20; CI, 0.97 to 1.49). Relative risk for a combined end point of all important cardiovascular events (first occurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke or cardiovascular death) was 1.13 (CI, 0.99 to 1.28). After adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors, RRs were all attenuated and nonsignificant.CONCLUSIONSThese prospective data suggest that self-reported periodontal disease is not an independent predictor of subsequent cardiovascular disease in middle-aged to elderly men

Effect of interleukin-1 beta inhibition with canakinumab on incident lung cancer in patients with atherosclerosis: exploratory results from a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Inflammation in the tumour microenvironment mediated by interleukin 1β is hypothesised to have a major role in cancer invasiveness, progression, and metastases. We did an additional analysis in the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcomes Study (CANTOS), a randomised trial of the role of interleukin-1β inhibition in atherosclerosis, with the aim of establishing whether inhibition of a major product of the Nod-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome with canakinumab might alter cancer incidence.We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of canakinumab in 10 061 patients with atherosclerosis who had had a myocardial infarction, were free of previously diagnosed cancer, and had concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) of 2 mg/L or greater. To assess dose-response effects, patients were randomly assigned by computer-generated codes to three canakinumab doses (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, subcutaneously every 3 months) or placebo. Participants were followed up for incident cancer diagnoses, which were adjudicated by an oncology endpoint committee masked to drug or dose allocation. Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01327846. The trial is closed (the last patient visit was in June, 2017).Baseline concentrations of hsCRP (median 6·0 mg/L vs 4·2 mg/L; p<0·0001) and interleukin 6 (3·2 vs 2·6 ng/L; p<0·0001) were significantly higher among participants subsequently diagnosed with lung cancer than among those not diagnosed with cancer. During median follow-up of 3·7 years, compared with placebo, canakinumab was associated with dose-dependent reductions in concentrations of hsCRP of 26-41% and of interleukin 6 of 25-43% (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). Total cancer mortality (n=196) was significantly lower in the pooled canakinumab group than in the placebo group (p=0·0007 for trend across groups), but was significantly lower than placebo only in the 300 mg group individually (hazard ratio [HR] 0·49 [95% CI 0·31-0·75]; p=0·0009). Incident lung cancer (n=129) was significantly less frequent in the 150 mg (HR 0·61 [95% CI 0·39-0·97]; p=0·034) and 300 mg groups (HR 0·33 [95% CI 0·18-0·59]; p<0·0001; p<0·0001 for trend across groups). Lung cancer mortality was significantly less common in the canakinumab 300 mg group than in the placebo group (HR 0·23 [95% CI 0·10-0·54]; p=0·0002) and in the pooled canakinumab population than in the placebo group (p=0·0002 for trend across groups). Fatal infections or sepsis were significantly more common in the canakinumab groups than in the placebo group. All-cause mortality did not differ significantly between the canakinumab and placebo groups (HR 0·94 [95% CI 0·83-1·06]; p=0·31).Our hypothesis-generating data suggest the possibility that anti-inflammatory therapy with canakinumab targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway could significantly reduce incident lung cancer and lung cancer mortality. Replication of these data in formal settings of cancer screening and treatment is required.Novartis Pharmaceuticals