Logistic regression has similar performance to optimised machine learning algorithms in a clinical setting: application to the discrimination between type 1 and type 2 diabetes in young adults

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The data that support the findings of this study are available from University of Exeter Medical School/Oxford University but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly available. Data are however available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of University of Exeter Medical School/Oxford University. R code is made available in supplementary file (see Additional file 2).Background: There is much interest in the use of prognostic and diagnostic prediction models in all areas of clinical medicine. The use of machine learning to improve prognostic and diagnostic accuracy in this area has been increasing at the expense of classic statistical models. Previous studies have compared performance between these two approaches but their findings are inconsistent and many have limitations. We aimed to compare the discrimination and calibration of seven models built using logistic regression and optimised machine learning algorithms in a clinical setting, where the number of potential predictors is often limited, and externally validate the models. Methods: We trained models using logistic regression and six commonly used machine learning algorithms to predict if a patient diagnosed with diabetes has type 1 diabetes (versus type 2 diabetes). We used seven predictor variables (age, BMI, GADA islet-autoantibodies, sex, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride) using a UK cohort of adult participants (aged 18–50 years) with clinically diagnosed diabetes recruited from primary and secondary care (n = 960, 14% with type 1 diabetes). Discrimination performance (ROC AUC), calibration and decision curve analysis of each approach was compared in a separate external validation dataset (n = 504, 21% with type 1 diabetes). Results: Average performance obtained in internal validation was similar in all models (ROC AUC ≥ 0.94). In external validation, there were very modest reductions in discrimination with AUC ROC remaining ≥ 0.93 for all methods. Logistic regression had the numerically highest value in external validation (ROC AUC 0.95). Logistic regression had good performance in terms of calibration and decision curve analysis. Neural network and gradient boosting machine had the best calibration performance. Both logistic regression and support vector machine had good decision curve analysis for clinical useful threshold probabilities. Conclusion: Logistic regression performed as well as optimised machine algorithms to classify patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. This study highlights the utility of comparing traditional regression modelling to machine learning, particularly when using a small number of well understood, strong predictor variables.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Studies of insulin and proinsulin in pancreas and serum support the existence of aetiopathological endotypes of type 1 diabetes associated with age at diagnosis

Aims/hypothesis: It is unclear whether type 1 diabetes is a single disease or if endotypes exist. Our aim was to use a unique collection of pancreas samples recovered soon after disease onset to resolve this issue. Methods: Immunohistological analysis was used to determine the distribution of proinsulin and insulin in the islets of pancreas samples recovered soon after type 1 diabetes onset (<2 years) from young people diagnosed at age <7 years, 7-12 years and ≥13 years. The patterns were correlated with the insulitis profiles in the inflamed islets of the same groups of individuals. C-peptide levels and the proinsulin:C-peptide ratio were measured in the circulation of a cohort of living patients with longer duration of disease but who were diagnosed in these same age ranges. Results: Distinct patterns of proinsulin localisation were seen in the islets of people with recent-onset type 1 diabetes, which differed markedly between children diagnosed at <7 years and those diagnosed at ≥13 years. Proinsulin processing was aberrant in most residual insulin-containing islets of the younger group but this was much less evident in the group ≥13 years (p < 0.0001). Among all individuals (including children in the middle [7-12 years] range) aberrant proinsulin processing correlated with the assigned immune cell profiles defined by analysis of the lymphocyte composition of islet infiltrates. C-peptide levels were much lower in individuals diagnosed at <7 years than in those diagnosed at ≥13 years (median <3 pmol/l, IQR <3 to <3 vs 34.5 pmol/l, IQR <3-151; p < 0.0001), while the median proinsulin:C-peptide ratio was increased in those with age of onset <7 years compared with people diagnosed aged ≥13 years (0.18, IQR 0.10-0.31) vs 0.01, IQR 0.009-0.10 pmol/l; p < 0.0001). Conclusions/interpretation: Among those with type 1 diabetes diagnosed under the age of 30 years, there are histologically distinct endotypes that correlate with age at diagnosis. Recognition of such differences should inform the design of future immunotherapeutic interventions designed to arrest disease progression.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.We are grateful to Diabetes UK for financial support via project grant 16/0005480 (to NGM and SJR) and to JDRF for a Career Development Award to SJR (5-CDA-2014-221-A-N). The research was performed with the support of the Network for Pancreatic Organ Donors with Diabetes (nPOD), a collaborative type 1 diabetes research project sponsored by JDRF. Organ Procurement Organizations (OPO) partnering with nPOD to provide research resources are listed at http://www.jdrfnpod.org//for-partners/npod-partners/. ATH and BMS are supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. BMS is supported as part of the MRC MASTERMIND consortium. TJM is funded by an NIHR clinical senior lecturer fellowship. ATH is supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award (WT098395/Z/12/Z) and an NIHR Senior Investigator award. RAO is supported by a Diabetes UK Harry Keen Fellowship.published version, accepted version (12 month embargo

Stabilization of the coupled oxygen and phosphorus cycles by the evolution of bioturbation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record Animal burrowing and sediment-mixing (bioturbation) began during the run up to the Ediacaran/Cambrian boundary, initiating a transition between the stratified Precambrian and more well-mixed Phanerozoic sedimentary records, against the backdrop of a variable global oxygen reservoir probably smaller in size than present. Phosphorus is the long-term limiting nutrient for oxygen production via burial of organic carbon, and its retention (relative to carbon) within organic matter in marine sediments is enhanced by bioturbation. Here we explore the biogeochemical implications of a bioturbation-induced organic phosphorus sink in a simple model. We show that increased bioturbation robustly triggers a net decrease in the size of the global oxygen reservoir - the magnitude of which is contingent upon the prescribed difference in carbon to phosphorus ratios between bioturbated and laminated sediments. Bioturbation also reduces steady-state marine phosphate levels, but this effect is offset by the decline in iron-adsorbed phosphate burial that results from a decrease in oxygen concentrations. The introduction of oxygen-sensitive bioturbation to dynamical model runs is sufficient to trigger a negative feedback loop: the intensity of bioturbation is limited by the oxygen decrease it initially causes. The onset of this feedback is consistent with redox variations observed during the early Cambrian rise of bioturbation, leading us to suggest that bioturbation helped to regulate early oxygen and phosphorus cycles. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Inge Lehmann ScholarshipVILLUM FoundationNational Basic Research Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG

Lateral rectus metastasis from an occult systemic malignancy masquerading as abducens palsy: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Abduction deficit in the elderly is commonly caused by sixth cranial nerve palsy due to microvasculopathy. However, not all such cases are of neurogenic origin, as our case report shows.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We present the case of a 75-year-old woman who was generally unwell, developed acute diplopia and was found to have a right abduction deficit in a quiet eye with no gross orbital signs and symptoms. A computed tomography scan of the head and orbits revealed a metastatic mass in the right lateral rectus muscle. Systemic evaluation confirmed widespread thoracic and abdominal metastases from an occult systemic malignancy. Lateral rectus metastasis from an occult systemic malignancy was masquerading as abducens palsy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Orbital metastasis involving extraocular muscles can present as isolated diplopia with minimal local signs and the absence of a history of systemic malignancy. A detailed history and systemic examination can identify suspicious cases, which should be investigated further. The clinician should avoid presuming that such an abduction deficit in the elderly is a benign neurogenic palsy.</p

Abdominal functional electrical stimulation to improve respiratory function after spinal cord injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: Abdominal functional electrical stimulation (abdominal FES) is the application of a train of electrical pulses to the abdominal muscles, causing them to contract. Abdominal FES has been used as a neuroprosthesis to acutely augment respiratory function and as a rehabilitation tool to achieve a chronic increase in respiratory function after abdominal FES training, primarily focusing on patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). This study aimed to review the evidence surrounding the use of abdominal FES to improve respiratory function in both an acute and chronic manner after SCI. Settings: A systematic search was performed on PubMed, with studies included if they applied abdominal FES to improve respiratory function in patients with SCI. Methods: Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria (10 acute and 4 chronic). Low participant numbers and heterogeneity across studies reduced the power of the meta-analysis. Despite this, abdominal FES was found to cause a significant acute improvement in cough peak flow, whereas forced exhaled volume in 1 s approached significance. A significant chronic increase in unassisted vital capacity, forced vital capacity and peak expiratory flow was found after abdominal FES training compared with baseline. Conclusions: This systematic review suggests that abdominal FES is an effective technique for improving respiratory function in both an acute and chronic manner after SCI. However, further randomised controlled trials, with larger participant numbers and standardised protocols, are needed to fully establish the clinical efficacy of this technique

Orbital swelling as a first symptom in breast carcinoma diagnosis: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The frequency of intra-orbital metastasis in systemic cancer is a controversial topic. Of all metastatic tumors to the orbit of the eye, breast carcinoma is considered to be the most prevalent. Orbital findings typically present themselves after the diagnosis of the primary tumor, with an average delay of three to six years. In spite of that, this study reports a case in which orbital manifestation was the initial symptom in breast carcinoma diagnosis.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 66-year-old Italian Caucasian woman presented with a swelling located on the lower orbit of her right eye.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Previous cases report orbital manifestations discovered secondary to breast cancer. This case demonstrates that orbital symptoms may be the primary presentation of the disease. Orbital metastasis originating from breast cancer predicts widespread metastatic disease in other organs. In the presence of an ambiguous infiltrative orbital process, diagnostic examination of the breast is recommended.</p

Age of diagnosis does not alter the presentation or progression of robustly defined adult onset type 1 diabetes

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Diabetes Association via the DOI in this record OBJECTIVE: To determine whether presentation, progression, and genetic susceptibility of robustly defined adult-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) are altered by diagnosis age. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared the relationship between diagnosis age and presentation, C-peptide loss (annual change in urine C-peptide-creatinine ratio [UCPCR]), and genetic susceptibility (T1D genetic risk score [GRS]) in adults with confirmed T1D in the prospective StartRight study, 1,798 adults with new-onset diabetes. T1D was defined in two ways: two or more positive islet autoantibodies (of GAD antibody, IA-2 antigen, and ZnT8 autoantibody) irrespective of clinical diagnosis (n = 385) or one positive islet autoantibody and a clinical diagnosis of T1D (n = 180). RESULTS: In continuous analysis, age of diagnosis was not associated with C-peptide loss for either definition of T1D (P > 0.1), with mean (95% CI) annual C-peptide loss in those diagnosed before and after 35 years of age (median age of T1D defined by two or more positive autoantibodies): 39 (31-46) vs. 44% (38-50) with two or more positive islet autoantibodies and 43 (33-51) vs. 39% (31-46) with clinician diagnosis confirmed by one positive islet autoantibody (P > 0.1). Baseline C-peptide and T1D GRS were unaffected by age of diagnosis or T1D definition (P > 0.1). In T1D defined by two or more autoantibodies, presentation severity was similar in those diagnosed before and after 35 years of age: unintentional weight loss, 80 (95% CI 74-85) vs. 82% (76-87); ketoacidosis, 24 (18-30) vs. 19% (14-25); and presentation glucose, 21 (19-22) vs. 21 mmol/L (20-22) (all P ≥ 0.1). Despite similar presentation, older adults were less likely to be diagnosed with T1D, insulin-treated, or admitted to hospital. CONCLUSIONS: When adult-onset T1D is robustly defined, the presentation characteristics, progression, and T1D genetic susceptibility are not altered by age of diagnosis.Diabetes UKNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR)European Foundation for the Study of Diabete

Radio Emission from Ultra-Cool Dwarfs

The 2001 discovery of radio emission from ultra-cool dwarfs (UCDs), the very low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with spectral types of ~M7 and later, revealed that these objects can generate and dissipate powerful magnetic fields. Radio observations provide unparalleled insight into UCD magnetism: detections extend to brown dwarfs with temperatures <1000 K, where no other observational probes are effective. The data reveal that UCDs can generate strong (kG) fields, sometimes with a stable dipolar structure; that they can produce and retain nonthermal plasmas with electron acceleration extending to MeV energies; and that they can drive auroral current systems resulting in significant atmospheric energy deposition and powerful, coherent radio bursts. Still to be understood are the underlying dynamo processes, the precise means by which particles are accelerated around these objects, the observed diversity of magnetic phenomenologies, and how all of these factors change as the mass of the central object approaches that of Jupiter. The answers to these questions are doubly important because UCDs are both potential exoplanet hosts, as in the TRAPPIST-1 system, and analogues of extrasolar giant planets themselves.Comment: 19 pages; submitted chapter to the Handbook of Exoplanets, eds. Hans J. Deeg and Juan Antonio Belmonte (Springer-Verlag