Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore, the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i) the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP) decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index, air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii) the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RPfuzzy model, that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity, and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed, and three possible settings (optimistic, medium and pessimistic) were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land, the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic) to 160% (pessimistic). Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$2.88 kg-1, while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg-1, challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment.O aquecimento global afeta o agronegócio em seus aspectos econômicos. Foi feita previsão daevolução do custo de produção de carne bovina brasileira usando a predição de aquecimento global do IPCC. A metodologia consistiu de duas etapas: (i) o desenvolvimento de modelo fuzzy que estimou o risco de decréscimo da capacidade de pastagens (RP) em função das mudanças no índice pluviométrico total, na temperatura do ar e na extensão da estação de seca; e (ii) o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo para predição do decréscimo da produção em função de um modelo fuzzy de RP que resulte no impacto na produtividade bovina de corte e conseqüente aumento no custo de produção. Foram organizados os dados históricos de fatores ambientais dos municípios importante produção no Cerrado e um conjunto de funções Gaussianas fuzzy foi desenvolvido e três estimativas possíveis (otimista, média e negativa) foram consideradas. O decréscimo na produtividade do gado foi estimado usando as perdas de produção devido ao acréscimo da temperatura bem como da vulnerabilidade da capacidade de pastagem. O estabelecimento dos limites para o cenário do acréscimo do custo de produção usou o número de unidade animal por área de pastagem, a adoção de suplemento de grãos e o cenário de produção futura; e o resultado da função de saída apontou para uma variação do acréscimo do custo de produção de 80% (otimista) até 160% (pessimista). Sob o cenário otimista, o custo total da produção brasileira de carne bovina no Cerrado chega a US$2,88 kg-1, enquanto no cenário pessimista este custo pode atingir US$ 4,16 kg-1, o que pode comprometer a competitividade internacional do setor

The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation

A major reduction in global deforestation is needed to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss. Recent private sector commitments aim to eliminate deforestation from a company’s operations or supply chain, but they fall short on several fronts. Company pledges vary in the degree to which they include timebound interventions with clear definitions and criteria to achieve verifiable outcomes. Zero-deforestation policies by companies may be insufficient on their own to achieve broader impact due to leakage, lack of transparency and traceability, selective adoption, and smallholder marginalization. Public-private policy mixes are needed to increase the effectiveness of supply-chain initiatives aimed at reducing deforestation. We review current supply-chain initiatives, their effectiveness, the challenges they face, and identify knowledge gaps for complementary public-private policies

Identification of novel non-autonomous CemaT transposable elements and evidence of their mobility within the C. elegans genome

We describe here two new transposable elements, CemaT4 and CemaT5, that were identified within the sequenced genome of Caenorhabditis elegans using homology based searches. Five variants of CemaT4 were found, all non-autonomous and sharing 26 bp inverted terminal repeats (ITRs) and segments (152-367 bp) of sequence with similarity to the CemaT1 transposon of C. elegans. Sixteen copies of a short, 30 bp repetitive sequence, comprised entirely of an inverted repeat of the first 15 bp of CemaT4's ITR, were also found, each flanked by TA dinucleotide duplications, which are hallmarks of target site duplications of mariner-Tc transposon transpositions. The CemaT5 transposable element had no similarity to maT elements, except for sharing identical ITR sequences with CemaT3. We provide evidence that CemaT5 and CemaT3 are capable of excising from the C. elegans genome, despite neither transposon being capable of encoding a functional transposase enzyme. Presumably, these two transposons are cross-mobilised by an autonomous transposon that recognises their shared ITRs. The excisions of these and other non-autonomous elements may provide opportunities for abortive gap repair to create internal deletions and/or insert novel sequence within these transposons. The influence of non-autonomous element mobility and structural diversity on genome variation is discussed