Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade, models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books (arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure

Nonperturbative and perturbative aspects of photo- and electroproduction of vector mesons

We discuss various aspects of vector meson production, first analysing the interplay between perturbative and nonperturbative aspects of the QCD calculation. Using a general method adapted to incorporate both perturbative and nonpertubative aspects, we show that nonperturbative effects are important for all experimentally available values of the photon virtuality Q2. We compare the huge amount of experimental information now available with our theoretical results obtained using a specific nonperturbative model without free parameters, showing that quite simple features are able to explain the data.Comment: 19 page

Color Transparency versus Quantum Coherence in Electroproduction of Vector Mesons off Nuclei

So far no theoretical tool for the comprehensive description of exclusive electroproduction of vector mesons off nuclei at medium energies has been developed. We suggest a light-cone QCD formalism which is valid at any energy and incorporates formation effects (color transparency), the coherence length and the gluon shadowing. At medium energies color transparency (CT) and the onset of coherence length (CL) effects are not easily separated. Indeed, although nuclear transparency measured by the HERMES experiment rises with Q^2, it agrees with predictions of the vector dominance model (VDM) without any CT effects. Our new results and observations are: (i) the good agreement with the VDM found earlier is accidental and related to the specific correlation between Q^2 and CL for HERMES kinematics; (ii) CT effects are much larger than have been estimated earlier within the two channel approximation. They are even stronger at low than at high energies and can be easily identified by HERMES or at JLab; (iii) gluon shadowing which is important at high energies is calculated and included; (iv) our parameter-free calculations explain well available data for variation of nuclear transparency with virtuality and energy of the photon; (v) predictions for electroproduction of \rho and \phi are provided for future measurements at HERMES and JLab.Comment: Latex 57 pages and 17 figure

Customer emotions in service failure and recovery encounters

Emotions play a significant role in the workplace, and considerable attention has been given to the study of employee emotions. Customers also play a central function in organizations, but much less is known about customer emotions. This chapter reviews the growing literature on customer emotions in employee–customer interfaces with a focus on service failure and recovery encounters, where emotions are heightened. It highlights emerging themes and key findings, addresses the measurement, modeling, and management of customer emotions, and identifies future research streams. Attention is given to emotional contagion, relationships between affective and cognitive processes, customer anger, customer rage, and individual differences

Development of an international Core Outcome Set (COS) for best care for the dying person: study protocol

Background: In contrast to typical measures employed to assess outcomes in healthcare such as mortality or recovery rates, it is difficult to define which specific outcomes of care are the most important in caring for dying individuals. Despite a variety of tools employed to assess different dimensions of palliative care, there is no consensus on a set of core outcomes to be measured in the last days of life. In order to optimise decision making in clinical practice and comparability of interventional studies, we aim to identify and propose a set of core outcomes for the care of the dying person. Methods: Following the COMET initiative approach, the proposed study will proceed through four stages to develop a set of core outcomes: In stage 1, a systematic review of the literature will identify outcomes measured in existing peer reviewed literature, as well as outcomes derived through qualitative studies. Grey literature, will also be included. Stage 2 will allow for the identification and determination of patient and proxy defined outcomes of care at the end of life via quantitative and qualitative methods at an international level. In stage 3, from a list of salient outcomes identified through stages 1 and 2, international experts, family members, patients, and patient advocates will be asked to score the importance of the preselected outcomes through a Delphi process. Stage 4 consists of a face-to-face consensus meeting of in

Examining Interindividual Differences in Cyclicity of Pleasant and Unpleasant Affects Using Spectral Analysis and Item Response Modeling

non-linear, multilevel, longitudinal, missing data, emotion,

High Energy Photon-Nucleon and Photon-Nucleus Cross Sections

We re\,examine the theory of hadronic photon-nucleon interactions at the quark-gluon level. The possibility of multiple parton collisions in a single photon-nucleon collision requires an eikonal treatment of the high-energy scattering process. We give a general formulation of the theory in which the $\gamma p$ cross section is expressed as a sum over properly eikonalized cross sections for the interaction of the virtual hadronic components of the photon with the proton, with each cross section weighted by the probability with which that component appears in the photon, and then develop a detailed model which includes contributions from light vector mesons and from excited virtual states described in a quark-gluon basis. The parton distribution functions which appear can be related approximately to those in the pion, while a weighted sum gives the distribution functions for the photon. We use the model to make improved QCD-based predictions for the total inelastic photon-nucleon and photon-nucleus cross sections at energies relevant for HERA experiments and cosmic ray observations. We emphasize the importance in this procedure of including a soft-scattering background such that the calculated cross sections join smoothly with low-energy data.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figs. available on request from honjo@wishep. bitnet, MAD/TH/91-57, submitted to Phys. Rev.

EXCLUSIVE rho0 AND phi PRODUCTION IN DEEP INELASTIC MUON SCATTERING

Ashman J, Badelek B, Baum G, et al. Exclusive Rho 0 and Phi production in deep inelastic muon scattering. Z.Phys. C. 1988;39(2):169-175