Spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing in summer 2006: Model evaluation and source apportionment

Regional aerosol model calculations were made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and WRF-chem models to study spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing, China, in the summer of 2006, when the Campaigns of Air Quality Research in Beijing and Surrounding Region 2006 (CAREBeijing) intensive campaign was conducted. Model calculations captured temporal variations of primary (such as elemental carbon. (EC)) and secondary (such as sulfate) aerosols observed in and around Beijing. The spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth observed by the MODTS satellite sensors were also reproduced over northeast China. Model calculations showed distinct differences in spatial distributions between primary and secondary aerosols in association with synoptic-scale meteorology. Secondary aerosols increased in air around Beijing on a scale of about 1000 × 1000 km2 under an anticyclonic pressure system. This air mass was transported northward from the high anthropogenic emission area extending south of Beijing with continuous photochemical production. Subsequent cold front passage brought clean air from the north, and polluted air around Beijing was swept to the south of Beijing. This cycle was repeated about once a week and was found to be responsible for observed enhancements/reductions of aerosols at the intensive measurement sites. In contrast to secondary aerosols, the spatial distributions of primary aerosols (EC) reflected those of emissions, resulting in only slight variability despite the changes in synopticscale meteorology. In accordance with these results, source apportionment simulations revealed that primary aerosols around Beijing were controlled by emissions within 100 km around Beijing within the preceding 24 h, while emissions as far as 500 km and within the preceding 3 days were found to affect secondary aerosols. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union

WRF-Chem model predictions of the regional impacts of N2O5 heterogeneous processes on night-time chemistry over north-western Europe

Abstract. Chemical modelling studies have been conducted over north-western Europe in summer conditions, showing that night-time dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5) heterogeneous reactive uptake is important regionally in modulating particulate nitrate and has a~modest influence on oxidative chemistry. Results from Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulations, run with a detailed volatile organic compound (VOC) gas-phase chemistry scheme and the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) sectional aerosol scheme, were compared with a series of airborne gas and particulate measurements made over the UK in July 2010. Modelled mixing ratios of key gas-phase species were reasonably accurate (correlations with measurements of 0.7–0.9 for NO2 and O3). However modelled loadings of particulate species were less accurate (correlation with measurements for particulate sulfate and ammonium were between 0.0 and 0.6). Sulfate mass loadings were particularly low (modelled means of 0.5–0.7 μg kg−1air, compared with measurements of 1.0–1.5 μg kg−1air). Two flights from the campaign were used as test cases – one with low relative humidity (RH) (60–70%), the other with high RH (80–90%). N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry was found to not be important in the low-RH test case; but in the high-RH test case it had a strong effect and significantly improved the agreement between modelled and measured NO3 and N2O5. When the model failed to capture atmospheric RH correctly, the modelled NO3 and N2O5 mixing ratios for these flights differed significantly from the measurements. This demonstrates that, for regional modelling which involves heterogeneous processes, it is essential to capture the ambient temperature and water vapour profiles. The night-time NO3 oxidation of VOCs across the whole region was found to be 100–300 times slower than the daytime OH oxidation of these compounds. The difference in contribution was less for alkenes (× 80) and comparable for dimethylsulfide (DMS). However the suppression of NO3 mixing ratios across the domain by N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry has only a very slight, negative, influence on this oxidative capacity. The influence on regional particulate nitrate mass loadings is stronger. Night-time N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry maintains the production of particulate nitrate within polluted regions: when this process is taken into consideration, the daytime peak (for the 95th percentile) of PM10 nitrate mass loadings remains around 5.6 μg kg−1air, but the night-time minimum increases from 3.5 to 4.6 μg kg−1air. The sustaining of higher particulate mass loadings through the night by this process improves model skill at matching measured aerosol nitrate diurnal cycles and will negatively impact on regional air quality, requiring this process to be included in regional models. This work was supported by the NERC RONOCO project NE/F004656/1. S. Archer-Nicholls was supported by a NERC quota studentship.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared at http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/1385/2015/acp-15-1385-2015.pd

Modeling regional aerosol variability over California and its sensitivity to emissions and long-range transport during the 2010 CalNex and CARES campaigns

