Biotic Contributions to the Global Carbon Cycle: The Role of Remote Sensing

The CO2 content of the atmosphere is increasing currently as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels and the oxidation of vegetation and soils associated with changes in the use of land. Prediction of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future requires a better understanding of how important these land-use changes are currently and how important they have been in the past. In this paper we present an analysis of past changes in the terrestrial biota and soils of the earth. The analysis is based on rates of forest harvest and regrowth, rates of land conversion to agriculture, and on the changes in biomass and soil carbon that accompany these uses of land. The results of the analysis show that changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere that until recently was larger than the release from combustion of fossil fuels. There is still a large uncertainty in the analysis, however, largely because of conflicting reports as to the current rate of disappearance of tropical forests. We outline the kinds of information needed to improve the analysis and believe that remote sensing is of use immediately in reducing the range of uncertainty by a factor of two to four

Instanton vibrations of the 3-Skyrmion

The Atiyah-Drinfeld-Hitchin-Manin matrix corresponding to a tetrahedrally symmetric 3-instanton is calculated. Some small variations of the matrix correspond to vibrations of the instanton-generated 3-Skyrmion. These vibrations are decomposed under tetrahedral symmetry and this decomposition is compared to previous knowledge of the 3-Skyrmion vibration spectrum.Comment: 10 pages, LaTeX, no figures, PRD version with longer introduction and minor change

Symmetric Skyrmions

We present candidates for the global minimum energy solitons of charge one to nine in the Skyrme model, generated using sophisticated numerical algorithms. Assuming the Skyrme model accurately represents the low energy limit of QCD, these configurations correspond to the classical nuclear ground states of the light elements. The solitons found are particularly symmetric, for example, the charge seven skyrmion has icosahedral symmetry, and the shapes are shown to fit a remarkable sequence defined by a geometric energy minimization (GEM) rule. We also calculate the energies and sizes to within at least a few percent accuracy. These calculations provide the basis for a future investigation of the low energy vibrational modes of skyrmions and hence the possibility of testing the Skyrme model against experiment.Comment: latex, 9 pages, 1 figure (fig1.gif

Fast and Slow Rotators in the Densest Environments: a SWIFT IFS study of the Coma Cluster

We present integral-field spectroscopy of 27 galaxies in the Coma cluster observed with the Oxford SWIFT spectrograph, exploring the kinematic morphology-density relationship in a cluster environment richer and denser than any in the ATLAS3D survey. Our new data enables comparison of the kinematic morphology relation in three very different clusters (Virgo, Coma and Abell 1689) as well as to the field/group environment. The Coma sample was selected to match the parent luminosity and ellipticity distributions of the early-type population within a radius 15' (0.43 Mpc) of the cluster centre, and is limited to r' = 16 mag (equivalent to M_K = -21.5 mag), sampling one third of that population. From analysis of the lambda-ellipticity diagram, we find 15+-6% of early-type galaxies are slow rotators; this is identical to the fraction found in the field and the average fraction in the Virgo cluster, based on the ATLAS3D data. It is also identical to the average fraction found recently in Abell 1689 by D'Eugenio et al.. Thus it appears that the average slow rotator fraction of early type galaxies remains remarkably constant across many different environments, spanning five orders of magnitude in galaxy number density. However, within each cluster the slow rotators are generally found in regions of higher projected density, possibly as a result of mass segregation by dynamical friction. These results provide firm constraints on the mechanisms that produce early-type galaxies: they must maintain a fixed ratio between the number of fast rotators and slow rotators while also allowing the total early-type fraction to increase in clusters relative to the field. A complete survey of Coma, sampling hundreds rather than tens of galaxies, could probe a more representative volume of Coma and provide significantly stronger constraints, particularly on how the slow rotator fraction varies at larger radii.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Carbon in the Former Soviet Union: The Current Balance

