On-Road NOx and Smoke Emissions of Diesel Light Commercial Vehicles–Combining Remote Sensing Measurements from across Europe

Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) account for about 10-15% of road traffic in Europe. There have only been few investigations on their on-road emission performance. Here, on-road remote sensing vehicle emission measurements from 18 locations across four European countries are combined for a comprehensive analysis of NOx and smoke emission rates from diesel LCV in the past two decades. This allows differentiating the performance by emission standards, model years, curb weights, engine loads, manufacturers, vehicle age, and temperature, as well as by measurement devices. We find a general consistency between devices and countries. On-road NOx emission rates have been much higher than type approval limit values for all manufacturers, but some perform systematically better than others. Emission rates have gone down only with the introduction of Euro 6a-b emission standards since the year 2015. Smoke emission rates are considered a proxy for particulate emissions. Their emissions have decrease substantially from the year 2010 onward for all countries and size classes measured. This is consistent with the substantial tightening of the particulate matter emission limit value that typically forced the introduction of a diesel particulate filter. The average NOx emission rate increases with engine load and decreasing ambient temperatures, particularly for Euro 4 and 5 emission classes. This explains to a large extent the differences in the absolute level between the measurement sites together with differences in fleet composition. These dependencies have already been observed earlier with diesel passenger cars; they are considered part of an abnormal emission control strategy. Some limited increase of the NOx emission rate is observed for Euro 3 vehicles older than 10 years. The strong increase for the youngest Euro 6 LCVs might rather reflect technology advances with successively younger models than genuine deterioration. However, the durability of emission controls for Euro 6 vehicles should be better monitored closely. Smoke emission rates continuously increase with vehicle age, suggesting a deterioration of the after-treatment system with use

Emissions of air pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2011 Energy Scenarios

This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2012 (OECD/IEA, 2012). Estimates include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model (WEM). Emissions have been estimated using the IIASA GAINS model. The 2012 Outlook discusses four energy pathways for the next 25 years. The central scenario, the New Policies (NP) scenario, takes into account recently announced policy commitments and assumes that they are implemented in a cautious manner. The Current Policies (CP) scenario assumes no new policies beyond those adopted by mid-2012. The High Energy Efficiency (HE) scenario simulates the effects of policies aimed at promoting energy efficiency in all countries in the world. The 450 scenario assumes radical policy action consistent with limiting the global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. All four pathways were implemented into the GAINS model. Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by mid-2012. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires). In 2010, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 86 million tons. OECD countries contributed 21 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the Current Policies Scenario causes an eight percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020 compared with 2010. This is a combined result of reducing emissions from OECD countries (by about 24 percent), increase in India, and a decrease in China, Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After 2020, emissions from many non-OECD countries continue rising, which causes an increase of world emissions by about five million tons until 2035. Particularly remarkable is the increase in SO2 emissions in India. The corresponding numbers for NOx are: 85 million tons in 2010 (of which 35 percent originated from the OECD countries), five percent decrease until 2020 and next increase until 2035 by 12 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (43 million tons in 2010) are dominated by sources from non-OECD countries - 90 percent of total. Changes in the emissions until 2035 are rather small, with a seven percent decrease in the OECD countries and a stabilization in the developing world. The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035, the emissions of SO2 are 36 percent lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 32 percent and those of PM2.5 by 11 percent. Emissions for the New Policies and the High Energy Efficiency scenarios lie between those for the Current Policies and the 450 scenarios. Costs of controlling emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides and PM (dust) in 2010 are estimated at about 217 billion Euros/a. Until 2035, these costs increase in the Current Policies Scenario by more than a factor of two, which is due to higher activity levels and increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 61 percent of the total costs are the expenditures on reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 32 percent cost savings in 2035 compared to the Current Policies case. This study also estimates health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM concentrations as in 2010 cause a loss of about 2.2 billion life-years. This estimate is dominated by impacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator in 2035 by 46 percent to 3.3 billion. Decrease of PM2.5 concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in 2035 saves about 870 million life-years. Lower impact indicators and lower control costs in the scenarios that simulate effects of policies towards reducing energy demand and the use of fossil fuels clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of such policies for air pollution

Emissions of air pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2012 energy scenarios

