The effect of targeted dropsonde observations during the 1999 winter storm reconnaissance program

In this paper, the effects of targeted dropsonde observations on operational global numerical weather analyses and forecasts made at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are evaluated. The data were collected during the 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance field program at locations that were found optimal by the ensemble transform technique for reducing specific forecast errors over the continental United States and Alaska. Two parallel analysis-forecast cycles are compared; one assimilates all operationally available data including those from the targeted dropsondes, whereas the other is identical except that it excludes all dropsonde data collected during the program. It was found that large analysis errors appear in areas of intense baroclinic energy conversion over the northeast Pacific and are strongly associated with errors in the first-guess field. The "signal," defined by the difference between analysis-forecast cycles with and without the dropsonde data, propagates at an average speed of 30 degrees per day along the storm track to the east. Hovmoller diagrams and eddy statistics suggest that downstream development plays a significant role in spreading out the effect of the dropsondes in space and time. On average, the largest rms surface pressure errors are reduced by 10%-20% associated with the eastward-propagating leading edge of the signal. The dropsonde data seem to be more effective in reducing forecast errors when zonal how prevails over the eastern Pacific. Results from combined verification statistics (based on surface pressure, tropospheric winds, and precipitation amount) indicate that the dropsonde data improved the forecasts in 18 of the 25 targeted cases, while the impact was negative (neutral) in only 5 (2) cases

Displacement and Resettlement: Understanding the Role of Climate Change in Contemporary Migration

How do we understand displacement and resettlement in the context of climate change? This chapter outlines challenges and debates in the literature connecting climate change to the growing global flow of people. We begin with an outline of the literature on environmental migration, specifically the definitions, measurements, and forms of environmental migration. The discussion then moves to challenges in the reception of migrants, treating the current scholarship on migrant resettlement. We detail a selection of cases in which the environment plays a role in the displacement of a population, including sea level rise in Pacific Island States, cyclonic storms in Bangladesh, and desertification in West Africa, as well as the role of deforestation in South America’s Southern Cone as a driver of both climate change and migration. We outline examples of each, highlighting the complex set of losses and damages incurred by populations in each case

Progress on lead-free metal halide perovskites for photovoltaic applications: a review

ABSTRACT: Metal halide perovskites have revolutionized the field of solution-processable photovoltaics. Within just a few years, the power conversion efficiencies of perovskite-based solar cells have been improved significantly to over 20%, which makes them now already comparably efficient to silicon-based photovoltaics. This breakthrough in solution-based photovoltaics, however, has the drawback that these high efficiencies can only be obtained with lead-based perovskites and this will arguably be a substantial hurdle for various applications of perovskite-based photovoltaics and their acceptance in society, even though the amounts of lead in the solar cells are low. This fact opened up a new research field on lead-free metal halide perovskites, which is currently remarkably vivid. We took this as incentive to review this emerging research field and discuss possible alternative elements to replace lead in metal halide perovskites and the properties of the corresponding perovskite materials based on recent theoretical and experimental studies. Up to now, tin-based perovskites turned out to be most promising in terms of power conversion efficiency; however, also the toxicity of these tin-based perovskites is argued. In the focus of the research community are other elements as well including germanium, copper, antimony, or bismuth, and the corresponding perovskite compounds are already showing promising properties. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text