Abstract. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) in simulating the spatial and temporal variations in aerosol mass, composition, and size over California is quantified using measurements collected during the California Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Experiment (CalNex) and the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) conducted during May and June of 2010. The extensive meteorological, trace gas, and aerosol measurements collected at surface sites and along aircraft and ship transects during CalNex and CARES were combined with operational monitoring network measurements to create a single dataset that was used to evaluate the one configuration of the model. Simulations were performed that examined the sensitivity of regional variations in aerosol concentrations to anthropogenic emissions and to long-range transport of aerosols into the domain obtained from a global model. The configuration of WRF-Chem used in this study is shown to reproduce the overall synoptic conditions, thermally-driven circulations, and boundary layer structure observed in region that controls the transport and mixing of trace gases and aerosols. However, sub-grid scale variability in the meteorology and emissions as well as uncertainties in the treatment of secondary organic aerosol chemistry likely contribute to errors at a primary surface sampling site located at the edge of the Los Angeles basin. Differences among the sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the aerosol layers over the central valley detected by lidar measurements likely resulted from lofting and recirculation of local anthropogenic emissions along the Sierra Nevada. Reducing the default emissions inventory by 50% led to an overall improvement in many simulated trace gases and black carbon aerosol at most sites and along most aircraft flight paths; however, simulated organic aerosol was closer to observed when there were no adjustments to the primary organic aerosol emissions. The model performance for some aerosol species was not uniform over the region, and we found that sulfate was better simulated over northern California whereas nitrate was better simulated over southern California. While the overall spatial and temporal variability of aerosols and their precursors were simulated reasonably well, we show cases where the local transport of some aerosol plumes were either too slow or too fast, which adversely affects the statistics regarding the differences between observed and simulated quantities. Comparisons with lidar and in-situ measurements indicate that long-range transport of aerosols from the global model was likely too high in the free troposphere even though their concentrations were relatively low. This bias led to an over-prediction in aerosol optical depth by as much as a factor of two that offset the under-predictions of boundary-layer extinction resulting primarily from local emissions. Lowering the boundary conditions of aerosol concentrations by 50% greatly reduced the bias in simulated aerosol optical depth for all regions of California. This study shows that quantifying regional-scale variations in aerosol radiative forcing and determining the relative role of emissions from local and distant sources is challenging during "clean" conditions and that a wide array of measurements are needed to ensure model predictions are correct for the right reasons. In this regard, the combined CalNex and CARES datasets are an ideal testbed that can be used to evaluate aerosol models in great detail and develop improved treatments for aerosol processes

Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator

The nature and origin of organic aerosol in the atmosphere remain unclear. The gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that constitute primary organic aerosols (POAs) and the multigenerational chemical aging of SVOCs are particularly poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry), can be a useful tool to describe emissions of POA and its chemical evolution. However, the evaluation of model uncertainty and the optimal model parameterization may be expensive to probe using only WRF-Chem simulations. Gaussian process emulators, trained on simulations from relatively few WRF-Chem simulations, are capable of reproducing model results and estimating the sources of model uncertainty within a defined range of model parameters. In this study, a WRF-Chem VBS parameterization is proposed; we then generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of 111 model runs, perturbing 10 parameters of the WRF-Chem model relating to organic aerosol emissions and the VBS oxidation reactions. This allowed us to cover the model's uncertainty space and to compare outputs from each run to aerosol mass spectrometer observations of organic aerosol concentrations and O:C ratios measured in New Delhi, India. The simulations spanned the organic aerosol concentrations measured with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, they also highlighted potential structural errors in the model that may be related to unsuitable diurnal cycles in the emissions and/or failure to adequately represent the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. While the structural errors prevented us from clearly identifying an optimized VBS approach in WRF-Chem, we were able to apply the emulator in the following two periods: the full period (1–29 May) and a subperiod period of 14:00–16:00 h LT (local time) on 1–29 May. The combination of emulator analysis and model evaluation metrics allowed us to identify plausible parameter combinations for the analyzed periods. We demonstrate that the methodology presented in this study can be used to determine the model uncertainty and to identify the appropriate parameter combination for the VBS approach and hence to provide valuable information to improve our understanding of OA production

