Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Bayesian molecular clock dating of species divergences in the genomics era

It has been five decades since the proposal of the molecular clock hypothesis, which states that the rate of evolution at the molecular level is constant through time and among species. This hypothesis has become a powerful tool in evolutionary biology, making it possible to use molecular sequences to estimate the geological ages of species divergence events. With recent advances in Bayesian clock dating methodology and the explosive accumulation of genetic sequence data, molecular clock dating has found widespread applications, from tracking virus pandemics, to studying the macroevolutionary process of speciation and extinction, to estimating a timescale for Life on Earth

Beyond directed evolution: Darwinian selection as a tool for synthetic biology

Synthetic biology is an engineering approach that seeks to design and construct new biological parts, devices and systems, as well as to re-design existing components. However, rationally designed synthetic circuits may not work as expected due to the context-dependence of biological parts. Darwinian selection, the main mechanism through which evolution works, is a major force in creating biodiversity and may be a powerful tool for synthetic biology. This article reviews selection-based techniques and proposes strict Darwinian selection as an alternative approach for the identification and characterization of parts. Additionally, a strategy for fine-tuning of relatively complex circuits by coupling them to a master standard circuit is discussed

Far-Persons

I argue for the moral relevance of a category of individuals I characterize as far-persons. Following Gary Varner, I distinguish near-persons, animals with a " robust autonoetic consciousness " but lacking an adult human's " biographical sense of self, " from the merely sentient, those animals living "entirely in the present." I note the possibility of a third class. Far-persons lack a biographical sense of self, possess a weak autonoetic consciousness, and are able to travel mentally through time a distance that exceeds the capacities of the merely sentient. Far-persons are conscious of and exercise control over short-term cognitive states, states limited by their temporal duration. The animals in question, human and nonhuman, consciously choose among various strategies available to them to achieve their ends, making them subjects of what I call "lyrical experience:" brief and potentially intense pleasures and pains. But their ends expire minute-by-minute, not stretching beyond, I say metaphorically, the present hour. I conclude by discussing the moral status of far-persons

Short-Term Exposure of Multipotent Stromal Cells to Low Oxygen Increases Their Expression of CX3CR1 and CXCR4 and Their Engraftment In Vivo

The ability of stem/progenitor cells to migrate and engraft into host tissues is key to their potential use in gene and cell therapy. Among the cells of interest are the adherent cells from bone marrow, referred to as mesenchymal stem cells or multipotent stromal cells (MSC). Since the bone marrow environment is hypoxic, with oxygen tensions ranging from 1% to 7%, we decided to test whether hypoxia can upregulate chemokine receptors and enhance the ability of human MSCs to engraft in vivo. Short-term exposure of MSCs to 1% oxygen increased expression of the chemokine receptors CX3CR1and CXCR4, both as mRNA and as protein. After 1-day exposure to low oxygen, MSCs increased in vitro migration in response to the fractalkine and SDF-1α in a dose dependent manner. Blocking antibodies for the chemokine receptors significantly decreased the migration. Xenotypic grafting into early chick embryos demonstrated cells from hypoxic cultures engrafted more efficiently than cells from normoxic cultures and generated a variety of cell types in host tissues. The results suggest that short-term culture of MSCs under hypoxic conditions may provide a general method of enhancing their engraftment in vivo into a variety of tissues

Evolutionary Dead End in the Galápagos: Divergence of Sexual Signals in the Rarest of Darwin's Finches

Understanding the mechanisms underlying speciation remains a challenge in evolutionary biology. The adaptive radiation of Darwin's finches is a prime example of species formation, and their study has revealed many important insights into evolutionary processes. Here, we report striking differences in mating signals (songs), morphology and genetics between the two remnant populations of Darwin's mangrove finch Camarhynchus heliobates, one of the rarest species in the world. We also show that territorial males exhibited strong discrimination of sexual signals by locality: in response to foreign songs, males responded weaker than to songs from their own population. Female responses were infrequent and weak but gave approximately similar results. Our findings not only suggest speciation in the mangrove finch, thereby providing strong support for the central role of sexual signals during speciation, but they have also implications for the conservation of this iconic bird. If speciation is complete, the eastern species will face imminent extinction, because it has a population size of only 5–10 individuals

