Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed

Proto-I axial-focusing experiments

The time-integrated axial (z) focus of the 4.5-cm-radius Proto I (1.5 MV, 500 kA) radial proton diode is presently limited to approx. 3 mm FWHM. This result is obtained with current neutralized beam transport in a gas cell with 6 Torr argon. If the vertical local divergence were the same (1/sup 0/ or less) as the horizontal divergence, the local divergence alone would produce a 1.5 mm FWHM focus. The axial focal size is evidently limited by time-dependent effects. These are studied by observing the beam incident upon various targets with two time-resolved pinhole cameras. The first camera observes Rutherford-scattered protons from gold targets with an array of 11 siicon PIN detectors. The second camera observes K/sub ..cap alpha../-fluorescence from aluminum targets with 4 independently-gated microchannel plates imaging tubes

Hot dense capsule implosion cores produced by z-pinch dynamic hohlraum radiation

Hot dense capsule implosions driven by z-pinch x-rays have been measured for the first time. A ~220 eV dynamic hohlraum imploded 1.7-2.1 mm diameter gas-filled CH capsules which absorbed up to ~20 kJ of x-rays. Argon tracer atom spectra were used to measure the Te~ 1keV electron temperature and the ne ~ 1-4 x10^23 cm-3 electron density. Spectra from multiple directions provide core symmetry estimates. Computer simulations agree well with the peak compression values of Te, ne, and symmetry, indicating reasonable understanding of the hohlraum and implosion physics.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Exploring the parameter space of MagLIF implosions using similarity scaling. II. Current scaling

Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) is a magneto-inertial-fusion (MIF) concept, which is presently being studied on the Z Pulsed Power Facility. The MagLIF platform has achieved interesting plasma conditions at stagnation and produced significant fusion yields in the laboratory. Given the relative success of MagLIF, there is a strong interest to scale the platform to higher peak currents. However, scaling MagLIF is not entirely straightforward due to the large dimensionality of the experimental input parameter space and the large number of distinct physical processes involved in MIF implosions. In this work, we propose a novel method to scale MagLIF loads to higher currents. Our method is based on similarity (or similitude) scaling and attempts to preserve much of the physics regimes already known or being studied on today's Z pulsed-power driver. By avoiding significant deviations into unexplored and/or less well-understood regimes, the risk of unexpected outcomes on future scaled-up experiments is reduced. Using arguments based on similarity scaling, we derive the scaling rules for the experimental input parameters characterizing a MagLIF load (as functions of the characteristic current driving the implosion). We then test the estimated scaling laws for various metrics measuring performance against results of 2D radiation--magneto-hydrodynamic HYDRA simulations. Agreement is found between the scaling theory and the simulation results.Comment: 19 pages, submitted to Physics of Plasma

An Inertial-Fusion Z-Pinch Power Plant Concept

With the promising new results of fast z-pinch technology developed at Sandia National Laboratories, we are investigating using z-pinch driven high-yield Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) as a fusion power plant energy source. These investigations have led to a novel fusion system concept based on an attempt to separate many of the difficult fusion engineering issues and a strict reliance on existing technology, or a reasonable extrapolation of existing technology, wherever possible. In this paper, we describe the main components of such a system with a focus on the fusion chamber dynamics. The concept works with all of the electrically-coupled ICF proposed fusion designs. It is proposed that a z-pinch driven ICF power system can be feasibly operated at high yields (1 to 30 GJ) with a relatively low pulse rate (0.01-0.1 Hz). To deliver the required current from the rep-rated pulse power driver to the z-pinch diode, a Recyclable Transmission Line (RTL) and the integrated target hardware are fabricated, vacuum pumped, and aligned prior to loading for each power pulse. In this z-pinch driven system, no laser or ion beams propagate in the chamber such that the portion of the chamber outside the RTL does not need to be under vacuum. Additionally, by utilizing a graded-density solid lithium or fluorine/lithium/beryllium eutectic (FLiBe) blanket between the source and the first-wall the system can breed its own fuel absorb a large majority of the fusion energy released from each capsule and shield the first-wall from a damaging neutron flux. This neutron shielding significantly reduces the neutron energy fluence at the first-wall such that radiation damage should be minimal and will not limit the first-wall lifetime. Assuming a 4 m radius, 8 m tall cylindrical chamber design with an 80 cm thick spherical FLiBe blanket, our calculations suggest that a 20 cm thick 6061-T6 Al chamber wall will reach the equivalent uranium ore radioactivity level within 100 years after a 30 year plant operation. The implication of this low radioactivity is that a z-pinch driven power plant may not require deep geologic waste storage

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion