Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income, 1960.1- 1987.4

The quarterly time series of German consumption and income are analyzed with respect to seasonality and stochastic trends. It emerges that both variables can be appropriately described by a periodically integrated autoregression. An implication is that the stochastic trend and the seasonal fluctuations are not independent for each of the univariate series. In order to test for cointegration across the two series, we propose several methods which take account of the relationship between seasons and trends in the univariate series. Some of these methods boil down to extracting the stochastic trend from the univariate series in a first step and to relating these trends using cointegration techniques in a second step. Another method is an extension of the Johansen cointegration testing approach to periodic vector autoregressions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the empirical performance of the various methods. The main empirical result is that only in the first quarter there seems to be cointegration between German consumption and income

Physical health behaviours and health locus of control in people with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder and bipolar disorder: a cross-sectional comparative study with people with non-psychotic mental illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with mental illness experience high levels of morbidity and mortality from physical disease compared to the general population. Our primary aim was to compare how people with severe mental illness (SMI; i.e. schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and bipolar disorder) and non-psychotic mental illness perceive their: (i) global physical health, (ii) barriers to improving physical health, (iii) physical health with respect to important aspects of life and (iv) motivation to change modifiable high-risk behaviours associated with coronary heart disease. A secondary aim was to determine health locus of control in these two groups of participants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>People with SMI and non-psychotic mental illness were recruited from an out-patient adult mental health service in London. Cross-sectional comparison between the two groups was conducted by means of a self-completed questionnaire.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 146 people participated in the study, 52 with SMI and 94 with non-psychotic mental illness. There was no statistical difference between the two groups with respect to the perception of global physical health. However, physical health was considered to be a less important priority in life by people with SMI (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-0.9, <it>p </it>= 0.029). There was no difference between the two groups in their desire to change high risk behaviours. People with SMI are more likely to have a health locus of control determined by powerful others (<it>p </it>< 0.001) and chance (<it>p </it>= 0.006).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>People with SMI appear to give less priority to their physical health needs. Health promotion for people with SMI should aim to raise awareness of modifiable high-risk lifestyle factors. Findings related to locus of control may provide a theoretical focus for clinical intervention in order to promote a much needed behavioural change in this marginalised group of people.</p

A systematic review and meta-synthesis of the impact of low back pain on people's lives

Copyright @ 2014 Froud et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.Background - Low back pain (LBP) is a common and costly problem that many interpret within a biopsychosocial model. There is renewed concern that core-sets of outcome measures do not capture what is important. To inform debate about the coverage of back pain outcome measure core-sets, and to suggest areas worthy of exploration within healthcare consultations, we have synthesised the qualitative literature on the impact of low back pain on people’s lives. Methods - Two reviewers searched CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, PEDro, and Medline, identifying qualitative studies of people’s experiences of non-specific LBP. Abstracted data were thematic coded and synthesised using a meta-ethnographic, and a meta-narrative approach. Results - We included 49 papers describing 42 studies. Patients are concerned with engagement in meaningful activities; but they also want to be believed and have their experiences and identity, as someone ‘doing battle’ with pain, validated. Patients seek diagnosis, treatment, and cure, but also reassurance of the absence of pathology. Some struggle to meet social expectations and obligations. When these are achieved, the credibility of their pain/disability claims can be jeopardised. Others withdraw, fearful of disapproval, or unable or unwilling to accommodate social demands. Patients generally seek to regain their pre-pain levels of health, and physical and emotional stability. After time, this can be perceived to become unrealistic and some adjust their expectations accordingly. Conclusions - The social component of the biopsychosocial model is not well represented in current core-sets of outcome measures. Clinicians should appreciate that the broader impact of low back pain includes social factors; this may be crucial to improving patients’ experiences of health care. Researchers should consider social factors to help develop a portfolio of more relevant outcome measures.Arthritis Research U

Framework, principles and recommendations for utilising participatory methodologies in the co-creation and evaluation of public health interventions