An Inhibitory Sex Pheromone Tastes Bitter for Drosophila Males

Sexual behavior requires animals to distinguish between the sexes and to respond appropriately to each of them. In Drosophila melanogaster, as in many insects, cuticular hydrocarbons are thought to be involved in sex recognition and in mating behavior, but there is no direct neuronal evidence of their pheromonal effect. Using behavioral and electrophysiological measures of responses to natural and synthetic compounds, we show that Z-7-tricosene, a Drosophila male cuticular hydrocarbon, acts as a sex pheromone and inhibits male-male courtship. These data provide the first direct demonstration that an insect cuticular hydrocarbon is detected as a sex pheromone. Intriguingly, we show that a particular type of gustatory neurons of the labial palps respond both to Z-7-tricosene and to bitter stimuli. Cross-adaptation between Z-7-tricosene and bitter stimuli further indicates that these two very different substances are processed by the same neural pathways. Furthermore, the two substances induced similar behavioral responses both in courtship and feeding tests. We conclude that the inhibitory pheromone tastes bitter to the fly

Mathematizing Darwin

Ernst Mayr called the first part of the evolutionary synthesis the ‘Fisherian synthesis’ on account of the dominant role played by R.A. Fisher in forging a mathematical theory of natural selection together with J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright in the decade 1922–1932. It is here argued that Fisher’s contribution relied on a close reading of Darwin’s work to a much greater extent than did the contributions of Haldane and Wright, that it was synthetic in contrast to their analytic approach and that it was greatly influenced by his friendship with the Darwin family, particularly with Charles’s son Leonard

An adaptive annual rhythm in the sex of first pigeon eggs

When the reproductive value of male and female offspring varies differentially, parents are predicted to adjust the sex ratio of their offspring to maximize their fitness (Trivers and Willard, Science 179:90–92, 1973). Two factors have been repeatedly linked to skews in avian offspring sex ratio. First, laying date can affect offspring sex ratio when the sexes differ in age of first reproduction, such that the more slowly maturing sex is overproduced early in the season. Second, position of the egg in the laying sequence of a clutch may affect sex ratio bias since manipulating the sex of the first eggs may be least costly to the mother. We studied both factors in two non-domesticated pigeon species. Both the Wood pigeon (Columba palumbus) and the Rock pigeon (Columba livia) have long breeding seasons and lay two-egg clutches. In the field, we determined the sex of Wood pigeon nestlings. In Rock pigeons, housed in captivity outdoors, we determined embryo sex after 3 days of incubation. On the basis of their sex-specific age of first reproduction, we predicted that males, maturing at older age than females, should be produced in majority early and females later in the year. This was confirmed for both species. The bias was restricted to first eggs. Rock pigeons produced clutches throughout the year and show that the sex of the first egg followed an annual cycle. To our knowledge, this study presents the first evidence of a full annual rhythm in adaptive sex allocation in birds. We suggest that this reflects an endogenous seasonal program in primary sex ratio controlled by a preovulatory mechanism

Genetic Differentiation, Structure, and a Transition Zone among Populations of the Pitcher Plant Moth Exyra semicrocea: Implications for Conservation

Pitcher plant bogs, or carnivorous plant wetlands, have experienced extensive habitat loss and fragmentation throughout the southeastern United States Coastal Plain, resulting in an estimated reduction to <3% of their former range. This situation has lead to increased management attention of these habitats and their carnivorous plant species. However, conservation priorities focus primarily on the plants since little information currently exists on other community members, such as their endemic arthropod biota. Here, we investigated the population structure of one of these, the obligate pitcher plant moth Exyra semicrocea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequences. Examination of 221 individuals from 11 populations across eight southeastern US states identified 51 unique haplotypes. These haplotypes belonged to one of two divergent (∼1.9–3.0%) lineages separated by the Mississippi alluvial plain. Populations of the West Gulf Coastal Plain exhibited significant genetic structure, contrasting with similarly distanced populations east of the Mississippi alluvial plain. In the eastern portion of the Coastal Plain, an apparent transition zone exists between two regionally distinct population groups, with a well-established genetic discontinuity for other organisms coinciding with this zone. The structure of E. semicrocea appears to have been influenced by patchy pitcher plant bog habitats in the West Gulf Coastal Plain as well as impacts of Pleistocene interglacials on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. These findings, along with potential extirpation of E. semicrocea at four visited, but isolated, sites highlight the need to consider other endemic or associated community members when managing and restoring pitcher plant bog habitats