A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10-20yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European regio

Trial and error versus errorless learning of functional skills in patients with acute stroke

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of errorless learning versus trial and error learning for teaching activities of daily living to patients with acute stroke with or without explicit memory impairments. Design: Randomized crossover. Setting: Rehabilitation hospital. Participants: 33 adult subjects following an acute stroke. Intervention: Subjects were taught to prepare a wheelchair for a transfer and to put on a sock with a sock-donner. Tasks were taught using errorless learning or trial and error learning. Explicit memory was assessed using the Neurobehavioral Cognitive Status Exam. Main Outcome Measures: Days until subject was able to demonstrate retention of the task, and success or failure at carry-over to a similar task. Results: No significant differences were found in days to retention for either functional task when taught using errorless learning or trial and error learning in subjects with or without explicit memory impairments. Carry-over was significantly better when trial and error learning was used for learning sock donning. Conclusions: When choosing the best learning method for patients undergoing rehabilitation for stroke, the nature of the task should be considered. Additional research is needed to identify the best approach for teaching activities of daily living and facilitating carry-over of learning in individuals with acute stroke

Prevalence and clinical correlates of YMDD variants during lamivudine therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B

YMDD variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) emerge in some patients with chronic hepatitis B who receive lamivudine. YMDD variants were examined in 794 patients in 4 controlled studies of 1 year's duration. The long-term effects of YMDD variants were examined in a subset of patients treated up to 4 years. YMDD variants were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment-length polymorphism assays. After 1 year, YMDD variants were detected in 81 (24%) of 335 patients. In these patients, the median serum HBV DNA concentration at 1 year was <20% of the baseline level, and serum alanine transaminase (ALT) levels and liver histologic findings had significantly improved. In patients with YMDD variants who were treated for up to 4 years, median HBV DNA and ALT levels showed improvements. Sex, baseline body mass index, and HBV DNA level were associated with emergence of YMDD variants. Patients with YMDD variants losing clinical response with a significant increase in the HBV DNA and ALT levels may require additional therapy.published_or_final_versio

Association between circulating osteocalcin and cardiometabolic risk factors following a 4-week leafy green vitamin K-rich diet

© 2020 S. Karger AG, Basel. Copyright: All rights reserved. Background: Evidence suggests that lower serum undercarboxylated osteocalcin (ucOC) may be negatively associated with cardiometabolic health. We investigated whether individuals with a suppression of ucOC following an increase in dietary vitamin K1 exhibit a relative worsening of cardiometabolic risk factors. Materials and Methods: Men (n = 20) and women (n = 10) aged 62 ± 10 years participated in a randomized, controlled, crossover study. The primary analysis involved using data obtained from participants following a high vitamin K1 diet (HK; 4-week intervention of increased leafy green vegetable intake). High and low responders were defined based on the median percent reduction (30%) in ucOC following the HK diet. Blood pressure (resting and 24 h), arterial stiffness, plasma glucose, lipid concentrations, and serum OC forms were assessed. Results: Following the HK diet, ucOC and ucOC/tOC were suppressed more (p \u3c 0.01) in high responders (41 and 29%) versus low responders (12 and 10%). The reduction in ucOC and ucOC/tOC was not associated with changes in blood pressure, arterial stiffness, plasma glucose, or lipid concentrations in the high responders (p \u3e 0.05). Discussion/Conclusion: Suppression of ucOC via consumption of leafy green vegetables has no negative effects on cardiometabolic health, perhaps, in part, because of cross-talk mechanisms

The effects of acute high-intensity interval exercise and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp on osteoglycin levels in young and middle-aged men