This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2012 (OECD/IEA, 2012). Estimates include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model (WEM). Emissions have been estimated using the IIASA GAINS model. The 2012 Outlook discusses four energy pathways for the next 25 years. The central scenario, the New Policies (NP) scenario, takes into account recently announced policy commitments and assumes that they are implemented in a cautious manner. The Current Policies (CP) scenario assumes no new policies beyond those adopted by mid-2012. The High Energy Efficiency (HE) scenario simulates the effects of policies aimed at promoting energy efficiency in all countries in the world. The 450 scenario assumes radical policy action consistent with limiting the global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius (2 oC). All the four pathways were implemented into the GAINS model. Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by mid-2012. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires). In 2010, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 86 million tons. OECD countries contributed 21 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the Current Policies Scenario causes an eight percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020 compared with 2010. This is a combined result of reducing emissions from OECD countries (by about 24 percent), increase in India, and a decrease in China, Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After 2020, emissions from many non-OECD countries continue rising, which causes an increase of world emissions by about five million tons until 2035. Particularly remarkable is the increase in SO2 emissions in India. The corresponding numbers for NOx are: 85 million tons in 2010 (of which 35 percent originated from the OECD countries), five percent decrease until 2020 and next increase until 2035 by 12 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (43 million tons in 2010) are dominated by sources from non-OECD countries -- 90 percent of total. Changes in the emissions until 2035 are rather small, with a seven percent decrease in the OECD countries and a stabilization in the developing world. The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035, the emissions of SO2 are 36 percent lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 32 percent and those of PM2.5 by 11 percent. Emissions for the New Policies and the High Energy Efficiency scenarios lie between those for the Current Policies and the 450 scenarios. Costs of controlling emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides and PM (dust) in 2010 are estimated at about 217 billion Euros/a. Until 2035, these costs increase in the Current Policies Scenario by more than a factor of two, which is due to higher activity levels and increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 61 percent of the total costs are the expenditures on reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 32 percent cost savings in 2035 compared to the Current Policies case. This study also estimates health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM concentrations as in 2010 cause a loss of about 2.2 billion life-years. This estimate is dominated by impacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator in 2035 by 46 percent to 3.3 billion. Decrease of PM2.5 concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in 2035 saves about 870 million life-years. Lower impact indicators and lower control costs in the scenarios that simulate effects of policies towards reducing energy demand and the use of fossil fuels clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of such policies for air pollution

TSAP-2012 Baseline: Health and environmental impacts

This report examines the health and environmental impacts of the TSAP-2012 baseline emission scenarios that have been presented in the TSAP Report #1 to the Stakeholder Expert Group in June 2012. The baseline suggests for the next decades a steady decline of energy-related emissions from industry, households and transport while no significant changes are foreseen for NH3 from agricultural activities. These emission trajectories will lead to significant improvements in air quality. For instance, loss of statistical life expectancy from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is expected to decline from 9.6 months in 2000 and 6.9 months in 2010 to 5.5 months in 2020 and 5.0 months in 2030. It is estimated that the number of premature deaths attributable to short-term exposure of ground-level ozone will drop by about 30% by 2020. Ecosystems area where biodiversity is threatened by excess nitrogen deposition will shrink from 1.2 million km2 in 2000 to 900,000 km2 in 2030, and acidification will remain an issue at only four percent of the European forest area. However, by 2020 the baseline improvements for fine particular matter health impacts and eutrophication will fall short of the targets established in the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, while for acidification and ozone these targets will be met. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the baseline development will achieve full compliance with the air quality limit values for PM10 and NO2 throughout Europe. Equally, the baseline scenario will not provide protection against excess nitrogen deposition at almost 50% of the legally protected Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. In addition, the magnitude of air pollution impacts and resulting damage remains substantial. It is estimated that for the baseline in 2030, the European population would still suffer a loss of 210 million life-years and experience 18,000 premature deaths because of ozone exposure. Biodiversity will remain threatened by excess nitrogen input at 900,000 km2 of ecosystems, including 250,000 km2 which are legally protected, inter alia as Natura2000 areas. The analysis also highlights the scope for additional measures that could alleviate the remaining damage and move closer to the objectives of the Sixth Environment Action Program. Full application of readily available technical emission reduction measures in the EU could reduce health impacts from PM by 2020 by another 30% and thereby gain more than 55 million life-years in the EU. It could save another 3,000 premature deaths per year because of lower ozone concentrations. Further controls of agricultural emissions could protect biodiversity at another 200,000 km2 of ecosystems against excess nitrogen deposition, including 50,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. It could eliminate almost all likely exceedances of PM10 air quality limit values in the old Member States, while in the urban areas of new Member States additional action to substitute solid fuels in the household sector with cleaner forms of energy would be required. Such Europe-wide emission controls would also eliminate in 2030 all likely cases of noncompliance with EU air quality standards for NO2 with the exception of a few stations for which additional local measures (e.g., traffic restrictions, low emission zones) would be necessary. While the general trend appears to be robust, quantification of the remaining effects requires more uncertainty analyses

GAINS ASIA: Scenarios for cost-effective control of air pollution and greenhouse gases in India

There is growing recognition that a comprehensive and combined analysis of air pollution and climate change could reveal important synergies of emission control measures. Insight into the multiple benefits of measures could make emission controls economically more viable, both in industrialized and developing countries. However, while scientific understanding on many individual aspects of air pollution and climate change has considerably increased in the last years, little attention has been paid to a holistic analysis of the interactions between both problems. The Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model has been developed as a tool to identify emission control strategies that maximize synergies between the control of local air quality and the mitigation of greenhouse emissions. GAINS investigates how specific mitigation measures simultaneously influence different pollutants that threaten human health via the exposure of fine particles and ground-level ozone, damage natural vegetation and crops, contribute to climate change. In recent years the GAINS model has been implemented for India in collaboration between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). This report presents a first analysis conducted with the GAINS model that highlights how strategies to control local air quality could be designed in such a way that co-benefits on greenhouse gas mitigation could be maximized