Evolutionary Sequence Modeling for Discovery of Peptide Hormones

There are currently a large number of “orphan” G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) whose endogenous ligands (peptide hormones) are unknown. Identification of these peptide hormones is a difficult and important problem. We describe a computational framework that models spatial structure along the genomic sequence simultaneously with the temporal evolutionary path structure across species and show how such models can be used to discover new functional molecules, in particular peptide hormones, via cross-genomic sequence comparisons. The computational framework incorporates a priori high-level knowledge of structural and evolutionary constraints into a hierarchical grammar of evolutionary probabilistic models. This computational method was used for identifying novel prohormones and the processed peptide sites by producing sequence alignments across many species at the functional-element level. Experimental results with an initial implementation of the algorithm were used to identify potential prohormones by comparing the human and non-human proteins in the Swiss-Prot database of known annotated proteins. In this proof of concept, we identified 45 out of 54 prohormones with only 44 false positives. The comparison of known and hypothetical human and mouse proteins resulted in the identification of a novel putative prohormone with at least four potential neuropeptides. Finally, in order to validate the computational methodology, we present the basic molecular biological characterization of the novel putative peptide hormone, including its identification and regional localization in the brain. This species comparison, HMM-based computational approach succeeded in identifying a previously undiscovered neuropeptide from whole genome protein sequences. This novel putative peptide hormone is found in discreet brain regions as well as other organs. The success of this approach will have a great impact on our understanding of GPCRs and associated pathways and help to identify new targets for drug development

Seizure prediction : ready for a new era

Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge colleagues in the international seizure prediction group for valuable discussions. L.K. acknowledges funding support from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1130468) and the James S. McDonnell Foundation (220020419) and acknowledges the contribution of Dean R. Freestone at the University of Melbourne, Australia, to the creation of Fig. 3.Peer reviewedPostprin

Transition from high- to low-NOx control of night-time oxidation in the southeastern US

The influence of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on daytime atmospheric oxidation cycles is well known, with clearly defined high- and low-NOx regimes. During the day, oxidation reactions—which contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone—are proportional to NOx at low levels, and inversely proportional to NOx at high levels. Night-time oxidation of volatile organic compounds also influences secondary pollutants but lacks a similar clear definition of high- and low-NOx regimes, even though such regimes exist. Decreases in anthropogenic NOx emissions in the US and Europe coincided with increases in Asia over the last 10 to 20 years, and have altered both daytime and nocturnal oxidation cycles. Here we present measurements of chemical species in the lower atmosphere from day- and night-time research flights over the southeast US in 1999 and 2013, supplemented by atmospheric chemistry simulations. We find that night-time oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) is NOx-limited when the ratio of NOx to BVOC is below approximately 0.5, and becomes independent of NOx at higher ratios. The night-time ratio of NOx to BVOC in 2013 averaged 0.6 aloft. We suggest that night-time oxidation in the southeast US is in transition between NOx-dominated and ozone-dominated

Uncertainty in modeling dust mass balance and radiative forcing from size parameterization