Background: Due to the chronic disease burden on society, there is a need for preventive public health interventions to stimulate society towards a healthier lifestyle. To deal with the complex variability between individual lifestyles and settings, collaborating with end-users to develop interventions tailored to their unique circumstances has been suggested as a potential way to improve effectiveness and adherence. Co-creation of public health interventions using participatory methodologies has shown promise but lacks a framework to make this process systematic. The aim of this paper was to identify and set key principles and recommendations for systematically applying participatory methodologies to co-create and evaluate public health interventions. Methods: These principles and recommendations were derived using an iterative reflection process, combining key learning from published literature in addition to critical reflection on three case studies conducted by research groups in three European institutions, all of whom have expertise in co-creating public health interventions using different participatory methodologies. Results: Key principles and recommendations for using participatory methodologies in public health intervention co-creation are presented for the stages of: Planning (framing the aim of the study and identifying the appropriate sampling strategy); Conducting (defining the procedure, in addition to manifesting ownership); Evaluating (the process and the effectiveness) and Reporting (providing guidelines to report the findings). Three scaling models are proposed to demonstrate how to scale locally developed interventions to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to facilitate public health intervention co-creation and evaluation utilising participatory methodologies by ensuring the process is systematic and reproducible

The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas

Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement

A pilot study of an integrated mental health, social and medical model for diabetes care in an inner‐city setting: three dimensions for diabetes (3DFD)

Aims We examined the effectiveness of a service innovation, Three Dimensions for Diabetes (3DFD), that consisted of a referral to an integrated mental health, social care and diabetes treatment model, compared with usual care in improving biomedical and health economic outcomes. Methods Using a non‐randomized control design, the 3DFD model was offered in two inner‐city boroughs in London, UK, where diabetes health professionals could refer adult residents with diabetes, suboptimal glycaemic control [HbA1c ≥ 75 mmol/mol (≥ 9.0%)] and mental health and/or social problems. In the usual care group, there was no referral pathway and anonymized data on individuals with HbA1c ≥ 75 mmol/mol (≥ 9.0%) were collected from primary care records. Change in HbA1c from baseline to 12 months was the primary outcome, and change in healthcare costs and biomedical variables were secondary outcomes. Results 3DFD participants had worse glycaemic control and higher healthcare costs than control participants at baseline. 3DFD participants had greater improvement in glycaemic control compared with control participants [−14 mmol/mol (−1.3%) vs. −6 mmol/mol (−0.6%) respectively, P < 0.001], adjusted for confounding. Total follow‐up healthcare costs remained higher in the 3DFD group compared with the control group (mean difference £1715, 95% confidence intervals 591 to 2811), adjusted for confounding. The incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio was £398 per mmol/mol unit decrease in HbA1c, indicating the 3DFD intervention was more effective and costed more than usual care. Conclusions A biomedical, psychological and social criteria‐based referral system for identifying and managing high‐cost and high‐risk individuals with poor glycaemic control can lead to improved health in all three dimensions

The Effects of Biogeography on Ant Diversity and Activity on the Boston Harbor Islands, Massachusetts, U.S.A

Many studies have examined how island biogeography affects diversity on the scale of island systems. In this study, we address how diversity varies over very short periods of time on individual islands. To do this, we compile an inventory of the ants living in the Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area, Boston, Massachusetts, USA using data from a five-year All Taxa Biodiversity Inventory of the region's arthropods. Consistent with the classical theory of island biogeography, species richness increased with island size, decreased with island isolation, and remained relatively constant over time. Additionally, our inventory finds that almost half of the known Massachusetts ant fauna can be collected in the BHI, and identifies four new species records for Massachusetts, including one new to the United States, Myrmica scabrinodis. We find that the number of species actually active on islands depended greatly on the timescale under consideration. The species that could be detected during any given week of sampling could by no means account for total island species richness, even when correcting for sampling effort. Though we consistently collected the same number of species over any given week of sampling, the identities of those species varied greatly between weeks. This variation does not result from local immigration and extinction of species, nor from seasonally-driven changes in the abundance of individual species, but rather from weekly changes in the distribution and activity of foraging ants. This variation can be upwards of 50% of ant species per week. This suggests that numerous ant species on the BHI share the same physical space at different times. This temporal partitioning could well explain such unexpectedly high ant diversity in an isolated, urban site