Osteoglycin (OGN) is a leucine-rich proteoglycan that has been implicated in the regulation of glucose in animal models. However, its relationship with glucose control in humans is unclear. We examined the effect of high-intensity interval exercise (HIIE) and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp on circulating levels of OGN as well as whether circulating OGN levels are associated with markers of glycemic control and cardio-metabolic health. Serum was analyzed for OGN (ELISA) levels from 9 middle-aged obese men (58.1 ± 2.2 years, body mass index [BMI] = 33.1 ± 1.4 kg∙m − 2, mean ± SEM) and 9 young men (27.8 ± 1.6 years, BMI = 24.4 ± 0.08 kg∙m − 2) who previously completed a study involving a euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp at rest and after HIIE (4 x 4 minutes cycling at approximately 95% peak heart rate (HRpeak), interspersed with 2 minutes of active recovery). Blood pressure, body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), and insulin sensitivity (hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp) were assessed. Serum OGN was higher in the young cohort compared with the middle-aged cohort (65.2 ± 10.1 ng/mL versus 36.5 ± 4. 5 ng/mL, p ≤ 0.05). Serum OGN was unaffected by acute HIIE but decreased after the insulin clamp compared with baseline (~ − 27 %, p = 0.01), post-exercise (~ − 35 %, p = 0.01), and pre-clamp (~ − 32 %, p = 0.02) time points, irrespective of age. At baseline, lower circulating OGN levels were associated with increased age, BMI, and fat mass, whereas higher OGN levels were related to lower fasting glucose. Higher OGN levels were associated with a higher glucose infusion rate. Exercise had a limited effect on circulating OGN. The mechanisms by which OGN affects glucose regulation should be explored in the future

Is it cheating or learning the craft of writing? Using Turnitin to help students avoid plagiarism

Plagiarism is a growing problem for universities, many of which are turning to software detection for help in detecting and dealing with it. This paper explores issues around plagiarism and reports on a study of the use of Turnitin in a new university. The purpose of the study was to inform the senior management team about the plagiarism policy and the use of Turnitin. The study found that staff and students largely understood the university’s policy and Turnitin’s place within it, and were very supportive of the use of Turnitin in originality checking. Students who had not used Turnitin were generally keen to do so. The recommendation to the senior management team, which was implemented, was that the use of Turnitin for originality checking should be made compulsory where possible - at the time of the study the use of Turnitin was at the discretion of programme directors. A further aim of the study was to contribute to the sector’s body of knowledge. Prevention of plagiarism through education is a theme identified by Badge and Scott (2009) who conclude an area lacking in research is "investigation of the impact of these tools on staff teaching practices". Although a number of recent studies have considered educational use of Turnitin they focus on individual programmes or subject areas rather than institutions as a whole and the relationship with policy

Femtojoule electro-optic modulation using a silicon-organic hybrid device

Energy-efficient electro-optic modulators are at the heart of short-reach optical interconnects, and silicon photonics is considered the leading technology for realizing such devices. However, the performance of all-silicon devices is limited by intrinsic material properties. In particular, the absence of linear electro-optic effects in silicon renders the integration of energy-efficient photonic-electronic interfaces challenging. Silicon-organic hybrid (SOH) integration can overcome these limitations by combining nanophotonic silicon waveguides with organic cladding materials, thereby offering the prospect of designing optical properties by molecular engineering. In this paper, we demonstrate an SOH Mach-Zehnder modulator with unprecedented efficiency: the 1-mm-long device consumes only 0.7 fJ bit(-1) to generate a 12.5 Gbit s(-1) data stream with a bit-error ratio below the threshold for hard-decision forward-error correction. This power consumption represents the lowest value demonstrated for a non-resonant Mach-Zehnder modulator in any material system. It is enabled by a novel class of organic electro-optic materials that are designed for high chromophore density and enhanced molecular orientation. The device features an electro-optic coefficient of r(33) approximate to 180 pm V-1 and can be operated at data rates of up to 40 Gbit s(-1)

Femtojoule electro-optic modulation using a silicon-organic hybrid device

Energy-efficient electro-optic modulators are at the heart of short-reach optical interconnects, and silicon photonics is considered the leading technology for realizing such devices. However, the performance of all-silicon devices is limited by intrinsic material properties. In particular, the absence of linear electro-optic effects in silicon renders the integration of energy-efficient photonic-electronic interfaces challenging. Silicon-organic hybrid (SOH) integration can overcome these limitations by combining nanophotonic silicon waveguides with organic cladding materials, thereby offering the prospect of designing optical properties by molecular engineering. In this paper, we demonstrate an SOH Mach-Zehnder modulator with unprecedented efficiency: the 1-mm-long device consumes only 0.7 fJ bit-1 to generate a 12.5 Gbit s-1 data stream with a bit-error ratio below the threshold for hard-decision forward-error correction. This power consumption represents the lowest value demonstrated for a non-resonant Mach-Zehnder modulator in any material system. It is enabled by a novel class of organic electro-optic materials that are designed for high chromophore density and enhanced molecular orientation. The device features an electro-optic coefficient of r33~180 pm V-1 and can be operated at data rates of up to 40 Gbit s-1

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org)