Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

The available power from placing tidal stream turbines in the Pentland Firth

This paper assesses an upper bound for the tidal stream power resource of the Pentland Firth. A depthaveraged numerical model of the tidal dynamics in the region is set-up and validated against field measurements. Actuator disc theory is used to model the effect of turbines on the flow, and to estimate the power available for generation after accounting for losses owing to mixing downstream of the turbines. It is found that three rows of turbines extending across the entire width of the Pentland Firth and blocking a large fraction of the channel can theoretically generate 1.9GW, averaged over the spring-neap cycle. However, generation of significantlymore power than this is unlikely to be feasible as the available power per additional swept area of turbine is too small to be viable. Our results differ from those obtained using simplified tidal channelmodels of the type used commonly in the literature.We also use our numerical model to investigate the available power from rows of turbines placed across various subchannels within the Pentland Firth, together with practical considerations such as the variation in power over the spring-neap tidal cycle and the changes to natural tidal flows which result from power extraction. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved

Extragalactic Radio Continuum Surveys and the Transformation of Radio Astronomy

Next-generation radio surveys are about to transform radio astronomy by discovering and studying tens of millions of previously unknown radio sources. These surveys will provide new insights to understand the evolution of galaxies, measuring the evolution of the cosmic star formation rate, and rivalling traditional techniques in the measurement of fundamental cosmological parameters. By observing a new volume of observational parameter space, they are also likely to discover unexpected new phenomena. This review traces the evolution of extragalactic radio continuum surveys from the earliest days of radio astronomy to the present, and identifies the challenges that must be overcome to achieve this transformational change.Comment: To be published in Nature Astronomy 18 Sept 201

Rapid circulation of warm subtropical waters in a major glacial fjord in East Greenland

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature Geoscience 3 (2010): 182-186, doi:10.1038/ngeo764.The recent rapid increase in mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet is primarily attributed to an acceleration of outlet glaciers. One possible cause is increased melting at the ice/ocean interface driven by the synchronous warming of subtropical waters offshore of Greenland. This hypothesis is largely untested, however, because of the lack of observations from Greenland’s glacial fjords and our limited understanding of their dynamics. Here, we present new ship-based and moored oceanographic data, collected in Sermilik Fjord, a large glacial fjord in East Greenland, showing that subtropical waters are present throughout the fjord and are continuously replenished via a wind-driven exchange with the shelf, where they occur year-round. The temperature and rapid renewal of these waters suggest that, at present, they drive enhanced submarine melting at the terminus. Key controls on the melting rate are the volume and properties of subtropical waters on the shelf and the patterns of the along-shore winds, suggesting the glaciers’ acceleration was triggered by a combination of atmospheric and oceanic changes. These measurements provide evidence of rapid advective pathway for the transmission of oceanic variability to the ice-sheet margins and highlight an important process that is missing from prognostic ice-sheet models.F.S. acknowledges support from WHOI’s Ocean and Climate Change Institute’s Arctic Research Initiative and from NSF OCE 0751896, and G.S.H and L.A.S from NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Program. Funding for the hooded seal deployments was obtained from the International Governance and Atlantic Seal Research Program, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, to G. B. S. and to the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources to A. R. A

Development and Initial Validation of the PEG, a Three-item Scale Assessing Pain Intensity and Interference

Inadequate pain assessment is a barrier to appropriate pain management, but single-item “pain screening” provides limited information about chronic pain. Multidimensional pain measures such as the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) are widely used in pain specialty and research settings, but are impractical for primary care. A brief and straightforward multidimensional pain measure could potentially improve initial assessment and follow-up of chronic pain in primary care. To develop an ultra-brief pain measure derived from the BPI. Development of a shortened three-item pain measure and initial assessment of its reliability, validity, and responsiveness. We used data from 1) a longitudinal study of 500 primary care patients with chronic pain and 2) a cross-sectional study of 646 veterans recruited from ambulatory care. Selected items assess average pain intensity (P), interference with enjoyment of life (E), and interference with general activity (G). Reliability of the three-item scale (PEG) was α = 0.73 and 0.89 in the two study samples. Overall, construct validity of the PEG was good for various pain-specific measures (r = 0.60–0.89 in Study 1 and r = 0.77–0.95 in Study 2), and comparable to that of the BPI. The PEG was sensitive to change and differentiated between patients with and without pain improvement at 6 months. We provide strong initial evidence for reliability, construct validity, and responsiveness of the PEG among primary care and other ambulatory clinic patients. The PEG may be a practical and useful tool to improve assessment and monitoring of chronic pain in primary care

Distinct Visual Working Memory Systems for View-Dependent and View-Invariant Representation

Background: How do people sustain a visual representation of the environment? Currently, many researchers argue that a single visual working memory system sustains non-spatial object information such as colors and shapes. However, previous studies tested visual working memory for two-dimensional objects only. In consequence, the nature of visual working memory for three-dimensional (3D) object representation remains unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, I show that when sustaining information about 3D objects, visual working memory clearly divides into two separate, specialized memory systems, rather than one system, as was previously thought. One memory system gradually accumulates sensory information, forming an increasingly precise view-dependent representation of the scene over the course of several seconds. A second memory system sustains view-invariant representations of 3D objects. The view-dependent memory system has a storage capacity of 3–4 representations and the view-invariant memory system has a storage capacity of 1–2 representations. These systems can operate independently from one another and do not compete for working memory storage resources. Conclusions/Significance: These results provide evidence that visual working memory sustains object information in two separate, specialized memory systems. One memory system sustains view-dependent representations of the scene, akin to the view-specific representations that guide place recognition during navigation in humans, rodents and insects. Th

