Regionalisation of climate impacts on flood flows to support the development of climate change guidance for Flood Management

Current Defra / Environment Agency guidance (FCDPAG3 supplementary note: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/pubs/pagn/climatechangeupdate.pdf) requires all flood management plans to allow for climate change by incorporating, within a sensitivity analysis, an increase in river flows of up 20% over the next 50 years, and beyond. This guidance is the same for all of England and Wales, making no allowance for regional variation in climate change or catchment type. This reflects the lack of scientific evidence to resolve the spatial distribution of potential impacts on flood flows with enough confidence to set such policy regionally. The 20% allowance was first raised in 1999 for MAFF and subsequently reviewed following the release of the UKCIP02 scenarios. Although the 20% figure is a memorable precautionary target, there is the risk that it leads to a significant under- or over-estimation of future flood risk in individual catchments. Defra and the Environment Agency procured project FD2020 (Regionalisation of climate change impacts on flood flows) to provide a more rigorous science base for refreshing the FCDPAG3: supplementary note guidance. The FD2020 approach is exploring the relationships between catchment characteristics and climate change impacts on peak flows in a “scenario neutral” way. This is done by defining a regular set of changes in climate that encompass all the current knowledge from the new scenarios available from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. For each of the 155 catchments included in the research, this broad approach will provide multiple scenarios to produce a “vulnerability surface” for change in the metrics of peak flows (e.g. the 20-year flood flow). Some of the UKCP09 products have also been used to understand what these projections may mean for changes to peak flow. The catchment-based analysis will be used to generalise to other gauged sites across Britain, using relationships with catchment characteristics, providing the scientific evidence for the development of regional guidance on climate change allowances. Specifically the project is: Investigating the impact of climate change on peak river flows in over 150 catchments across Britain to assess the suitability of the FCDPAG3 20% climate change allowance. Investigating catchment response to climate change to identify potential similarities such that the FCDPAG3 nationwide allowance could be regionalised. Investigating the uncertainty in changes to future peak river flows from climate change. Developing an approach that has longevity beyond the project timeframe and the lifetime of the latest generation of climate model results

Association of Sex with Neurobehavioral Markers of Executive Function in 2-Year-Olds at High and Low Likelihood of Autism

Importance: Children with autism and their siblings exhibit executive function (EF) deficits early in development, but associations between EF and biological sex or early brain alterations in this population are largely unexplored. Objective: To investigate the interaction of sex, autism likelihood group, and structural magnetic resonance imaging alterations on EF in 2-year-old children at high familial likelihood (HL) and low familial likelihood (LL) of autism, based on having an older sibling with autism or no family history of autism in first-degree relatives. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study assessed 165 toddlers at HL (n = 110) and LL (n = 55) of autism at 4 university-based research centers. Data were collected from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2013, and analyzed between August 2021 and June 2022 as part of the Infant Brain Imaging Study. Main Outcomes and Measures: Direct assessments of EF and acquired structural magnetic resonance imaging were performed to determine frontal lobe, parietal lobe, and total cerebral brain volume. Results: A total of 165 toddlers (mean [SD] age, 24.61 [0.95] months; 90 [54%] male, 137 [83%] White) at HL for autism (n = 110; 17 diagnosed with ASD) and LL for autism (n = 55) were studied. The toddlers at HL for autism scored lower than the toddlers at LL for autism on EF tests regardless of sex (mean [SE] B = -8.77 [4.21]; 95% CI, -17.09 to -0.45; η2p= 0.03). With the exclusion of toddlers with autism, no group (HL vs LL) difference in EF was found in boys (mean [SE] difference, -7.18 [4.26]; 95% CI, 1.24-15.59), but EF was lower in HL girls than LL girls (mean [SE] difference, -9.75 [4.34]; 95% CI, -18.32 to -1.18). Brain-behavior associations were examined, controlling for overall cerebral volume and developmental level. Sex differences in EF-frontal (B [SE] = 16.51 [7.43]; 95% CI, 1.36-31.67; η2p= 0.14) and EF-parietal (B [SE] = 17.68 [6.99]; 95% CI, 3.43-31.94; η2p= 0.17) associations were found in the LL group but not the HL group (EF-frontal: B [SE] = -1.36 [3.87]; 95% CI, -9.07 to 6.35; η2p= 0.00; EF-parietal: B [SE] = -2.81 [4.09]; 95% CI, -10.96 to 5.34; η2p= 0.01). Autism likelihood group differences in EF-frontal (B [SE] = -9.93 [4.88]; 95% CI, -19.73 to -0.12; η2p= 0.08) and EF-parietal (B [SE] = -15.44 [5.18]; 95% CI, -25.86 to -5.02; η2p= 0.16) associations were found in girls not boys (EF-frontal: B [SE] = 6.51 [5.88]; 95% CI, -5.26 to 18.27; η2p= 0.02; EF-parietal: B [SE] = 4.18 [5.48]; 95% CI, -6.78 to 15.15; η2p= 0.01). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of toddlers at HL and LL of autism suggests that there is an association between sex and EF and that brain-behavior associations in EF may be altered in children at HL of autism. Furthermore, EF deficits may aggregate in families, particularly in girls

Customer emotions in service failure and recovery encounters

Emotions play a significant role in the workplace, and considerable attention has been given to the study of employee emotions. Customers also play a central function in organizations, but much less is known about customer emotions. This chapter reviews the growing literature on customer emotions in employee–customer interfaces with a focus on service failure and recovery encounters, where emotions are heightened. It highlights emerging themes and key findings, addresses the measurement, modeling, and management of customer emotions, and identifies future research streams. Attention is given to emotional contagion, relationships between affective and cognitive processes, customer anger, customer rage, and individual differences

Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study

A41 Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study In: Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 2017, 12(Suppl 1): A4

Search for Tensor, Vector, and Scalar Polarizations in the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

The detection of gravitational waves with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo has enabled novel tests of general relativity, including direct study of the polarization of gravitational waves. While general relativity allows for only two tensor gravitational-wave polarizations, general metric theories can additionally predict two vector and two scalar polarizations. The polarization of gravitational waves is encoded in the spectral shape of the stochastic gravitational-wave background, formed by the superposition of cosmological and individually unresolved astrophysical sources. Using data recorded by Advanced LIGO during its first observing run, we search for a stochastic background of generically polarized gravitational waves. We find no evidence for a background of any polarization, and place the first direct bounds on the contributions of vector and scalar polarizations to the stochastic background. Under log-uniform priors for the energy in each polarization, we limit the energy densities of tensor, vector, and scalar modes at 95% credibility to Ω0T<5.58×10-8, Ω0V<6.35×10-8, and Ω0S<1.08×10-7 at a reference frequency f0=25 Hz. © 2018 American Physical Society

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10-5 and 9.4×10-4 Mpc-3 yr-1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves. © 2016 American Physical Society

Erratum: "A Gravitational-wave Measurement of the Hubble Constant Following the Second Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo" (2021, ApJ, 909, 218)

[no abstract available

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10-5 and 9.4×10-4 Mpc-3 yr-1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves. © 2016 American Physical Society

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society