Dew-worms in white nights: High-latitude light constrains earthworm (Lumbricus terrestris) behaviour at the soil surface

Soil is an effective barrier to light penetration that limits the direct influence of light on belowground organisms. Variation in aboveground light conditions, however, is important to soil-dwelling animals that are periodically active on the soil surface. A prime example is the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris L. (the dew-worm), an ecosystem engineer that emerges nocturnally on the soil surface. In the summer, the northernmost populations of L. terrestris are exposed to a time interval with no daily dark period. During a two-week period preceding the summer solstice, we studied the constraints that boreal night illumination imposes on L. terrestris surface activity by comparing their behaviour under ambient light with artificially-induced darkness. Looking for evidence of geographical divergence in light response, we compared the behaviour of native L. terrestris (Jokioinen, S–W Finland; 60°48′N) with two markedly more southern populations, from Preston (Lancashire, UK; 53°47′N) and Coshocton (Ohio, USA; 40°22′N) where the nights have a period of darkness throughout the year (total latitudinal range ca. 2300 km). Under ambient light conditions, L. terrestris emergence on the soil surface was diminished by half compared with the darkened treatment and it peaked at the darkest period of the night. Also mating rate decreased considerably under ambient light. The native dew-worms were generally the most active under ambient light. They emerged earlier in the evening and ceased their activity later in the morning than dew-worms from the two more southerly populations. The differences in behaviour were, however, significant mainly between native and UK dew-worms. In the darkened treatment, the behaviour of the three earthworm origins did not differ. Under the experimental conditions light condition was the dominant environmental factor controlling surface activity, but elevated night-time air temperature and humidity also encouraged dew-worm emergence without discernible differences among geographical origins. Our results show, that in boreal summer, the high level of night illumination strongly limits soil-surface activity of dew-worms. Considering the important regulatory role of L. terrestris in many ecosystem processes, this can have significant corollaries in dew-worm impacts on the environment. Although evidence for geographical differentiation in behaviour was obtained, the results point to phenotypic flexibility in L. terrestris light response

SLCP assessment for the Latin America and Caribbean. Final Report (Version 1.0)

This Final Report summarizes the IIASA contributions to the SLCP Assessment for LAC project. IIASA has delivered all agreed outputs with respect to modelling work required to develop baseline and mitigation scenarios where key SLCP mitigation measures were identified. The results in form of gridded emission fields were provided to the impact and climate modelling groups involved in the project. The developed protocol for data collection allowed to acquire a harmonized data set on emissions within the region for which a number of issues were identified and it was compared with the GAINS database, leading to its improvement. This exchange between the national experts and IIASA modelling team opens up a possibility for further collaboration where also ROLAC will play a role as the information has been stored there. The final historical inventories have been harmonized with the global GAINS database and served development of scenarios. While the GAINS model has been further developed to consider specific LAC circumstances and availability of new data, the baseline and mitigation scenarios were developed in a consistent way with the global UNEP/WMO Assessment allowing a comparison of the results. The finally selected SLCP measures include additional options which were not part of the global assessment, for example, reduction of gas flaring, introduction of Marques brick kilns, shale gas options, and options to mitigate HFCs

Final Report The potential for cost-effective air emission reductions from international shipping through designation of further Emission Control Areas in EU waters with focus on the Mediterranean Sea

This study explores the impacts of alternative emission control interventions for international shipping on the European Seas on relevant air pollutant emissions, examines their consequence on ambient air quality in Europe and the neighbouring regions, and explores the resulting improvements of human health. It estimates the costs of the various policy interventions, and compares them with monetized benefits on human health and other impacts. It is found that further controls of SO₂ emissions, e.g., through SO₂ emission control areas, could deliver rather fast benefits, and avoid by 2030 up to 4000 cases of premature deaths annually, and 8000 in 2050. In the longer run, by 2050, application of Tier III NOx standards could double the health benefits. Even when using the lower (most conservative) health valuation, all reduction measures examined in this report emerged as cost-effective, with monetized benefits exceeding emission control costs typically by a factor of 6 in 2030 and by a factor of 12 in 2050. Designation of the Mediterranean Sea as an Emission Control Area could by 2030 cut emissions of SO2 and NOx from international shipping by 80 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to current legislation. These additional emission reductions could avoid 4,100 cases of premature deaths in 2030 and more than 10,000 annual premature deaths in 2050. Even with the most conservative assumptions for health valuation, monetized benefits are on average 4.4 times higher than the costs in 2030 and 7.5 times higher in 2050