Don't spin the pen: two alternative methods for second-stage sampling in urban cluster surveys

In two-stage cluster surveys, the traditional method used in second-stage sampling (in which the first household in a cluster is selected) is time-consuming and may result in biased estimates of the indicator of interest. Firstly, a random direction from the center of the cluster is selected, usually by spinning a pen. The houses along that direction are then counted out to the boundary of the cluster, and one is then selected at random to be the first household surveyed. This process favors households towards the center of the cluster, but it could easily be improved. During a recent meningitis vaccination coverage survey in Maradi, Niger, we compared this method of first household selection to two alternatives in urban zones: 1) using a superimposed grid on the map of the cluster area and randomly selecting an intersection; and 2) drawing the perimeter of the cluster area using a Global Positioning System (GPS) and randomly selecting one point within the perimeter. Although we only compared a limited number of clusters using each method, we found the sampling grid method to be the fastest and easiest for field survey teams, although it does require a map of the area. Selecting a random GPS point was also found to be a good method, once adequate training can be provided. Spinning the pen and counting households to the boundary was the most complicated and time-consuming. The two methods tested here represent simpler, quicker and potentially more robust alternatives to spinning the pen for cluster surveys in urban areas. However, in rural areas, these alternatives would favor initial household selection from lower density (or even potentially empty) areas. Bearing in mind these limitations, as well as available resources and feasibility, investigators should choose the most appropriate method for their particular survey context

Measuring vertebrate telomeres: applications and limitations

Telomeres are short tandem repeated sequences of DNA found at the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes that function in stabilizing chromosomal end integrity. In vivo studies of somatic tissue of mammals and birds have shown a correlation between telomere length and organismal age within species, and correlations between telomere shortening rate and lifespan among species. This result presents the tantalizing possibility that telomere length could be used to provide much needed information on age, ageing and survival in natural populations where longitudinal studies are lacking. Here we review methods available for measuring telomere length and discuss the potential uses and limitations of telomeres as age and ageing estimators in the fields of vertebrate ecology, evolution and conservation

Prediction-Coherent LSTM-based Recurrent Neural Network for Safer Glucose Predictions in Diabetic People

In the context of time-series forecasting, we propose a LSTM-based recurrent neural network architecture and loss function that enhance the stability of the predictions. In particular, the loss function penalizes the model, not only on the prediction error (mean-squared error), but also on the predicted variation error. We apply this idea to the prediction of future glucose values in diabetes, which is a delicate task as unstable predictions can leave the patient in doubt and make him/her take the wrong action, threatening his/her life. The study is conducted on type 1 and type 2 diabetic people, with a focus on predictions made 30-minutes ahead of time. First, we confirm the superiority, in the context of glucose prediction, of the LSTM model by comparing it to other state-of-the-art models (Extreme Learning Machine, Gaussian Process regressor, Support Vector Regressor). Then, we show the importance of making stable predictions by smoothing the predictions made by the models, resulting in an overall improvement of the clinical acceptability of the models at the cost in a slight loss in prediction accuracy. Finally, we show that the proposed approach, outperforms all baseline results. More precisely, it trades a loss of 4.3\% in the prediction accuracy for an improvement of the clinical acceptability of 27.1\%. When compared to the moving average post-processing method, we show that the trade-off is more efficient with our approach

Total humerus replacement for osteosarcoma with proximal part of humerus: a case report

Incisional biopsy and intramedullary pinning were performed for pathological fracture associated with a malignant bone tumor of the proximal humerus. Osteosarcoma, for which preoperative chemotherapy had been performed, was confirmed by postoperative pathological examination. To achieve wide resection and acquire a safe resected margin, total humerus replacement was performed, and the whole humerus was reconstructed using the Howmedica Modular Reconstruction system. The patient resumed normal activities, although mild contracture of the elbow joint remains 8 years after surgery

A pilot randomised controlled trial of personalised care for depressed patients with symptomatic coronary heart disease in South London general practices: the UPBEAT-UK RCT protocol and recruitment.

