Downer cows: a reanalysis of an old data set.

CAUL Read and Publish Agreement.AIMS: To compare the performance of two predictive models for the survival of downer cows. METHODS: The first model had been developed in 1987 using a dataset containing missing values, while the second, new model was developed on the same dataset but using modern data imputation and analytical methods. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations and a logistic regression model fitted to the imputed data, with survival or not as the outcome variable. The predictive ability of the model built on the imputed data was contrasted with the original prognostic model by testing them both on a second smaller but complete data set, collected contemporaneously with the development of the original model but from a different region of New Zealand. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cut point for the two models were calculated. RESULTS: The original 1987 model had a slightly higher accuracy than that of the new one with a sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.72-0.94) and a specificity of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.7-0.91), using a cut point for the probability of survival = 0.313. CONCLUSIONS: The original prognostic formula published by Clark et al. in 1987 performed as well as a modern model built on an imputed data set. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The use of a prognostic test based on the Clark model should remain an important part of the clinical examination of downer cows by New Zealand veterinarians.Abbreviations: AUC: Area under the curve; AST: Aspartate transaminase activity; CK: Creatine phosphokinase activity; GAM: Generalised additive model; NSAID: Non-steroidal-anti-inflammatory drugs; PCV: Packed cell volume.Publishe

Atomically precise placement of single dopants in Si

We demonstrate the controlled incorporation of P dopant atoms in Si(001), presenting a new path toward the creation of atomic-scale electronic devices. We present a detailed study of the interaction of PH3 with Si(001) and show that it is possible to thermally incorporate P atoms into Si(001) below the H-desorption temperature. Control over the precise spatial location at which P atoms are incorporated was achieved using STM H lithography. We demonstrate the positioning of single P atoms in Si with similar to1 nm accuracy and the creation of nanometer wide lines of incorporated P atoms

Supersymmetric sound in fluids

We consider the hydrodynamics of supersymmetric fluids. Supersymmetry is broken spontaneously and the low energy spectrum includes a fermionic massless mode, the $\mathit{phonino}$. We use two complementary approaches to describe the system: First, we construct a generating functional from which we derive the equations of motion of the fluid and of the phonino propagating through the fluid. We write the form of the leading corrections in the derivative expansion, and show that the so called diffusion terms in the supercurrent are in fact not dissipative. Second, we use an effective field theory approach which utilizes a non-linear realization of supersymmetry to analyze the interactions between phoninos and phonons, and demonstrate the conservation of entropy in ideal fluids. We comment on possible phenomenological consequences for gravitino physics in the early universe.Comment: Modified introduction and discussion of diffusion terms in the supercurren

New tuberculosis vaccines: advances in clinical development and modelling.

Tuberculosis remains a major source of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with 10 million cases and 1.5 million deaths in 2018. Achieving 'End TB' prevention and care goals by 2035 will likely require a new tuberculosis vaccine. The tuberculosis vaccine development pipeline has seen encouraging progress; however, questions around their population impact and implementation remain. Mathematical modelling investigates these questions to inform vaccine development and deployment strategies. We provide an update on the current vaccine development pipeline, and a systematic literature review of mathematical modelling of the epidemiological impact of new tuberculosis vaccines. Fourteen prophylactic tuberculosis vaccine candidates are currently in clinical trials. Two candidates have shown promise in phase II proof-of-concept efficacy trials: M72/AS01E demonstrated 49.7% (95% CI; 2.1, 74.2) protection against tuberculosis disease, and BCG revaccination demonstrated 45.4% (95% CI; 6.4, 68.1) protection against sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Since the last modelling review, new studies have investigated the epidemiological impact of differential vaccine characteristics, age targeting and spatial/risk group targeting. Critical research priorities for M72/AS01E include completing the currently in-design trial, powered to improve the precision of efficacy estimates, include uninfected populations and further assess safety and immunogenicity in HIV-infected people. For BCG revaccination, the priority is completing the ongoing confirmation of efficacy trial. Critical modelling gaps remain on the full value proposition of vaccines, comparisons with other interventions and more realistic implementation strategies. Using carefully designed trials and modelling, we must prepare for success, to ensure that new vaccines will be promptly received by those most in need

Sea-level constraints on the amplitude and source distribution of Meltwater Pulse 1A.

During the last deglaciation, sea levels rose as ice sheets retreated. This climate transition was punctuated by periods of more intense melting; the largest and most rapid of these—Meltwater Pulse 1A—occurred about 14,500 years ago, with rates of sea-level rise reaching approximately 4 m per century1, 2, 3. Such rates of rise suggest ice-sheet instability, but the meltwater sources are poorly constrained, thus limiting our understanding of the causes and impacts of the event4, 5, 6, 7. In particular, geophysical modelling studies constrained by tropical sea-level records1, 8, 9 suggest an Antarctic contribution of more than seven metres, whereas most reconstructions10 from Antarctica indicate no substantial change in ice-sheet volume around the time of Meltwater Pulse 1A. Here we use a glacial isostatic adjustment model to reinterpret tropical sea-level reconstructions from Barbados2, the Sunda Shelf3 and Tahiti1. According to our results, global mean sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A was between 8.6 and 14.6 m (95% probability). As for the melt partitioning, we find an allowable contribution from Antarctica of either 4.1 to 10.0 m or 0 to 6.9 m (95% probability), using two recent estimates11, 12 of the contribution from the North American ice sheets. We conclude that with current geologic constraints, the method applied here is unable to support or refute the possibility of a significant Antarctic contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A

Quantum oscillations in quasi-one-dimensional metals with spin-density-wave ground states

We consider the magnetoresistance oscillation phenomena in the Bechgaard salts (TMTSF)(2)X, where X = ClO4, PF6, and AsF6 in pulsed magnetic fields to 51 T. Of particular importance is the observation of a new magnetoresistance oscillation for X = ClO4 in its quenched state. In the absence of any Fermi-surface reconstruction due to anion order at low temperatures, all three materials exhibit nonmonotonic temperature dependence of the oscillation amplitude in the spin-density-wave (SDW) state. We discuss a model where, below a characteristic temperature T* within the SDW state, a magnetic breakdown gap opens. [S0163-1829(99)00904-2]

Parameterized Edge Hamiltonicity

We study the parameterized complexity of the classical Edge Hamiltonian Path problem and give several fixed-parameter tractability results. First, we settle an open question of Demaine et al. by showing that Edge Hamiltonian Path is FPT parameterized by vertex cover, and that it also admits a cubic kernel. We then show fixed-parameter tractability even for a generalization of the problem to arbitrary hypergraphs, parameterized by the size of a (supplied) hitting set. We also consider the problem parameterized by treewidth or clique-width. Surprisingly, we show that the problem is FPT for both of these standard parameters, in contrast to its vertex version, which is W-hard for clique-width. Our technique, which may be of independent interest, relies on a structural characterization of clique-width in terms of treewidth and complete bipartite subgraphs due to Gurski and Wanke

Electrical detection of 31P spin quantum states

In recent years, a variety of solid-state qubits has been realized, including quantum dots, superconducting tunnel junctions and point defects. Due to its potential compatibility with existing microelectronics, the proposal by Kane based on phosphorus donors in Si has also been pursued intensively. A key issue of this concept is the readout of the P quantum state. While electrical measurements of magnetic resonance have been performed on single spins, the statistical nature of these experiments based on random telegraph noise measurements has impeded the readout of single spin states. In this letter, we demonstrate the measurement of the spin state of P donor electrons in silicon and the observation of Rabi flops by purely electric means, accomplished by coherent manipulation of spin-dependent charge carrier recombination between the P donor and paramagnetic localized states at the Si/SiO2 interface via pulsed electrically detected magnetic resonance. The electron spin information is shown to be coupled through the hyperfine interaction with the P nucleus, which demonstrates the feasibility of a recombination-based readout of nuclear spins

Origin of acidic surface waters and the evolution of atmospheric chemistry on early Mars

Observations from in situ experiments and planetary orbiters have shown that the sedimentary rocks found at Meridiani Planum, Mars were formed in the presence of acidic surface waters. The water was thought to be brought to the surface by groundwater upwelling, and may represent the last vestiges of the widespread occurrence of liquid water on Mars. However, it is unclear why the surface waters were acidic. Here we use geochemical calculations, constrained by chemical and mineralogical data from the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity, to show that Fe oxidation and the precipitation of oxidized iron (Fe^(3+)) minerals generate excess acid with respect to the amount of base anions available in the rocks present in outcrop. We suggest that subsurface waters of near-neutral pH and rich in Fe^(2+) were rapidly acidified as iron was oxidized on exposure to O_2 or photo-oxidized by ultraviolet radiation at the martian surface. Temporal variation in surface acidity would have been controlled by the availability of liquid water, and as such, low-pH fluids could be a natural consequence of the aridification of the martian surface. Finally, because iron oxidation at Meridiani would have generated large amounts of gaseous H_2, ultimately derived from the reduction of H_2O, we conclude that surface geochemical processes would have affected the redox state of the early martian atmosphere