Using Cyclical Components to Improve the Forecasts of the Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables

Economic variables such as stock market indices, interest rates, and national output measures contain cyclical components. Forecasting methods excluding these cyclical components yield inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts. Accordingly, a three-stage procedure is developed to estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) with cyclical components. A Monte Carlo simulation shows the procedure estimates the parameters accurately. Subsequently, a VAR with cyclical components improves the root-mean-square error of out-of-sample forecasts by 50% for a stock market model with macroeconomic variables

Spatial variability of the Arctic Ocean's double-diffusive staircase

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 980–994, doi:10.1002/2016JC012419.The Arctic Ocean thermohaline stratification frequently exhibits a staircase structure overlying the Atlantic Water Layer that can be attributed to the diffusive form of double-diffusive convection. The staircase consists of multiple layers of O(1) m in thickness separated by sharp interfaces, across which temperature and salinity change abruptly. Through a detailed analysis of Ice-Tethered Profiler measurements from 2004 to 2013, the double-diffusive staircase structure is characterized across the entire Arctic Ocean. We demonstrate how the large-scale Arctic Ocean circulation influences the small-scale staircase properties. These staircase properties (layer thicknesses and temperature and salinity jumps across interfaces) are examined in relation to a bulk vertical density ratio spanning the staircase stratification. We show that the Lomonosov Ridge serves as an approximate boundary between regions of low density ratio (approximately 3–4) on the Eurasian side and higher density ratio (approximately 6–7) on the Canadian side. We find that the Eurasian Basin staircase is characterized by fewer, thinner layers than that in the Canadian Basin, although the margins of all basins are characterized by relatively thin layers and the absence of a well-defined staircase. A double-diffusive 4/3 flux law parametrization is used to estimate vertical heat fluxes in the Canadian Basin to be O(0.1) W m−2. It is shown that the 4/3 flux law may not be an appropriate representation of heat fluxes through the Eurasian Basin staircase. Here molecular heat fluxes are estimated to be between O(0.01) and O(0.1) W m−2. However, many uncertainties remain about the exact nature of these fluxes.National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs2017-08-0

Baroclinic, Kelvin and inertia-gravity waves in the barostrat instability experiment

International audienceThe differentially heated rotating annulus is a laboratory experiment historically designed for modelling large-scale features of the mid-latitude atmosphere. In the present study, we investigate a modified version of the classic baroclinic experiment in which a juxtaposition of convective and motionless stratified layers is created by introducing a vertical salt stratification. The thermal convective motions are suppressed in a central region at mid-depth of the rotating tank, therefore double-diffusive convection rolls can develop only in thin layers located at top and bottom, where the salt stratification is weakest. For high enough rotation rates, the baroclinic instability destabilises the flow in the top and the bottom shallow convective layers, generating cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies separated by the stable stratified layer. Thanks to this alternation of layers resembling the convective and radiative layers of stars, the planetary's atmospheric troposphere and stratosphere or turbulent layers at the sea surface above stratified waters, this new laboratory setup is of interest for both astrophysics and geophysical sciences. More specifically, it allows to study the exchange of momentum and energy between the layers, primarly by the propagation of internal gravity waves (IGW). PIV velocity maps are used to describe the wavy flow pattern at different heights. Using a co-rotating laser and camera, the wave field is well resolved and different wave types can be found: baroclinic waves, Kelvin, and Poincaré type waves. The signature of small-scale IGW can also be observed attached to the baroclinic jet. The baroclinic waves occur at the thin convectively active layer at the surface and the bottom of the tank, though decoupled they show different manifestation of nonlinear interactions. The inertial Kelvin and Poincaré waves seem to be mechanically forced. The small-scale wave trains attached to the meandering jet point to an imbalance of the large-scale flow. For the first time, the simultaneous occurrence of differentwave types is reported in detail for a differentially heated rotating annulus experiment

Challenges and Opportunities with Causal Discovery Algorithms: Application to Alzheimer’s Pathophysiology

© 2020, The Author(s). Causal Structure Discovery (CSD) is the problem of identifying causal relationships from large quantities of data through computational methods. With the limited ability of traditional association-based computational methods to discover causal relationships, CSD methodologies are gaining popularity. The goal of the study was to systematically examine whether (i) CSD methods can discover the known causal relationships from observational clinical data and (ii) to offer guidance to accurately discover known causal relationships. We used Alzheimer’s disease (AD), a complex progressive disease, as a model because the well-established evidence provides a “gold-standard” causal graph for evaluation. We evaluated two CSD methods, Fast Causal Inference (FCI) and Fast Greedy Equivalence Search (FGES) in their ability to discover this structure from data collected by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We used structural equation models (which is not designed for CSD) as control. We applied these methods under three scenarios defined by increasing amounts of background knowledge provided to the methods. The methods were evaluated by comparing the resulting causal relationships with the “gold standard” graph that was constructed from literature. Dedicated CSD methods managed to discover graphs that nearly coincided with the gold standard. For best results, CSD algorithms should be used with longitudinal data providing as much prior knowledge as possible

Intervention effects of Ganoderma lucidum spores on epileptiform discharge hippocampal neurons and expression of Neurotrophin-4 and N-Cadherin

Epilepsy can cause cerebral transient dysfunctions. Ganoderma lucidum spores (GLS), a traditional Chinese medicinal herb, has shown some antiepileptic effects in our previous studies. This was the first study of the effects of GLS on cultured primary hippocampal neurons, treated with Mg2+ free medium. This in vitro model of epileptiform discharge hippocampal neurons allowed us to investigate the anti-epileptic effects and mechanism of GLS activity. Primary hippocampal neurons from <1 day old rats were cultured and their morphologies observed under fluorescence microscope. Neurons were confirmed by immunofluorescent staining of neuron specific enolase (NSE). Sterile method for GLS generation was investigated and serial dilutions of GLS were used to test the maximum non-toxic concentration of GLS on hippocampal neurons. The optimized concentration of GLS of 0.122 mg/ml was identified and used for subsequent analysis. Using the in vitro model, hippocampal neurons were divided into 4 groups for subsequent treatment i) control, ii) model (incubated with Mg2+ free medium for 3 hours), iii) GLS group I (incubated with Mg2+ free medium containing GLS for 3 hours and replaced with normal medium and incubated for 6 hours) and iv) GLS group II (neurons incubated with Mg2+ free medium for 3 hours then replaced with a normal medium containing GLS for 6 hours). Neurotrophin-4 and N-Cadherin protein expression were detected using Western blot. The results showed that the number of normal hippocampal neurons increased and the morphologies of hippocampal neurons were well preserved after GLS treatment. Furthermore, the expression of neurotrophin-4 was significantly increased while the expression of N-Cadherin was decreased in the GLS treated group compared with the model group. This data indicates that GLS may protect hippocampal neurons by promoting neurotrophin-4 expression and inhibiting N-Cadherin expression