ABSTRACT: Background: Community studies reveal people with coronary heart disease (CHD) are twice as likely to be depressed as the general population and that this co-morbidity negatively affects the course and outcome of both conditions. There is evidence for the efficacy of collaborative care and case management for depression treatment, and whilst NICE guidelines recommend these approaches only where depression has not responded to psychological, pharmacological, or combined treatments, these care approaches may be particularly relevant to the needs of people with CHD and depression in the earlier stages of stepped care in primary care settings. Methods: This pilot randomised controlled trial will evaluate whether a simple intervention involving a personalised care plan, elements of case management and regular telephone review is a feasible and acceptable intervention that leads to better mental and physical health outcomes for these patients. The comparator group will be usual general practitioner (GP) care. 81 participants have been recruited from CHD registers of 15 South London general practices. Eligible participants have probable major depression identified by a score of ≥8 on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression subscale (HADS-D) together with symptomatic CHD identified using the Modified Rose Angina Questionnaire. Consenting participants are randomly allocated to usual care or the personalised care intervention which involves a comprehensive assessment of each participant’s physical and mental health needs which are documented in a care plan, followed by regular telephone reviews by the case manager over a 6-month period. At each review, the intervention participant’s mood, function and identified problems are reviewed and the case manager uses evidence based behaviour change techniques to facilitate achievement of goals specified by the patient with the aim of increasing the patient’s self efficacy to solve their problems. Depressive symptoms measured by HADS score will be collected at baseline and 1, 6- and 12 months post randomisation. Other outcomes include CHD symptoms, quality of life, wellbeing and health service utilisation. Discussion: This practical and patient-focused intervention is potentially an effective and accessible approach to the health and social care needs of people with depression and CHD in primary care. Trial registration: ISRCTN21615909

Cellular adaptations to hypoxia and acidosis during somatic evolution of breast cancer

Conceptual models of carcinogenesis typically consist of an evolutionary sequence of heritable changes in genes controlling proliferation, apoptosis, and senescence. We propose that these steps are necessary but not sufficient to produce invasive breast cancer because intraductal tumour growth is also constrained by hypoxia and acidosis that develop as cells proliferate into the lumen and away from the underlying vessels. This requires evolution of glycolytic and acid-resistant phenotypes that, we hypothesise, is critical for emergence of invasive cancer. Mathematical models demonstrate severe hypoxia and acidosis in regions of intraductal tumours more than 100 m from the basement membrane. Subsequent evolution of glycolytic and acid-resistant phenotypes leads to invasive proliferation. Multicellular spheroids recapitulating ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) microenvironmental conditions demonstrate upregulated glucose transporter 1 (GLUT1) as adaptation to hypoxia followed by growth into normoxic regions in qualitative agreement with model predictions. Clinical specimens of DCIS exhibit periluminal distribution of GLUT-1 and Na+/H+ exchanger (NHE) indicating transcriptional activation by hypoxia and clusters of the same phenotype in the peripheral, presumably normoxic regions similar to the pattern predicted by the models and observed in spheroids. Upregulated GLUT-1 and NHE-1 were observed in microinvasive foci and adjacent intraductal cells. Adaptation to hypoxia and acidosis may represent key events in transition from in situ to invasive cancer

Patterns of analgesic use, pain and self-efficacy: a cross-sectional study of patients attending a hospital rheumatology clinic

Background: Many people attending rheumatology clinics use analgesics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatories for persistent musculoskeletal pain. Guidelines for pain management recommend regular and pre-emptive use of analgesics to reduce the impact of pain. Clinical experience indicates that analgesics are often not used in this way. Studies exploring use of analgesics in arthritis have historically measured adherence to such medication. Here we examine patterns of analgesic use and their relationships to pain, self-efficacy and demographic factors. Methods: Consecutive patients were approached in a hospital rheumatology out-patient clinic. Pattern of analgesic use was assessed by response to statements such as 'I always take my tablets every day.' Pain and self-efficacy (SE) were measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and Arthritis Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES). Influence of factors on pain level and regularity of analgesic use were investigated using linear regression. Differences in pain between those agreeing and disagreeing with statements regarding analgesic use were assessed using t-tests. Results: 218 patients (85% of attendees) completed the study. Six (2.8%) patients reported no current pain, 26 (12.3%) slight, 100 (47.4%) moderate, 62 (29.4%) severe and 17 (8.1%) extreme pain. In multiple linear regression self efficacy and regularity of analgesic use were significant (p < 0.01) with lower self efficacy and more regular use of analgesics associated with more pain. Low SE was associated with greater pain: 40 (41.7%) people with low SE reported severe pain versus 22 (18.3%) people with high SE, p < 0.001. Patients in greater pain were significantly more likely to take analgesics regularly; 13 (77%) of those in extreme pain reported always taking their analgesics every day, versus 9 (35%) in slight pain. Many patients, including 46% of those in severe pain, adjusted analgesic use to current pain level. In simple linear regression, pain was the only variable significantly associated with regularity of analgesic use: higher levels of pain corresponded to more regular analgesic use (p = 0.003). Conclusion: Our study confirms that there is a strong inverse relationship between self-efficacy and pain severity. Analgesics are often used irregularly by people with arthritis, including some reporting severe pain

