Regional scale cropland carbon budgets: Evaluating a geospatial agricultural modeling system using inventory data

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems to each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000e2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input data and by designing more efficient parallel computing capability to quantitatively assess errors associated with the simulation of C budget components. The modularized design of the GAMS makes it flexible to be updated and adapted for different agricultural models so long as they require similar input data, and to be linked with socio-economic models to understand the effectiveness and implications of diverse C management practices and policies

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this recordCode availability; The source code used to produce the core LUH2 datasets and the LUH2-GCB datasets, along with the sources and citations of necessary inputs, are archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3954113 (Chini et al., 2020a).Data availability: The data produced in this study are archived and publicly available at the NASA Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center: https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851 (Chini et al, 2020b).Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-The-Art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100g000gkm2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77g000gkm2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.NASAUS Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental ResearchEuropean Union Horizon 202

Isolating type-specific phenologies through spectral unmixing of satellite time series

Vegetation phenology is commonly studied using time series of multi-spectral vegetation indices derived from satellite imagery. Differences in reflectance among land-cover and/or plant functional types are obscured by sub-pixel mixing, and so phenological analyses have typically sought to maximize the compositional purity of input satellite data by increasing spatial resolution. We present an alternative method to mitigate this ‘mixed-pixel problem’ and extract the phenological behavior of individual land-cover types inferentially, by inverting the linear mixture model traditionally used for sub-pixel land-cover mapping. Parameterized using genetic algorithms, the method takes advantage of the discriminating capacity of calibrated surface reflectance measurements in red, near infrared, and short-wave infrared wavelengths, as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Water Index. In simulation, the unmixing procedure reproduced the reflectances and phenological signals of grass, crop, and deciduous forests with high fidelity (RMSE < 0.007 NDVI); and in empirical tests, the algorithm extracted the phenological characteristics of evergreen trees and seasonal grasses in a semi-arid savannah. The approach shows potential for a wide range of ecological applications, including detection of differential responses to climate, soil, or other factors among vegetation types

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies

Many de novo donor-specific antibodies recognize β2 -microglobulin-free, but not intact HLA heterodimers

Solid-phase single antigen bead (SAB) assays are standard of care for detection and identification of donor-specific antibody (DSA) in patients who receive solid organ transplantation (SOT). While several studies have documented the reproducibility and sensitivity of SAB testing for DSA, there are little data available concerning its specificity. This study describes the identification of antibodies to β2 -microglobulin-free human leukocyte antigen (β2 -m-fHLA) heavy chains on SAB arrays and provides a reassessment of the clinical relevance of DSA testing by this platform. Post-transplant sera from 55 patients who were positive for de novo donor-specific antibodies on a SAB solid-phase immunoassay were tested under denaturing conditions in order to identify antibodies reactive with β2 -m-fHLA or native HLA (nHLA). Antibodies to β2 -m-fHLA were present in nearly half of patients being monitored in the post-transplant period. The frequency of antibodies to β2 -m-fHLA was similar among DSA and HLA antigens that were irrelevant to the transplant (non-DSA). Among the seven patients with clinical or pathologic antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), none had antibodies to β2 -m-fHLA exclusively; thus, the clinical relevance of β2 -m-fHLA is unclear. Our data suggests that SAB testing produces false positive reactions due to the presence of β2 -m-fHLA and these can lead to inappropriate assignment of unacceptable antigens during transplant listing and possibly inaccurate identification of DSA in the post-transplant period