Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multimodel mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISSPUCCINI)and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23Wm−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08Wm−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05Wm−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05Wm−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1Wm−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/)

Bimodal distribution of free tropospheric ozone over the tropical western Pacific revealed by airborne observations

A recent airborne field campaign over the remote western Pacific obtained the first intensive in situ ozone sampling over the warm pool region from oceanic surface to 15-km altitude (near 360-K potential temperature level). The new data set quantifies ozone in the tropical tropopause layer under significant influence of convective outflow. The analysis further reveals a bimodal distribution of free tropospheric ozone mixing ratio. A primary mode, narrowly distributed around 20-ppbv, dominates the troposphere from the surface to 15-km. A secondary mode, broadly distributed with a 60-ppbv modal value, is prominent between 3 and 8-km (320-K to 340-K potential temperature levels). The latter mode occurs as persistent layers of ozone-rich drier air and is characterized by relative humidity under 45%. Possible controlling mechanisms are discussed. These findings provide new insight into the physical interpretation of the >S>-shaped mean ozone profiles in the tropics.Peer Reviewe

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change

Estudo da energética modal para episódios de ZCAS. Parte I: análise observacional Study of the modal energetics for SACZ episodes. Part I: observational analyses

As trocas horizontais e verticais de energia para um composto de sete episódios de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS), foram estudadas a partir da decomposição em modos normais, considerando-se a partição vertical de energia entre os modos externo e internos, e as interferências entre os modos horizontais de oscilação Rossby, Kelvin, Misto Rossby-Gravidade, Gravidade Oeste e Leste. Um máximo de porcentagem de energia total (aproximadamente 60%) é observado para os modos internos 4 a 7, com alturas equivalentes entre 100 e 600 metros, especialmente sobre grande parte da América do Sul central e próximo ao equador, incluindo a região da ZCAS. À medida que a latitude aumenta, a energia é distribuída para os modos mais externos (n=1 a 3). Para a partição horizontal de energia, as maiores contribuições foram obtidas para as auto-interações dos modos Rossby e Kelvin e interações cruzadas Rossby-Kelvin, em todas as categorias de modos verticais, sendo estas últimas responsáveis pelas interferências construtivas de energia na região da ZCAS. As interações entre modos verticais mostraram um aumento da porcentagem de energia dos Baixos Níveis para a Estratosfera, com máxima interferência positiva (negativa) de energia em Altos Níveis (Estratosfera), para os modos internos 4 a 7.<br>The horizontal and vertical energy exchanges for a composite of seven South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) episodes were studied by expansion into normal mode functions, with an emphasis on the vertical energy partition between external and internal modes and on the energy interactions within and among various horizontal oscillation modes: Rossby, Kelvin, Mixed Rossby-Gravity and West and East Gravity. A maximum share of the total energy (about 60%) was found in the 4th to 7th internal modes at equivalent highs between 100 and 600 meters, especially over large part of the central South America and near the equator including the SACZ region. As the latitude increases, the energy is distributed towards the lower order modes (n = 1 to 3). For the horizontal energy partition, the most expressive contributions were obtained for the self-interactions of the Rossby and Kelvin modes and for Rossby-Kelvin cross interactions in all vertical mode categories. The Rossby-Kelvin cross interactions constituted the main process for constructive energy interferences in the SACZ region. The vertical mode interactions indicated that the percentage of total energy increases from low levels to the stratosphere with maximum positive (negative) interferences in high levels (stratosphere), for the 4th to 7th internal modes

Issues in stratosphere-troposphere coupling

An overview is given of current issues concerning the coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The tropopause region, more generally the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, is the region of direct contact where exchange of material takes place. Dynamical coupling through angular momentum transfer by waves occurs nonlocally, and provides a generally negative torque on the stratosphere which drives an equator-to-pole circulation (i.e., towards the Earth’s axis of rotation). This wave-driven circulation is the principal mechanism for intraseasonal and interannual variability in the extratropical stratosphere. Although such variability is generally dynamical in origin, there are important chemical and radiative feedbacks. The location of the tropopause has implications for radiative forcing of climate, through its effect on the distribution of relatively short-lived greenhouse gases (ozone and water vapour). Some outstanding puzzles in our current understanding are identified. Attention is focused on possible climate sensitivities, and how these may be tested and constrained. Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a fully interactive radiative-chemical-dynamical general circulation model, are used to illustrate some of the points