This study examines the uncertainties in simulating mass balance and radiative forcing of mineral dust due to biases in the dust size parameterization. Simulations are conducted quasi-globally (180° W-180° E and 60° S-70° N) using the WRF-Chem model with three different approaches to represent dust size distribution (8-bin, 4-bin, and 3-mode). The biases in the 3-mode or 4-bin approaches against a relatively more accurate 8-bin approach in simulating dust mass balance and radiative forcing are identified. Compared to the 8-bin approach, the 4-bin approach simulates similar but coarser size distributions of dust particles in the atmosphere, while the 3-mode approach retains more fine dust particles but fewer coarse dust particles due to its prescribed σg of each mode. Although the 3-mode approach yields up to 10 days of longer dust mass lifetime over the remote oceanic regions than the 8-bin approach, the three size approaches produce a similar dust mass lifetime (3.2 days to 3.5 days) on quasi-global average, reflecting that the global dust mass lifetime is mainly determined by the dust mass lifetime near the dust source regions. With the same global dust emission (∼4600 Tg yr-1), the 8-bin approach produces a dust mass loading of 39 Tg, while the 4-bin and 3-mode approaches produce 3% (40.2 Tg) and 25% (49.1 Tg) higher dust mass loading, respectively. The difference in dust mass loading between the 8-bin approach and the 4-bin or 3-mode approaches has large spatial variations, with generally smaller relative difference (<10%) near the surface over the dust source regions. The three size approaches also result in significantly different dry and wet deposition fluxes and number concentrations of dust. The difference in dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) (a factor of 3) among the three size approaches is much larger than their difference (25%) in dust mass loading. Compared to the 8-bin approach, the 4-bin approach yields stronger dust absorptivity, while the 3-mode approach yields weaker dust absorptivity. Overall, on quasi-global average, the three size parameterizations result in a significant difference of a factor of 2∼3 in dust surface cooling (-1.02∼-2.87 W m-2) and atmospheric warming (0.39∼0.96 W m-2) and in a tremendous difference of a factor of ∼10 in dust TOA (top of atmosphere) cooling (-0.24∼-2.20 W m-2). The impact of different size representations on dust radiative forcing efficiency is smaller. An uncertainty of a factor of 2 is quantified in dust emission estimation due to the different size parameterizations. This study also highlights the uncertainties in modeling dust mass and number loading, deposition fluxes, and radiative forcing resulting from different size parameterizations, and motivates further investigation of the impact of size parameterizations on modeling dust impacts on air quality, climate, and ecosystems

Uncertainty in modeling dust mass balance and radiative forcing from size parameterization

This study examines the uncertainties in simulating mass balance and radiative forcing of mineral dust due to biases in the dust size parameterization. Simulations are conducted quasi-globally (180° W-180° E and 60° S-70° N) using the WRF-Chem model with three different approaches to represent dust size distribution (8-bin, 4-bin, and 3-mode). The biases in the 3-mode or 4-bin approaches against a relatively more accurate 8-bin approach in simulating dust mass balance and radiative forcing are identified. Compared to the 8-bin approach, the 4-bin approach simulates similar but coarser size distributions of dust particles in the atmosphere, while the 3-mode approach retains more fine dust particles but fewer coarse dust particles due to its prescribed σg of each mode. Although the 3-mode approach yields up to 10 days of longer dust mass lifetime over the remote oceanic regions than the 8-bin approach, the three size approaches produce a similar dust mass lifetime (3.2 days to 3.5 days) on quasi-global average, reflecting that the global dust mass lifetime is mainly determined by the dust mass lifetime near the dust source regions. With the same global dust emission (∼4600 Tg yr-1), the 8-bin approach produces a dust mass loading of 39 Tg, while the 4-bin and 3-mode approaches produce 3% (40.2 Tg) and 25% (49.1 Tg) higher dust mass loading, respectively. The difference in dust mass loading between the 8-bin approach and the 4-bin or 3-mode approaches has large spatial variations, with generally smaller relative difference (<10%) near the surface over the dust source regions. The three size approaches also result in significantly different dry and wet deposition fluxes and number concentrations of dust. The difference in dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) (a factor of 3) among the three size approaches is much larger than their difference (25%) in dust mass loading. Compared to the 8-bin approach, the 4-bin approach yields stronger dust absorptivity, while the 3-mode approach yields weaker dust absorptivity. Overall, on quasi-global average, the three size parameterizations result in a significant difference of a factor of 2∼3 in dust surface cooling (-1.02∼-2.87 W m-2) and atmospheric warming (0.39∼0.96 W m-2) and in a tremendous difference of a factor of ∼10 in dust TOA (top of atmosphere) cooling (-0.24∼-2.20 W m-2). The impact of different size representations on dust radiative forcing efficiency is smaller. An uncertainty of a factor of 2 is quantified in dust emission estimation due to the different size parameterizations. This study also highlights the uncertainties in modeling dust mass and number loading, deposition fluxes, and radiative forcing resulting from different size parameterizations, and motivates further investigation of the impact of size parameterizations on modeling dust impacts on air quality, climate, and ecosystems