Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

On metric geometry of conformal moduli spaces of four-dimensional superconformal theories

Conformal moduli spaces of four-dimensional superconformal theories obtained by deformations of a superpotential are considered. These spaces possess a natural metric (a Zamolodchikov metric). This metric is shown to be Kahler. The proof is based on superconformal Ward identities.Comment: 8 page

Higher Spins in AdS and Twistorial Holography

In this paper we simplify and extend previous work on three-point functions in Vasiliev's higher spin gauge theory in AdS4. We work in a gauge in which the space-time dependence of Vasiliev's master fields is gauged away completely, leaving only the internal twistor-like variables. The correlation functions of boundary operators can be easily computed in this gauge. We find complete agreement of the tree level three point functions of higher spin currents in Vasiliev's theory with the conjectured dual free O(N) vector theory.Comment: 23 pages. v3: minor errors fixed, added comments and reference

Exactly Marginal Deformations and Global Symmetries

We study the problem of finding exactly marginal deformations of N=1 superconformal field theories in four dimensions. We find that the only way a marginal chiral operator can become not exactly marginal is for it to combine with a conserved current multiplet. Additionally, we find that the space of exactly marginal deformations, also called the "conformal manifold," is the quotient of the space of marginal couplings by the complexified continuous global symmetry group. This fact explains why exactly marginal deformations are ubiquitous in N=1 theories. Our method turns the problem of enumerating exactly marginal operators into a problem in group theory, and substantially extends and simplifies the previous analysis by Leigh and Strassler. We also briefly discuss how to apply our analysis to N=2 theories in three dimensions.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figure

Physical health behaviours and health locus of control in people with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder and bipolar disorder: a cross-sectional comparative study with people with non-psychotic mental illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with mental illness experience high levels of morbidity and mortality from physical disease compared to the general population. Our primary aim was to compare how people with severe mental illness (SMI; i.e. schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and bipolar disorder) and non-psychotic mental illness perceive their: (i) global physical health, (ii) barriers to improving physical health, (iii) physical health with respect to important aspects of life and (iv) motivation to change modifiable high-risk behaviours associated with coronary heart disease. A secondary aim was to determine health locus of control in these two groups of participants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>People with SMI and non-psychotic mental illness were recruited from an out-patient adult mental health service in London. Cross-sectional comparison between the two groups was conducted by means of a self-completed questionnaire.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 146 people participated in the study, 52 with SMI and 94 with non-psychotic mental illness. There was no statistical difference between the two groups with respect to the perception of global physical health. However, physical health was considered to be a less important priority in life by people with SMI (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-0.9, <it>p </it>= 0.029). There was no difference between the two groups in their desire to change high risk behaviours. People with SMI are more likely to have a health locus of control determined by powerful others (<it>p </it>< 0.001) and chance (<it>p </it>= 0.006).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>People with SMI appear to give less priority to their physical health needs. Health promotion for people with SMI should aim to raise awareness of modifiable high-risk lifestyle factors. Findings related to locus of control may provide a theoretical focus for clinical intervention in order to promote a much needed behavioural change in this marginalised group of people.</p

Bounds on 4D Conformal and Superconformal Field Theories

We derive general bounds on operator dimensions, central charges, and OPE coefficients in 4D conformal and N=1 superconformal field theories. In any CFT containing a scalar primary phi of dimension d we show that crossing symmetry of implies a completely general lower bound on the central charge c >= f_c(d). Similarly, in CFTs containing a complex scalar charged under global symmetries, we bound a combination of symmetry current two-point function coefficients tau^{IJ} and flavor charges. We extend these bounds to N=1 superconformal theories by deriving the superconformal block expansions for four-point functions of a chiral superfield Phi and its conjugate. In this case we derive bounds on the OPE coefficients of scalar operators appearing in the Phi x Phi* OPE, and show that there is an upper bound on the dimension of Phi* Phi when dim(Phi) is close to 1. We also present even more stringent bounds on c and tau^{IJ}. In supersymmetric gauge theories believed to flow to superconformal fixed points one can use anomaly matching to explicitly check whether these bounds are satisfied.Comment: 47 pages, 9 figures; V2: small corrections and clarification

Holographic GB gravity in arbitrary dimensions

We study the properties of the holographic CFT dual to Gauss-Bonnet gravity in general $D \ge 5$ dimensions. We establish the AdS/CFT dictionary and in particular relate the couplings of the gravitational theory to the universal couplings arising in correlators of the stress tensor of the dual CFT. This allows us to examine constraints on the gravitational couplings by demanding consistency of the CFT. In particular, one can demand positive energy fluxes in scattering processes or the causal propagation of fluctuations. We also examine the holographic hydrodynamics, commenting on the shear viscosity as well as the relaxation time. The latter allows us to consider causality constraints arising from the second-order truncated theory of hydrodynamics.Comment: 48 pages, 9 figures. v2: New discussion on free fields in subsection 3.3 and new appendix B on conformal tensor fields. Added comments on the relation between the central charge appearing in the two-point function and the "central charge" characterizing the entropy density in the discussion. References adde

Higher Spin Gauge Theory and Holography: The Three-Point Functions

In this paper we calculate the tree level three-point functions of Vasiliev's higher spin gauge theory in AdS4 and find agreement with the correlators of the free field theory of N massless scalars in three dimensions in the O(N) singlet sector. This provides substantial evidence that Vasiliev theory is dual to the free field theory, thus verifying a conjecture of Klebanov and Polyakov. We also find agreement with the critical O(N) vector model, when the bulk scalar field is subject to the alternative boundary condition such that its dual operator has classical dimension 2.Comment: 90 pages, 5 figures; v4, minor changes in the introductio

Impact of mental health problems on case fatality in male cancer patients

Background: Although mortality rates are elevated in psychiatric patients relative to their healthy counterparts, little is known about the impact of mental health on survival in people with cancer. / Methods and results: Among 16 498 Swedish men with cancer, survival was worse in those with a history of psychiatric hospital admissions: multiply-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing cancer mortality in men with and without psychiatric admissions: 1.59 (1.39, 1.83). / Conclusion: Survival in cancer patients is worse among those with a history of psychiatric disease. The mechanisms underlying this association should be further explored

Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of “moderate” and “extreme” El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST