A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10-20yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European regio

Trial and error versus errorless learning of functional skills in patients with acute stroke

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of errorless learning versus trial and error learning for teaching activities of daily living to patients with acute stroke with or without explicit memory impairments. Design: Randomized crossover. Setting: Rehabilitation hospital. Participants: 33 adult subjects following an acute stroke. Intervention: Subjects were taught to prepare a wheelchair for a transfer and to put on a sock with a sock-donner. Tasks were taught using errorless learning or trial and error learning. Explicit memory was assessed using the Neurobehavioral Cognitive Status Exam. Main Outcome Measures: Days until subject was able to demonstrate retention of the task, and success or failure at carry-over to a similar task. Results: No significant differences were found in days to retention for either functional task when taught using errorless learning or trial and error learning in subjects with or without explicit memory impairments. Carry-over was significantly better when trial and error learning was used for learning sock donning. Conclusions: When choosing the best learning method for patients undergoing rehabilitation for stroke, the nature of the task should be considered. Additional research is needed to identify the best approach for teaching activities of daily living and facilitating carry-over of learning in individuals with acute stroke

Association between circulating osteocalcin and cardiometabolic risk factors following a 4-week leafy green vitamin K-rich diet

© 2020 S. Karger AG, Basel. Copyright: All rights reserved. Background: Evidence suggests that lower serum undercarboxylated osteocalcin (ucOC) may be negatively associated with cardiometabolic health. We investigated whether individuals with a suppression of ucOC following an increase in dietary vitamin K1 exhibit a relative worsening of cardiometabolic risk factors. Materials and Methods: Men (n = 20) and women (n = 10) aged 62 ± 10 years participated in a randomized, controlled, crossover study. The primary analysis involved using data obtained from participants following a high vitamin K1 diet (HK; 4-week intervention of increased leafy green vegetable intake). High and low responders were defined based on the median percent reduction (30%) in ucOC following the HK diet. Blood pressure (resting and 24 h), arterial stiffness, plasma glucose, lipid concentrations, and serum OC forms were assessed. Results: Following the HK diet, ucOC and ucOC/tOC were suppressed more (p \u3c 0.01) in high responders (41 and 29%) versus low responders (12 and 10%). The reduction in ucOC and ucOC/tOC was not associated with changes in blood pressure, arterial stiffness, plasma glucose, or lipid concentrations in the high responders (p \u3e 0.05). Discussion/Conclusion: Suppression of ucOC via consumption of leafy green vegetables has no negative effects on cardiometabolic health, perhaps, in part, because of cross-talk mechanisms

The effects of acute high-intensity interval exercise and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp on osteoglycin levels in young and middle-aged men

Osteoglycin (OGN) is a leucine-rich proteoglycan that has been implicated in the regulation of glucose in animal models. However, its relationship with glucose control in humans is unclear. We examined the effect of high-intensity interval exercise (HIIE) and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp on circulating levels of OGN as well as whether circulating OGN levels are associated with markers of glycemic control and cardio-metabolic health. Serum was analyzed for OGN (ELISA) levels from 9 middle-aged obese men (58.1 ± 2.2 years, body mass index [BMI] = 33.1 ± 1.4 kg∙m − 2, mean ± SEM) and 9 young men (27.8 ± 1.6 years, BMI = 24.4 ± 0.08 kg∙m − 2) who previously completed a study involving a euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp at rest and after HIIE (4 x 4 minutes cycling at approximately 95% peak heart rate (HRpeak), interspersed with 2 minutes of active recovery). Blood pressure, body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and insulin sensitivity (hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp) were assessed. Serum OGN was higher in the young cohort compared with the middle-aged cohort (65.2 ± 10.1 ng/mL versus 36.5 ± 4. 5 ng/mL, p ≤ 0.05). Serum OGN was unaffected by acute HIIE but decreased after the insulin clamp compared with baseline (~ − 27 %, p = 0.01), post-exercise (~ − 35 %, p = 0.01), and pre-clamp (~ − 32 %, p = 0.02) time points, irrespective of age. At baseline, lower circulating OGN levels were associated with increased age, BMI, and fat mass, whereas higher OGN levels were related to lower fasting glucose. Higher OGN levels were associated with a higher glucose infusion rate. Exercise had a limited effect on circulating OGN. The mechanisms by which OGN affects glucose regulation should be explored in the future

Is it cheating or learning the craft of writing? Using Turnitin to help students avoid plagiarism

Plagiarism is a growing problem for universities, many of which are turning to software detection for help in detecting and dealing with it. This paper explores issues around plagiarism and reports on a study of the use of Turnitin in a new university. The purpose of the study was to inform the senior management team about the plagiarism policy and the use of Turnitin. The study found that staff and students largely understood the university’s policy and Turnitin’s place within it, and were very supportive of the use of Turnitin in originality checking. Students who had not used Turnitin were generally keen to do so. The recommendation to the senior management team, which was implemented, was that the use of Turnitin for originality checking should be made compulsory where possible - at the time of the study the use of Turnitin was at the discretion of programme directors. A further aim of the study was to contribute to the sector’s body of knowledge. Prevention of plagiarism through education is a theme identified by Badge and Scott (2009) who conclude an area lacking in research is "investigation of the impact of these tools on staff teaching practices". Although a number of recent studies have considered educational use of Turnitin they focus on individual programmes or subject areas rather than institutions as a whole and the relationship with policy

