Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions. Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori). An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period)

Seismically induced landslide hazard and exposure modelling in Southern California based on the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake event

Quantitative modelling of landslide hazard, as opposed to landslide susceptibility, as a function of the earthquake trigger is vital in understanding and assessing future potential exposure to landsliding. Logistic regression analysis is a method commonly used to assess susceptibility to landsliding; however, estimating probability of landslide hazard as a result of an earthquake trigger is rarely undertaken. This paper utilises a very detailed landslide inventory map and a comprehensive dataset on peak ground acceleration for the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake event to fit a landslide hazard logistic regression model. The model demonstrates a high success rate for estimating probability of landslides as a result of earthquake shaking. Seven earthquake magnitude scenarios were simulated using the Open Source Seismic Hazard Analysis (OpenSHA) application to simulate peak ground acceleration, a covariate of landsliding, for each event. The exposure of assets such as population, housing and roads to high levels of shaking and high probabilities of landsliding was estimated for each scenario. There has been urban development in the Northridge region since 1994, leading to an increase in prospective exposure of assets to the earthquake and landslide hazards in the event of a potential future earthquake. As the earthquake scenario magnitude increases, the impact from earthquake shaking initially increases then quickly levels out, but potential losses from landslides increase at a rapid rate. The modelling approach, as well as the specific model, developed in this paper can be used to estimate landslide probabilities as a result of an earthquake event for any scenario where the peak ground acceleration variable is available

Derivation of consistent hard rock (1000<Vs<3000 m/s) GMPEs from surface and down-hole recordings: Analysis of KiK-net data

A key component in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of ground motion for hard rock sites, either for applications to installations built on this site category, or as an input motion for site response computation. Empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the traditional basis for estimating ground motion while VS30 is the basis to account for site conditions. As current GMPEs are poorly constrained for VS30 larger than 1000 m/s, the presently used approach for estimating hazard on hard rock sites consists of “host-to-target” adjustment techniques based on VS30 and κ0 values. The present study investigates alternative methods on the basis of a KiK-net dataset corresponding to stiff and rocky sites with 500 < VS30 < 1350 m/s. The existence of sensor pairs (one at the surface and one in depth) and the availability of P- and S-wave velocity profiles allow deriving two “virtual” datasets associated to outcropping hard rock sites with VS in the range [1000, 3000] m/s with two independent corrections: 1/down-hole recordings modified from within motion to outcropping motion with a depth correction factor, 2/surface recordings deconvolved from their specific site response derived through 1D simulation. GMPEs with simple functional forms are then developed, including a VS30 site term. They lead to consistent and robust hard-rock motion estimates, which prove to be significantly lower than host-to-target adjustment predictions. The difference can reach a factor up to 3–4 beyond 5 Hz for very hard-rock, but decreases for decreasing frequency until vanishing below 2 Hz