Childhood craniopharyngioma: greater hypothalamic involvement before surgery is associated with higher homeostasis model insulin resistance index

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity seems to be linked to the hypothalamic involvement in craniopharyngioma. We evaluated the pre-surgery relationship between the degree of this involvement on magnetic resonance imaging and insulin resistance, as evaluated by the homeostasis model insulin resistance index (HOMA). As insulin-like growth factor 1, leptin, soluble leptin receptor (sOB-R) and ghrelin may also be involved, we compared their plasma concentrations and their link to weight change.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>27 children with craniopharyngioma were classified as either grade 0 (n = 7, no hypothalamic involvement), grade 1 (n = 8, compression without involvement), or grade 2 (n = 12, severe involvement).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Despite having similar body mass indexes (BMI), the grade 2 patients had higher glucose, insulin and HOMA before surgery than the grade 0 (P = 0.02, <0.05 and 0.02 respectively) and 1 patients (P < 0.02 and <0.03 for both insulin and HOMA). The grade 0 (5.8 ± 4.9) and 1 (7.2 ± 5.3) patients gained significantly less weight (kg) during the year after surgery than did the grade 2 (16.3 ± 7.4) patients. The pre-surgery HOMA was positively correlated with these weight changes (P < 0.03).</p> <p>The data for the whole population before and 6–18 months after surgery showed increases in BMI (P < 0.0001), insulin (P < 0.005), and leptin (P = 0.0005), and decreases in sOB-R (P < 0.04) and ghrelin (P < 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The hypothalamic involvement by the craniopharyngioma before surgery seems to determine the degree of insulin resistance, regardless of the BMI. The pre-surgery HOMA values were correlated with the post-surgery weight gain. This suggests that obesity should be prevented by reducing inn secretion in those cases with hypothalamic involvement.</p

Flock size and structure influence reproductive success in four species of flamingo in 540 captive populations worldwide

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: Anonymized data files for each species, and associated metadata, are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7504076. In line with the FAIR data principles, the data are made available under the following license: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).As global wildlife populations continue to decline, the health and sustainability of ex situ populations in zoos and aquariums have become increasingly important. However, the majority of managed ex situ populations are not meeting sustainability criteria and are not viable in the long term. Historically, ex situ flamingo (Phoenicopteriformes) populations have shown low rates of reproductive success and improvements are needed for long-term viability. Both flock size and environmental suitability have previously been shown to be important determinants of ex situ flamingo reproductive success in a limited number of sites in some species. Here we combined current and historic globally shared zoological records for four of the six extant species of flamingo (Phoeniconaias minor, Phoenicopterus chilensis, Phoenicopterus roseus, and Phoenicopterus ruber) to analyze how flock size, structure, and climatic variables have influenced reproductive success in ex situ flamingo populations at 540 zoological institutions from 1990 to 2019. Flock size had a strong nonlinear relationship with reproductive success for all species, with flock sizes of 41–100 birds necessary to achieve ca. 50% probability of reproduction. Additionally, an even sex ratio and the introduction of new individuals to a flock both increased ex situ reproductive success in some cases, while climatic variables played a limited role. We demonstrate the conservation management potential from globally shared zoological data and provide species-specific management recommendations to increase the reproductive success of global ex situ flamingo populations: minimum flock sizes should be increased, and we encourage greater collaboration between individual institutions and regional associations in exchanging birds between flocks.Irish Research CouncilInternational Max Planck Research School for Organismal Biolog