Monte Carlo Simulation in Environmental Risk Assessment--Science, Policy and Legal Issues

Dr. Poulter notes that agencies should anticipate judicial requirements for justification of Monte Carlo simulations and, meanwhile, should consider, e.g., whether their use will make risk assessment policy choices more opaque or apparent

Smoking, dementia and cognitive decline in the elderly, a systematic review.

Background. Nicotine may aid reaction time, learning and memory, but smoking increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to increased risk of dementia. A previous meta-analysis found that current smokers were at higher risk of subsequent dementia, Alzheimers disease, vascular dementia and cognitive decline. Methods. In order to update and examine this further a systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out using different search and inclusion criteria, database selection and more recent publications. Both reviews were restricted to those aged 65 and over. Results. The review reported here found a significantly increased risk of Alzheimers disease with current smoking and a likely but not significantly increased risk of vascular dementia, dementia unspecified and cognitive decline. Neither review found clear relationships with former smoking. Conclusion. Current smoking increases risk of Alzheimers disease and may increase risk of other dementias. This reinforces need for smoking cessation, particularly aged 65 and over. Nicotine alone needs further investigation. © 2008 Peters et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Reduced sensitivity to visual looming inflates the risk posed by speeding vehicles when children try to cross the road

Almost all locomotor animals respond to visual looming or to discrete changes in optical size. The need to detect and process looming remains critically important for humans in everyday life. Road traffic statistics confirm that children up to 15 years old are overrepresented in pedestrian casualties. We demonstrate that, for a given pedestrian crossing time, vehicles traveling faster loom less than slower vehicles, which creates a dangerous illusion in which faster vehicles may be perceived as not approaching. Our results from perceptual tests of looming thresholds show strong developmental trends in sensitivity, such that children may not be able to detect vehicles approaching at speeds in excess of 20 mph. This creates a risk of injudicious road crossing in urban settings when traffic speeds are higher than 20 mph. The risk is exacerbated because vehicles moving faster than this speed are more likely to result in pedestrian fatalities

Some Winter Flowering Plants

While collecting native specimens for a herbarium during the fall of 1923, it was noticed that several species bloomed quite late, and would stand freezing and thawing time after time, without apparent damage to the flowers. A geranium which was left out of doors in a flower pot, and lived until the latter part of December, aroused our curiosity as to just how much cold weather some plants would stand

Decolonising quantitative research methods pedagogy: teaching contemporary politics to challenge hierarchies from data

Decolonisation of the curriculum in higher education is a radical, transformative process of change that interrogates the enduring Eurocentric and racist narratives surrounding the production of academic ‘knowledge’. Our key argument is that it is essential for students of politics to understand the authorities and hierarchies exerted through quantitative data. In this paper, we show that (1) quantitative methods and data literacy can be an explicit tool in the endeavour to challenge structures of oppression, and (2) there is a need to apply decolonial principles to the teaching of quantitative methods, prioritising the historical contextualisation and anti-racist critique of the ways in which statistics amplify existing micro and macro power relations. To explain how this can be done, we begin with a commentary on the ‘state of decolonisation’ in higher education, its relevance to the sub-disciplines of politics, and its application to quantitative teaching in the UK. We then suggest some guiding principles for a decolonial approach to quantitative methods teaching, and present substantive examples from political sociology, international political economy, and international development. These suggestions and examples show how a decolonial lens advances critical and emancipatory thinking in undergraduate students of politics when it is used with quantitative methods

Domain wall entropy of the bimodal two-dimensional Ising spin glass

We report calculations of the domain wall entropy for the bimodal two-dimensional Ising spin glass in the critical ground state. The L * L system sizes are large with L up to 256. We find that it is possible to fit the variance of the domain wall entropy to a power function of L. However, the quality of the data distributions are unsatisfactory with large L > 96. Consequently, it is not possible to reliably determine the fractal dimension of the domain walls.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PR

Sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in populous Asia

The recently concluded 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to limit the increase in global temperature to less than 2oC above pre-industrial levels, with a more aspirational target of 1.5oC. Achieving these policy goals will require extraordinary input from the scientific community to define anthropogenic emission targets that account for natural biosphere sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2), consistent with the climate targets. Asian countries, being densely populated and emerging global economic powers, are key players in defining future emission trajectories. The average fossil emissions from the three regions are estimated to be 2.4, 0.5 and 0.3 PgC yr-1 for East, South and Southeast Asia, respectively, and have increased by 67, 58 and 33% over the period 2003-2012. Here, we estimate land biosphere CO2 fluxes using: 1) simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models driven with global and regional atmospheric and climate observations and 2) atmospheric CO2 inverse models. Based on observations of atmospheric CO2 and inverse models, we show that on average over the period 2003 - 2012, the land biosphere (excluding fossil fuel emissions) in the three Asian regions in our study is either a CO2 sink (0.35 PgC yr-1 in East Asia) or source neutral (South and Southeast Asia). Consistently, our terrestrial ecosystem modeling suggests that the land biosphere of South and Southeast Asia were nearly neutral, but disagrees for East Asia

Distribution Patterns of Eastern Red-Cedar Juniperus virginiana L. in Henry County, Iowa

The distribution patterns of Eastern red-cedar were studied in Henry County, Iowa, in a general survey and also in three intensive study areas in Marion, Jackson, and Wayne townships. It was found that the abundant seed sources of red-cedar and the predominantly rolling land in Henry County make extensive establishment of red-cedars possible. In the northern tier of townships red-cedars are restricted to fence lines and roadsides whereas in the hilly southern three tiers of townships they are much more abundant

Locations of marine animals revealed by carbon isotopes

Knowing the distribution of marine animals is central to understanding climatic and other environmental influences on population ecology. This information has proven difficult to gain through capture-based methods biased by capture location. Here we show that marine location can be inferred from animal tissues. As the carbon isotope composition of animal tissues varies with sea surface temperature, marine location can be identified by matching time series of carbon isotopes measured in tissues to sea surface temperature records. Applying this technique to populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) produces isotopically-derived maps of oceanic feeding grounds, consistent with the current understanding of salmon migrations, that additionally reveal geographic segregation in feeding grounds between individual philopatric populations and age-classes. Carbon isotope ratios can be used to identify the location of open ocean feeding grounds for any pelagic animals for which tissue archives and matching records of sea surface temperature are available

Energy gap of the bimodal two-dimensional Ising spin glass

An exact algorithm is used to compute the degeneracies of the excited states of the bimodal Ising spin glass in two dimensions. It is found that the specific heat at arbitrary low temperature is not a self-averaging quantity and has a distribution that is neither normal or lognormal. Nevertheless, it is possible to estimate the most likely value and this is found to scale as L^3 T^(-2) exp(-4J/kT), for a L*L lattice. Our analysis also explains, for the first time, why a correlation length \xi ~ exp(2J/kT) is consistent with an energy gap of 2J. Our method allows us to obtain results for up to 10^5 disorder realizations with L <= 64. Distributions of second and third excitations are also shown.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure