Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval

Energetic particle influence on the Earth's atmosphere

This manuscript gives an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) onto the whole atmosphere, from the lower thermosphere/mesosphere through the stratosphere and troposphere, to the surface. The paper summarizes the different sources and energies of particles, principally galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and energetic electron precipitation (EEP). All the proposed mechanisms by which EPP can affect the atmosphere are discussed, including chemical changes in the upper atmosphere and lower thermosphere, chemistry-dynamics feedbacks, the global electric circuit and cloud formation. The role of energetic particles in Earth’s atmosphere is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires expertise from a range of scientific backgrounds. To assist with this synergy, summary tables are provided, which are intended to evaluate the level of current knowledge of the effects of energetic particles on processes in the entire atmosphere

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.Peer reviewe

Modelling F2-layer seasonal trends and day-to-day variability driven by coupling with the lower atmosphere

This paper presents results from the TIME-GCM-CCM3 thermosphere–ionosphere–lower atmosphere flux-coupled model, and investigates how well the model simulates known F2-layer day/night and seasonal behaviour and patterns of day-to-day variability at seven ionosonde stations. Of the many possible contributors to F2-layer variability, the present work includes only the influence of ‘meteorological’ disturbances transmitted from lower levels in the atmosphere, solar and geomagnetic conditions being held at constant levels throughout a model year.In comparison to ionosonde data, TIME-GCM-CCM3 models the peak electron density (NmF2) quite well, except for overemphasizing the daytime summer/winter anomaly in both hemispheres and seriously underestimating night NmF2 in summer. The peak height hmF2 is satisfactorily modelled by day, except that the model does not reproduce its observed semiannual variation. Nighttime values of hmF2 are much too low, thus causing low model values of night NmF2. Comparison of the variations of NmF2 and the neutral [O/N2] ratio supports the idea that both annual and semiannual variations of F2-layer electron density are largely caused by changes of neutral composition, which in turn are driven by the global thermospheric circulation.Finally, the paper describes and discusses the characteristics of the F2-layer response to the imposed ‘meteorological’ disturbances. The ionospheric response is evaluated as the standard deviations of five ionospheric parameters for each station within 11-day blocks of data. At any one station, the patterns of variability show some coherence between different parameters, such as peak electron density and the neutral atomic/molecular ratio. Coherence between stations is found only between the closest pairs, some 2500 km apart, which is presumably related to the scale size of the ‘meteorological’ disturbances. The F2-layer day-to-day variability appears to be related more to variations in winds than to variations of thermospheric composition

Day-by-day modelling of the ionospheric F2-layer for year 2002

The thermosphere–ionosphere–mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) has been run for the year 2002. Its version 1.2 features include day-by-day input of solar irradiance, geomagnetic energy input parameterized by the 3-h Kp index, and global lower boundary conditions from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. In addition, it includes tidal forcing from the global-scale wave model (GSWM) and parameterized gravity waves from below. The computed day-by-day values of noon peak electron density NmF2 agree well with ionosonde data for five northern sites and two southern mid-latitude sites, and closely follow the day-by-day modelled concentration ratio of atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen. Seasonal and hemispheric patterns appear in the model with some, though not full, success. The model's day-to-day patterns show an impressive degree of variability, with simulations of total variability both above and below those observed.<br/

Springtime transitions in mesopause airglow and dynamics: photometer and MF radar observations in the Scandinavian and Canadian sectors

Observations from 2 optical ground stations and 3 MF radars at high and mid-latitudes have been combined to describe "springtime transitions" in atomic oxygen and the mesopause wind fields and waves for eight years (1991-1998). The typical signature in the Stockholm (60degreesN, 20degreesE) OI 558 nm 'green-line' emission involves a rapid (circa) 2-days rise in the nighttime value by factors of 2 or so, with a subsequent decrease by factors of 3-10. There is considerable inter-annual variability in these green-line emissions, and also the hydroxyl airglow (intensities and temperatures) at Bear Lake Observatory (Utah, 42degreesN, 115degreesW), but the 6-8 year means do show a characteristic airglow "springtime transition" (AST) near the end of March. MF radars from Tromso (70degreesN, 19degreesE), Juliusruh (55 N, 13 E) and Saskatoon (52degreesN, 107degreesW) demonstrate springtime reversals in the mean (daily) zonal winds at 85-95 km, both annually and in B year means, at times near the airglow "transitions". The "tongue" of easterlies (near March 30) is a long-established feature of mesopause dynamics, and clear indications of associated changes in tides and gravity wave fluxes are also presented. The TIME-GCM is also used to investigate the characteristics of the airglow and winds during the interval associated with the AST events. Useful similarities with the observed variations are demonstrated