This work has been carried out in a period of great changes in Russia that have brought extreme hardships to the scientific community. We have been fortunate in establishing excellent relationships with the Russian scientific community and believe we have helped to retain coherence in circumstances where the continuation of research was in doubt. We have learned much and have been effective in advancing, even establishing, scholars and programs in Russia that might not otherwise have survived the transition. The vigor of the International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) is one sign of the value and success of these activities. Largely due to the current political and economic transitions in the former Soviet Union, the forests of much of the FSU are under reduced logging pressure. In addition, there is a decline in air pollution as heavy industry has waned, at least for now. Russian forestry statistics and our personal experience indicate a decline, perhaps as high as 60%, in forest harvesting over the last few years. But, new international market pressures on the forests exist in European Russia and in the Far East. The central government, still the "owner" of Russian forests, is having difficulty maintaining control over forest use and management particularly in the Far East and among the southern territories that have large, nonRussian ethnic populations. Extraordinarily large areas of mixed forest and grasslands, sparse or open forests, and mixed forests and tundra must be considered when calculating forest area It is insufficient to think of Russia as simply forest and nonforest Forest productivity, measured as growth of timber, appears to be in decline in all areas of Russia except in European Russia. Most information and publications on the recent history of these forests is heavily dependent on statistical data from the Soviet era. The interpretation of these data is very much open to debate. Anatoly Shwidenko, a long term collaborator and former senior scientist (mensuration) for the Soviet Committee on Forests, now a scholar at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, has provided abundant contributions from the data available to him and from his experience. Forest stand carbon is concentrated in the Russian Far East (i.e. Primorski Kray), Central-Southern Siberia and European Russia But, soil carbon can be 10 times forest stand C. Our efforts in mapping the area and changes in area (as well as the internal structure) of forests have made major contributions to our joint understanding of the scale and status of these forests. To realize the importance of this contribution one needs only to recognize that any large scale Soviet-era maps of the area did not include latitude and longitude. Even today, there is great reluctance to provide these data, the basis of any GIS

Distributed situation awareness in dynamic systems: Theoretical development and application of an ergonomics methodology

The purpose of this paper is to propose foundations for a theory of situation awareness based on the analysis of interactions between agents (i.e., both human and non-human) in subsystems. This approach may help promote a better understanding of technology-mediated interaction in systems, as well as helping in the formulation of hypotheses and predictions concerning distributed situation awareness. It is proposed that agents within a system each hold their own situation awareness which may be very different from (although compatible with) other agents. It is argued that we should not always hope for, or indeed want, sharing of this awareness, as different system agents have different purposes. This view marks situation awareness as a 1 dynamic and collaborative process that binds agents together on tasks on a moment-by-moment basis. Implications of this viewpoint for development of a new theory of, and accompanying methodology for, distributed situation awareness are offered

Development of a generic activities model of command and control

This paper reports on five different models of command and control. Four different models are reviewed: a process model, a contextual control model, a decision ladder model and a functional model. Further to this, command and control activities are analysed in three distinct domains: armed forces, emergency services and civilian services. From this analysis, taxonomies of command and control activities are developed that give rise to an activities model of command and control. This model will be used to guide further research into technological support of command and control activities

Ranking the Predictive Power of Clinical and Biological Features Associated With Disease Progression in Huntington's Disease

Huntington’s disease (HD) is characterised by a triad of cognitive, behavioural, and motor symptoms which lead to functional decline and loss of independence. With potential disease-modifying therapies in development, there is interest in accurately measuring HD progression and characterising prognostic variables to improve efficiency of clinical trials. Using the large, prospective Enroll-HD cohort, we investigated the relative contribution and ranking of potential prognostic variables in patients with manifest HD. A random forest regression model was trained to predict change of clinical outcomes based on the variables, which were ranked based on their contribution to the prediction. The highest-ranked variables included novel predictors of progression—being accompanied at clinical visit, cognitive impairment, age at diagnosis and tetrabenazine or antipsychotics use—in addition to established predictors, cytosine adenine guanine (CAG) repeat length and CAG-age product. The novel prognostic variables improved the ability of the model to predict clinical outcomes and may be candidates for statistical control in HD clinical studies

Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics

The atmospheric greenhouse effect, an idea that many authors trace back to the traditional works of Fourier (1824), Tyndall (1861), and Arrhenius (1896), and which is still supported in global climatology, essentially describes a fictitious mechanism, in which a planetary atmosphere acts as a heat pump driven by an environment that is radiatively interacting with but radiatively equilibrated to the atmospheric system. According to the second law of thermodynamics such a planetary machine can never exist. Nevertheless, in almost all texts of global climatology and in a widespread secondary literature it is taken for granted that such mechanism is real and stands on a firm scientific foundation. In this paper the popular conjecture is analyzed and the underlying physical principles are clarified. By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 degrees Celsius is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified.Comment: 115 pages, 32 figures, 13 tables (some typos corrected