Anomalous ion diffusion within skeletal muscle transverse tubule networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Skeletal muscle fibres contain transverse tubular (t-tubule) networks that allow electrical signals to rapidly propagate into the fibre. These electrical signals are generated by the transport of ions across the t-tubule membranes and this can result in significant changes in ion concentrations within the t-tubules during muscle excitation. During periods of repeated high-frequency activation of skeletal muscle the t-tubule K⁺concentration is believed to increase significantly and diffusive K⁺transport from the t-tubules into the interstitial space provides a mechanism for alleviating muscle membrane depolarization. However, the tortuous nature of the highly branched space-filling t-tubule network impedes the diffusion of material through the network. The effective diffusion coefficient for ions in the t-tubules has been measured to be approximately five times lower than in free solution, which is significantly different from existing theoretical values of the effective diffusion coefficient that range from 2–3 times lower than in free solution. To resolve this discrepancy, in this paper we study the process of diffusion within electron microscope scanned sections of the skeletal muscle t-tubule network using mathematical modelling and computer simulation techniques. Our model includes t-tubule geometry, tautness, hydrodynamic and non-planar network factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using our model we found that the t-tubule network geometry reduced the K⁺diffusion coefficient to 19–27% of its value in free solution, which is consistent with the experimentally observed value of 21% and is significantly smaller than existing theoretical values that range from 32–50%. We also found that diffusion in the t-tubules is anomalous for skeletal muscle fibres with a diameter of less than approximately 10–20 μm as a result of obstructed diffusion. We also observed that the [K⁺] within the interior of the t-tubule network during high-frequency activation is greater for fibres with a larger diameter. Smaller skeletal muscle fibres are therefore more resistant to membrane depolarization. Because the t-tubule network is anisotropic and inhomogeneous, we also found that the [K⁺] distribution generated within the network was irregular for fibres of small diameter.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model explains the measured effective diffusion coefficient for ions in skeletal muscle t-tubules.</p

Safety and Efficacy of Methylene Blue Combined with Artesunate or Amodiaquine for Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria: A Randomized Controlled Trial from Burkina Faso

Besides existing artemisinin-based combination therapies, alternative safe, effective and affordable drug combinations against falciparum malaria are needed. Methylene blue (MB) was the first synthetic antimalarial drug ever used, and recent studies have been promising with regard to its revival in malaria therapy. The objective of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of two MB-based malaria combination therapies, MB-artesunate (AS) and MB-amodiaquine (AQ), compared to the local standard of care, AS-AQ, in Burkina Faso.Open-label randomised controlled phase II study in 180 children aged 6-10 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Nouna, north-western Burkina Faso. Follow-up was for 28 days and analysis by intention-to-treat. The treatment groups were similar in baseline characteristics and there was only one loss to follow-up. No drug-related serious adverse events and no deaths occurred. MB-containing regimens were associated with mild vomiting and dysuria. No early treatment failures were observed. Parasite clearance time differed significantly among groups and was the shortest with MB-AS. By day 14, the rates of adequate clinical and parasitological response after PCR-based correction for recrudescence were 87% for MB-AS, 100% for MB-AQ (p = 0.004), and 100% for AS-AQ (p = 0.003). By day 28, the respective figure was lowest for MB-AS (62%), intermediate for the standard treatment AS-AQ (82%; p = 0.015), and highest for MB-AQ (95%; p<0.001; p = 0.03).MB-AQ is a promising alternative drug combination against malaria in Africa. Moreover, MB has the potential to further accelerate the rapid parasite clearance of artemisinin-based combination therapies. More than a century after the antimalarial properties of MB had been described, its role in malaria control deserves closer attention.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00354380

Spatial distribution and male mating success of Anopheles gambiae swarms

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Anopheles gambiae </it>mates in flight at particular mating sites over specific landmarks known as swarm markers. The swarms are composed of males; females typically approach a swarm, and leave <it>in copula</it>. This mating aggregation looks like a lek, but appears to lack the component of female choice. To investigate the possible mechanisms promoting the evolution of swarming in this mosquito species, we looked at the variation in mating success between swarms and discussed the factors that structure it in light of the three major lekking models, known as the female preference model, the hotspot model, and the hotshot model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found substantial variation in swarm size and in mating success between swarms. A strong correlation between swarm size and mating success was observed, and consistent with the hotspot model of lek formation, the <it>per capita </it>mating success of individual males did not increase with swarm size. For the spatial distribution of swarms, our results revealed that some display sites were more attractive to both males and females and that females were more attracted to large swarms. While the swarm markers we recognize help us in localizing swarms, they did not account for the variation in swarm size or in the swarm mating success, suggesting that mosquitoes probably are attracted to these markers, but also perceive and respond to other aspects of the swarming site.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Characterizing the mating system of a species helps understand how this species has evolved and how selective pressures operate on male and female traits. The current study looked at male mating success of <it>An. gambiae </it>and discussed possible factors that account for its variation. We found that swarms of <it>An. gambiae </it>conform to the hotspot model of lek formation. But because swarms may lack the female choice component, we propose that the <it>An. gambiae </it>mating system is a lek-like system that incorporates characteristics pertaining to other mating systems such as scramble mating competition.</p