Femtojoule electro-optic modulation using a silicon-organic hybrid device

Energy-efficient electro-optic modulators are at the heart of short-reach optical interconnects, and silicon photonics is considered the leading technology for realizing such devices. However, the performance of all-silicon devices is limited by intrinsic material properties. In particular, the absence of linear electro-optic effects in silicon renders the integration of energy-efficient photonic-electronic interfaces challenging. Silicon-organic hybrid (SOH) integration can overcome these limitations by combining nanophotonic silicon waveguides with organic cladding materials, thereby offering the prospect of designing optical properties by molecular engineering. In this paper, we demonstrate an SOH Mach-Zehnder modulator with unprecedented efficiency: the 1-mm-long device consumes only 0.7 fJ bit(-1) to generate a 12.5 Gbit s(-1) data stream with a bit-error ratio below the threshold for hard-decision forward-error correction. This power consumption represents the lowest value demonstrated for a non-resonant Mach-Zehnder modulator in any material system. It is enabled by a novel class of organic electro-optic materials that are designed for high chromophore density and enhanced molecular orientation. The device features an electro-optic coefficient of r(33) approximate to 180 pm V-1 and can be operated at data rates of up to 40 Gbit s(-1)

Femtojoule electro-optic modulation using a silicon-organic hybrid device

Energy-efficient electro-optic modulators are at the heart of short-reach optical interconnects, and silicon photonics is considered the leading technology for realizing such devices. However, the performance of all-silicon devices is limited by intrinsic material properties. In particular, the absence of linear electro-optic effects in silicon renders the integration of energy-efficient photonic-electronic interfaces challenging. Silicon-organic hybrid (SOH) integration can overcome these limitations by combining nanophotonic silicon waveguides with organic cladding materials, thereby offering the prospect of designing optical properties by molecular engineering. In this paper, we demonstrate an SOH Mach-Zehnder modulator with unprecedented efficiency: the 1-mm-long device consumes only 0.7 fJ bit-1 to generate a 12.5 Gbit s-1 data stream with a bit-error ratio below the threshold for hard-decision forward-error correction. This power consumption represents the lowest value demonstrated for a non-resonant Mach-Zehnder modulator in any material system. It is enabled by a novel class of organic electro-optic materials that are designed for high chromophore density and enhanced molecular orientation. The device features an electro-optic coefficient of r33~180 pm V-1 and can be operated at data rates of up to 40 Gbit s-1

Unrelenting plasmons

Following a brief historic introduction to plasmons, their useful properties and early applications, we highlight some of the key advances in the field over the past decade. We then discuss new directions for the future, such as the use of 2D materials and strong coupling phenomena, which are likely to shape the field over the next ten years. For centuries, metals were employed in optical applications only as mirrors and gratings. New vistas opened up in the late 1970s and early 1980s with the discovery of surface-enhanced Raman scattering and the use of surface plasmon (SP) resonances for sensing. However, it was not until the 1990s, with the appearance of accurate and reliable nanofabrication techniques, that plasmonics blossomed1. Initially, the attention focused on the exploitation of SPs (collective electronic oscillations at the surface of metals) for sensing, subwavelength waveguiding and extraordinary optical transmission2. Since then, the scientific and technological interest in SPs has expanded. Correspondingly, as illustrated in Fig. 1, the number of publications in the field has increased in a steady exponential fashion for more than two decades, and the momentum driving plasmonics research looks set to continue (...

Intrinsic Plasmon-Phonon Interactions in Highly Doped Graphene: A Near-Field Imaging Study.

Author's accepted versionFinal version available from ACS via the DOI in this recordAs a two-dimensional semimetal, graphene offers clear advantages for plasmonic applications over conventional metals, such as stronger optical field confinement, in situ tunability, and relatively low intrinsic losses. However, the operational frequencies at which plasmons can be excited in graphene are limited by the Fermi energy EF, which in practice can be controlled electrostatically only up to a few tenths of an electronvolt. Higher Fermi energies open the door to novel plasmonic devices with unprecedented capabilities, particularly at mid-infrared and shorter-wave infrared frequencies. In addition, this grants us a better understanding of the interaction physics of intrinsic graphene phonons with graphene plasmons. Here, we present FeCl3-intercalated graphene as a new plasmonic material with high stability under environmental conditions and carrier concentrations corresponding to EF > 1 eV. Near-field imaging of this highly doped form of graphene allows us to characterize plasmons, including their corresponding lifetimes, over a broad frequency range. For bilayer graphene, in contrast to the monolayer system, a phonon-induced dipole moment results in increased plasmon damping around the intrinsic phonon frequency. Strong coupling between intrinsic graphene phonons and plasmons is found, supported by ab initio calculations of the coupling strength, which are in good agreement with the experimental data.FJGA and PA-G acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the national programs MAT2014-59096-P and FIS2014-60195-JIN, respectively. MFC and SR acknowledge support from EPSRC (Grant no. EP/J000396/1, 281 EP/K017160/1, EP/K010050/1, EPG036101/1, EP/M001024/1, EPM- 002438/1), from Royal Society International Exchanges Scheme 2012/R3 and 2013/R2 and from European Commission (FP7-ICT-2013-613024-GRASP). SD, DNB and MF acknowledge support of ONR N00014-15-1-2671. DNB is the Moore Investigator in Quantum Materials funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation’s EPiQS Initiative through Grant GBMF4533