Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model\u27s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with \u3c 5-15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from similar to 4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9-44 m slip and M-w 8.7-9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A. D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22-30 m slip) and medium (14-19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%-95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for landuse planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (3644 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones

New constraints on coseismic slip during southern Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes over the past 4600 years implied by tsunami deposits and marine turbidites

This correction stands to correct Figure 7c listing a low minimum slip of 12 m for Case 2 instead of the correct value of 8 m, as stated in the body of the text and depicted on the chart of cumulative slip. The corrected chart explanation and caption are shown below. This error did not affect any of the findings of the paper or the chart itself. This is a correction to the original article

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model

BACKGROUND: Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. METHODS: The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. RESULTS: The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. CONCLUSIONS: A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables

Genetic Structure of the Polymorphic Metrosideros (Myrtaceae) Complex in the Hawaiian Islands Using Nuclear Microsatellite Data

Five species of Metrosideros (Myrtaceae) are recognized in the Hawaiian Islands, including the widespread M. polymorpha, and are characterized by a multitude of distinctive, yet overlapping, habit, ecological, and morphological forms. It remains unclear, despite several previous studies, whether the morphological variation within Hawaiian Metrosideros is due to hybridization, genetic polymorphism, phenotypic plasticity, or some combination of these processes. The Hawaiian Metrosideros complex has become a model system to study ecology and evolution; however this is the first study to use microsatellite data for addressing inter-island patterns of variation from across the Hawaiian Islands.Ten nuclear microsatellite loci were genotyped from 143 individuals of Metrosideros. We took advantage of the bi-parental inheritance and rapid mutation rate of these data to examine the validity of the current taxonomy and to investigate whether Metrosideros plants from the same island are more genetically similar than plants that are morphologically similar. The Bayesian algorithm of the program structure was used to define genetic groups within Hawaiian Metrosideros and the closely related taxon M. collina from the Marquesas and Austral Islands. Several standard and nested AMOVAs were conducted to test whether the genetic diversity is structured geographically or taxonomically.The results suggest that Hawaiian Metrosideros have dynamic gene flow, with genetic and morphological diversity structured not simply by geography or taxonomy, but as a result of parallel evolution on islands following rampant island-island dispersal, in addition to ancient chloroplast capture. Results also suggest that the current taxonomy requires major revisions in order to reflect the genetic structure revealed in the microsatellite data

Hippocampal - diencephalic - cingulate networks for memory and emotion: An anatomical guide

This review brings together current knowledge from tract tracing studies to update and reconsider those limbic connections initially highlighted by Papez for their presumed role in emotion. These connections link hippocampal and parahippocampal regions with the mammillary bodies, the anterior thalamic nuclei, and the cingulate gyrus, all structures now strongly implicated in memory functions. An additional goal of this review is to describe the routes taken by the various connections within this network. The original descriptions of these limbic connections saw their interconnecting pathways forming a serial circuit that began and finished in the hippocampal formation. It is now clear that with the exception of the mammillary bodies, these various sites are multiply interconnected with each other, including many reciprocal connections. In addition, these same connections are topographically organised, creating further subsystems. This complex pattern of connectivity helps explain the difficulty of interpreting the functional outcome of damage to any individual site within the network. For these same reasons, Papez’s initial concept of a loop beginning and ending in the hippocampal formation needs to be seen as a much more complex system of hippocampal–diencephalic–cingulate connections. The functions of these multiple interactions might be better viewed as principally providing efferent information from the posterior medial temporal lobe. Both a subcortical diencephalic route (via the fornix) and a cortical cingulate route (via retrosplenial cortex) can be distinguished. These routes provide indirect pathways for hippocampal interactions with prefrontal cortex, with the preponderance of both sets of connections arising from the more posterior hippocampal regions. These multi-stage connections complement the direct hippocampal projections to prefrontal cortex, which principally arise from the anterior hippocampus, thereby creating longitudinal functional differences along the anterior–posterior plane of the hippocampus

Stochastically Gating Ion Channels Enable Patterned Spike Firing through Activity-Dependent Modulation of Spike Probability

The transformation of synaptic input into patterns of spike output is a fundamental operation that is determined by the particular complement of ion channels that a neuron expresses. Although it is well established that individual ion channel proteins make stochastic transitions between conducting and non-conducting states, most models of synaptic integration are deterministic, and relatively little is known about the functional consequences of interactions between stochastically gating ion channels. Here, we show that a model of stellate neurons from layer II of the medial entorhinal cortex implemented with either stochastic or deterministically gating ion channels can reproduce the resting membrane properties of stellate neurons, but only the stochastic version of the model can fully account for perithreshold membrane potential fluctuations and clustered patterns of spike output that are recorded from stellate neurons during depolarized states. We demonstrate that the stochastic model implements an example of a general mechanism for patterning of neuronal output through activity-dependent changes in the probability of spike firing. Unlike deterministic mechanisms that generate spike patterns through slow changes in the state of model parameters, this general stochastic mechanism does not require retention of information beyond the duration of a single spike and its associated afterhyperpolarization. Instead, clustered patterns of spikes emerge in the stochastic model of stellate neurons as a result of a transient increase in firing probability driven by activation of HCN channels during recovery from the spike afterhyperpolarization. Using this model, we infer conditions in which stochastic ion channel gating may influence firing patterns in vivo and predict consequences of modifications of HCN channel function for in vivo firing patterns

Lack of Evidence for Neonatal Misoprostol Neurodevelopmental Toxicity in C57BL6/J Mice

Misoprostol is a synthetic analogue of prostaglandin E1 that is administered to women at high doses to induce uterine contractions for early pregnancy termination and at low doses to aid in cervical priming during labor. Because of the known teratogenic effects of misoprostol when given during gestation and its effects on axonal growth in vitro, we examined misoprostol for its potential as a neurodevelopmental toxicant when administered to neonatal C57BL6/J mice. Mice were injected subcutaneously (s.c.) with 0.4, 4 or 40 µg/kg misoprostol on postnatal day 7, the approximate developmental stage in mice of human birth, after which neonatal somatic growth, and sensory and motor system development were assessed. These doses were selected to span the range of human exposure used to induce labor. In addition, adult mice underwent a battery of behavioral tests relevant to neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism including tests for anxiety, stereotyped behaviors, social communication and interactions, and learning and memory. No significant effects of exposure were found for any measure of development or behavioral endpoints. In conclusion, the results of the present study in C57BL/6J mice do not provide support for neurodevelopmental toxicity after misoprostol administration approximating human doses and timed to coincide with the developmental stage of human birth

Resolving the neural circuits of anxiety

Although anxiety disorders represent a major societal problem demanding new therapeutic targets, these efforts have languished in the absence of a mechanistic understanding of this subjective emotional state. While it is impossible to know with certainty the subjective experience of a rodent, rodent models hold promise in dissecting well-conserved limbic circuits. The application of modern approaches in neuroscience has already begun to unmask the neural circuit intricacies underlying anxiety by allowing direct examination of hypotheses drawn from existing psychological concepts. This information points toward an updated conceptual model for what neural circuit perturbations could give rise to pathological anxiety and thereby provides a roadmap for future therapeutic development.National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (U.S.) (NIH Director’s New Innovator Award DP2-DK-102256-01)National Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (NIH) R01-MH102441-01)JPB Foundatio

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac