Simulation of population’s reproductive behaviour patterns within an agent-oriented regional model

The study focuses on the research on how the unevenness of demographic transition affects the social and demographic characteristics and their dynamics of a region’s population. The research was conducted by means of computerized experiments (simulations) set within an original agent-oriented model. The study features the structure of the model represented by an artificial society, with its members (agents) being attributed their personal characteristics in such a way that they would imitate the gender and age of the region’s population. The agents are divided into two groups which differ in their reproductive strategy. Agents from Group 1 adhere to the traditional strategy characterized by a high birth rate, while the agents from Group 2 follow the modern strategy resulting in a markedly low birth rate. With the application of probabilistic mechanisms, the natural birth-death processes are imitated within the model. The extinction of agents occurs in accordance with the death rates adjusted for age and gender but remaining the same for the whole population. In the model, the appearance of new agents (birth of children) results from the choice made by reproductive-aged female agents, and their choice is influenced by the subjective traits determined by their group. The age and social structure of the regional population are generally formed as a result of the aggregation of particular agents’ activity. The model has been applied in a range of experiments on forecasting the number and structure of the population in an assumed region. The results showed that despite the apparent simplification of the reality, the developed agent-oriented model correctly represents both the initial condition of the regional population including the gender, age and social structure and the dynamics of the population’s basic characteristics.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 14-18-01968)

Astrometric jitter of the sun as a star

The daily variation of the solar photocenter over some 11 years is derived from the Mount Wilson data reprocessed by Ulrich et al. 2010 to closely match the surface distribution of solar irradiance. The standard deviations of astrometric jitter are 0.52 $\mu$AU and 0.39 $\mu$AU in the equatorial and the axial dimensions, respectively. The overall dispersion is strongly correlated with the solar cycle, reaching $0.91 \mu$AU at the maximum activity in 2000. The largest short-term deviations from the running average (up to 2.6 $\mu$AU) occur when a group of large spots happen to lie on one side with respect to the center of the disk. The amplitude spectrum of the photocenter variations never exceeds 0.033 $\mu$AU for the range of periods 0.6--1.4 yr, corresponding to the orbital periods of planets in the habitable zone. Astrometric detection of Earth-like planets around stars as quiet as the Sun is not affected by star spot noise, but the prospects for more active stars may be limited to giant planets.Comment: Accepted in Ap

Groups of dwarf galaxies in the Local supercluster

We present a project on study of groups composed of dwarf galaxies only. We selected such structures using HyperLEDA and NED databases with visual inspection on SDSS images and on digital copy of POSS. The groups are characterized by size of few tens of kpc and line-of-sight velocity dispersion about 18 km/s. Our groups similar to associations of nearby dwarfs from Tully et al. (2006). This specific population of multiple dwarf galaxies such as IZw18 may contain significant amount of dark matter. It is very likely that we see them at the stage just before merging of its components.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; the proceedings of the conference "A Universe of dwarf galaxies" (Lyon, June 14-18, 2010

Selective Transport and Mobility Edges in Quasi-1D Systems with a Stratified Correlated Disorder

We present analytical results on transport properties of many-mode waveguides with randomly stratified disorder having long-range correlations. To describe such systems, the theory of 1D transport recently developed for a correlated disorder is generalized. The propagation of waves through such waveguides may reveal a quite unexpected phenomena of a complete transparency for a subset of propagating modes. We found that with a proper choice of long-range correlations one can arrange a perfect transparency of waveguides inside a given frequency window of incoming waves. Thus, mobility edges are shown to be possible in quasi-1D geometry with correlated disorder. The results may be important for experimental realizations of a selective transport in application to both waveguides and electron/optic nanodevices.Comment: RevTex, 4 pages, no figure

Application of Supercomputer Technologies for Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems

To date, an extensive experience has been accumulated in investigation of problems related to quality, assessment of management systems, modeling of economic system sustainability. The studies performed have created a basis for formation of a new research area — Economics of Quality. Its tools allow to use opportunities of model simulation for construction of the mathematical models adequately reflecting the role of quality in natural, technical, social regularities of functioning of the complex socioeconomic systems. Extensive application and development of models, and also system modeling with use of supercomputer technologies, on our deep belief, will bring the conducted researches of social and economic systems to essentially new level. Moreover, the current scientific research makes a significant contribution to model simulation of multi-agent social systems and that isn’t less important, it belongs to the priority areas in development of science and technology in our country. This article is devoted to the questions of supercomputer technologies application in public sciences, first of all, — regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM). The essence of this tool is that owing to increase in power of computers it became possible to describe the behavior of many separate fragments of a difficult system, as social and economic systems represent. The article also deals with the experience of foreign scientists and practicians in launching the AFM on supercomputers, and also the example of AFM developed in CEMI RAS, stages and methods of effective calculating kernel display of multi-agent system on architecture of a modern supercomputer will be analyzed. The experiments on the basis of model simulation on forecasting the population of St. Petersburg according to three scenarios as one of the major factors influencing the development of social and economic system and quality of life of the population are presented in the conclusion

Correlated and zonal errors of global astrometric missions: a spherical harmonic solution

We propose a computer-efficient and accurate method of estimation of spatially correlated errors in astrometric positions, parallaxes and proper motions obtained by space and ground-based astrometry missions. In our method, the simulated observational equations are set up and solved for the coefficients of scalar and vector spherical harmonics representing the output errors, rather than for individual objects in the output catalog. Both accidental and systematic correlated errors of astrometric parameters can be accurately estimated. The method is demonstrated on the example of the JMAPS mission, but can be used for other projects of space astrometry, such as SIM or JASMINE.Comment: Accepted by AJ, to be published in 201

The Extragalactic Distance Database: Color-Magnitude Diagrams

The CMDs/TRGB (Color-Magnitude Diagrams/Tip of the Red Giant Branch) section of the Extragalactic Distance Database contains a compilation of observations of nearby galaxies from the Hubble Space Telescope. Approximately 250 (and increasing) galaxies in the Local Volume have CMDs and the stellar photometry tables used to produce them available through the web. Various stellar populations that make up a galaxy are visible in the CMDs, but our primary purpose for collecting and analyzing these galaxy images is to measure the TRGB in each. We can estimate the distance to a galaxy by using stars at the TRGB as standard candles. In this paper we describe the process of constructing the CMDs and make the results available to the public.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 1 long table, submitted to Astronomical Journa