Predicting the distribution of canine leishmaniasis in western Europe based on environmental variables.

The domestic dog is the reservoir host of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis endemic in Mediterranean Europe. Targeted control requires predictive risk maps of canine leishmaniasis (CanL), which are now explored. We databased 2187 published and unpublished surveys of CanL in southern Europe. A total of 947 western surveys met inclusion criteria for analysis, including serological identification of infection (504, 369 dogs tested 1971-2006). Seroprevalence was 23 2% overall (median 10%). Logistic regression models within a GIS framework identified the main environmental predictors of CanL seroprevalence in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, or in France alone. A 10-fold cross-validation approach determined model capacity to predict point-values of seroprevalence and the correct seroprevalence class (20%). Both the four-country and France-only models performed reasonably well for predicting correctly the 20% seroprevalence classes (AUC >0 70). However, the France-only model performed much better for France than the four-country model. The four-country model adequately predicted regions of CanL emergence in northern Italy (<5% seroprevalence). Both models poorly predicted intermediate point seroprevalences (5-20%) within regional foci, because surveys were biased towards known rural foci and Mediterranean bioclimates. Our recommendations for standardizing surveys would permit higher-resolution risk mapping

Development and exploratory cluster-randomised opportunistic trial of a theory-based intervention to enhance physical activity among adolescents

Peer reviewedPostprin

National business regulations and city entrepreneurship in Europe: a multilevel nested analysis

This article provides and tests a theoretical framework with a multilevel (country–city) nested model to analyze the relationship between national business regulations (NBRs) and city level entrepreneurship. While public interest theory predicts a positive relationship between NBR and city level entrepreneurship, public choice theory predicts the opposite, a negative relationship. Based on multilevel analysis for a matched country–city panel of 228 cities across 20 European countries for the years 2004 to 2009, the empirical evidence from panel data estimation explains how changes in NBRs influence changes in city level entrepreneurial activity over time

A latent variable modelling approach for the pooled analysis of individual participant data on the association between depression and chlamydia infection in adolescence and young adulthood in the UK

Despite the increasing evidence of association between chlamydia infection and depression, currently there is a paucity of research with limited scope to understand better the temporal nature of the relationship between them. We consider this problem in adolescence and young adulthood by pooled analysis of 7250 participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. We propose a latent variable modelling approach which can handle harmonization of categorical variables including ordinal measures from the two studies as well as measurement error and time trends

Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

Negative cognition, affect, metacognition and dimensions of paranoia in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis: a multi-level modelling analysis

Background: Paranoia is one of the commonest symptoms of psychosis but has rarely been studied in a population at risk of developing psychosis. Based on existing theoretical models, including the proposed distinction between ‘poor me’ and ‘bad me’ paranoia, we aimed to test specific predictions about associations between negative cognition, metacognitive beliefs and negative emotions and paranoid ideation and the belief that persecution is deserved (deservedness). Method: We used data from 117 participants from the Early Detection and Intervention Evaluation for people at risk of psychosis (EDIE-2) trial of cognitive–behaviour therapy, comparing them with samples of psychiatric in-patients and healthy students from a previous study. Multi-level modelling was utilized to examine predictors of both paranoia and deservedness, with post-hoc planned comparisons conducted to test whether person-level predictor variables were associated differentially with paranoia or with deservedness. Results: Our sample of at-risk mental state participants was not as paranoid, but reported higher levels of ‘bad-me’ deservedness, compared with psychiatric in-patients. We found several predictors of paranoia and deservedness. Negative beliefs about self were related to deservedness but not paranoia, whereas negative beliefs about others were positively related to paranoia but negatively with deservedness. Both depression and negative metacognitive beliefs about paranoid thinking were specifically related to paranoia but not deservedness. Conclusions: This study provides evidence for the role of negative cognition, metacognition and negative affect in the development of paranoid beliefs, which has implications for psychological interventions and our understanding of psychosis

Measures of clustering and heterogeneity in multilevel Poisson regression analyses of rates/count data

Multilevel data occur frequently in many research areas like health services research and epidemiology. A suitable way to analyze such data is through the use of multilevel regression models. These models incorporate cluster-specific random effects that allow one to partition the total variation in the outcome into between-cluster variation and between-individual variation. The magnitude of the effect of clustering provides a measure of the general contextual effect. When outcomes are binary or time-to-event in nature, the general contextual effect can be quantified by measures of heterogeneity like the median odds ratio or the median hazard ratio, respectively, which can be calculated from a multilevel regression model. Outcomes that are integer counts denoting the number of times that an event occurred are common in epidemiological and medical research. The median (incidence) rate ratio in multilevel Poisson regression for counts that corresponds to the median odds ratio or median hazard ratio for binary or time-to-event outcomes respectively is relatively unknown and is rarely used. The median rate ratio is the median relative change in the rate of the occurrence of the event when comparing identical subjects from 2 randomly selected different clusters that are ordered by rate. We also describe how the variance partition coefficient, which denotes the proportion of the variation in the outcome that is attributable to between-cluster differences, can be computed with count outcomes. We illustrate the application and interpretation of these measures in a case study analyzing the rate of hospital readmission in patients discharged from hospital with a diagnosis of heart failure

Response rates in postal surveys of healthcare professionals between 1996 and 2005: An observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Postal surveys are a frequently used method of data collection in health services research. Low response rates increase the potential for bias and threaten study validity. The objectives of this study were to estimate current response rates, to assess whether response rates are falling, to explore factors that might enhance response rates and to examine the potential for non-response bias in surveys mailed to healthcare professionals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A random sample of postal or electronic surveys of healthcare workers (1996-2005) was identified from Medline, Embase or Psycinfo databases or Biomed Central. Outcome measures were survey response rate and non response analysis. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression examined the relationship between response rate and publication type, healthcare profession, country and number of survey participants, questionnaire length and use of reminders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis included 350 studies. Average response rate in doctors was 57.5% (95%CI: 55.2% to 59.8%) and significantly lower than the estimate for the prior 10 year period. Response rates were higher when reminders were sent (adjusted OR 1.3; 95%CI 1.1-1.6) but only half the studies did this. Response rates were also higher in studies with fewer than 1000 participants and in countries other than US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. They were not significantly affected by publication type or healthcare profession (p > 0.05). Only 17% of studies attempted assessment of possible non-response bias.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Response rates to postal surveys of healthcare professionals are low and probably declining, almost certainly leading to unknown levels of bias. To improve the informativeness of postal survey findings, researchers should routinely consider the use of reminders and assess potential for non-response bias.</p

Health care help seeking behaviour among prisoners in Norway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prisoners are associated with high health care needs compared with the general population. This study aims to investigate prisoners' use of health service.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study of 29 prisons in central and southern parts of Norway. A questionnaire was distributed to 1, 454 prisoners (90% response rate). Multilevel analyses were employed to analyse help seeking behaviour among the prisoners.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Help seeking was substantially associated with sleep problems and drug problems. There was also a tendency for closed prisons as well as high staffing levels of healthcare professionals to be associated with elevated health care use.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study suggests that sleep problems and drug use are most frequently associated with health service use. The differences in health care use between prisons suggest that the implementation of prison health care standards should be addressed.</p