Spurious trend switching phenomena in financial markets

The observation of power laws in the time to extrema of volatility, volume and intertrade times, from milliseconds to years, are shown to result straightforwardly from the selection of biased statistical subsets of realizations in otherwise featureless processes such as random walks. The bias stems from the selection of price peaks that imposes a condition on the statistics of price change and of trade volumes that skew their distributions. For the intertrade times, the extrema and power laws results from the format of transaction data

Coupling of intrinsic Josephson oscillations in layered superconductors by charge fluctuations

The coupling of Josephson oscillations in layered superconductors is studied with help of a tunneling Hamiltonian formalism. The general form of the current density across the barriers between the superconducting layers is derived. The induced charge fluctuations on the superconducting layers lead to a coupling of the Josephson oscillations in different junctions. A simplified set of equations is then used to study the non-linear dynamics of the system. In particular the influence of the coupling on the current-voltage characteristics is investigated and upper limits for the coupling strength are estimated from a comparison with experiments on cuprate superconductors.Comment: To be published in proceedings of SPIE conference San Diego 199

Quantifying the behavior of stock correlations under market stress

Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios

Quantifying the digital traces of Hurricane Sandy on Flickr

Society’s increasing interactions with technology are creating extensive “digital traces” of our collective human behavior. These new data sources are fuelling the rapid development of the new field of computational social science. To investigate user attention to the Hurricane Sandy disaster in 2012, we analyze data from Flickr, a popular website for sharing personal photographs. In this case study, we find that the number of photos taken and subsequently uploaded to Flickr with titles, descriptions or tags related to Hurricane Sandy bears a striking correlation to the atmospheric pressure in the US state New Jersey during this period. Appropriate leverage of such information could be useful to policy makers and others charged with emergency crisis management

Information sharing promotes prosocial behaviour

More often than not, bad decisions are bad regardless of where and when they are made. Information sharing might thus be utilized to mitigate them. Here we show that sharing information about strategy choice between players residing on two different networks reinforces the evolution of cooperation. In evolutionary games, the strategy reflects the action of each individual that warrants the highest utility in a competitive setting. We therefore assume that identical strategies on the two networks reinforce themselves by lessening their propensity to change. Besides network reciprocity working in favour of cooperation on each individual network, we observe the spontaneous emergence of correlated behaviour between the two networks, which further deters defection. If information is shared not just between individuals but also between groups, the positive effect is even stronger, and this despite the fact that information sharing is implemented without any assumptions with regard to content

Coupling between phonons and intrinsic Josephson oscillations in cuprate superconductors

The recently reported subgap structures observed in the current-voltage characteristic of intrinsic Josephson junctions in the high-T_c superconductors Tl_2Ba_2Ca_2Cu_3O_{10+\delta} and Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_{8+\delta} are explained by the coupling between c-axis phonons and Josephson oscillations. A model is developed where c-axis lattice vibrations between adjacent superconducting multilayers are excited by the Josephson oscillations in a resistive junction. The voltages of the lowest structures correspond well to the frequencies of longitudinal c-axis phonons with large oscillator strength in the two materials, providing a new measurement technique for this quantity.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, revtex, aps, epsf, psfig. submitted to Physical Review Letters, second version improved in detai

Linear Programming in the Semi-streaming Model with Application to the Maximum Matching Problem

In this paper, we study linear programming based approaches to the maximum matching problem in the semi-streaming model. The semi-streaming model has gained attention as a model for processing massive graphs as the importance of such graphs has increased. This is a model where edges are streamed-in in an adversarial order and we are allowed a space proportional to the number of vertices in a graph. In recent years, there has been several new results in this semi-streaming model. However broad techniques such as linear programming have not been adapted to this model. We present several techniques to adapt and optimize linear programming based approaches in the semi-streaming model with an application to the maximum matching problem. As a consequence, we improve (almost) all previous results on this problem, and also prove new results on interesting variants

Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model

The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF model does not show sound long memory. We propose a modified version of the MF model by including a new ingredient, that is, long memory in the aggressiveness (quantified by the relative prices) of incoming orders, which is an important stylized fact identified by analyzing the order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks. Long memory emerges in the volatility synthesized from the modified MF model with the DFA scaling exponent close to 0.76, and the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of prices are also produced at the same time. We also find that the long memory of order signs has no impact on the long memory property of volatility, and the memory effect of order aggressiveness has little impact on the diffusiveness of stock prices.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures and 1 tabl

An experimental testbed for NEAT to demonstrate micro-pixel accuracy

NEAT is an astrometric mission proposed to ESA with the objectives of detecting Earth-like exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby solar-type stars. In NEAT, one fundamental aspect is the capability to measure stellar centroids at the precision of 5e-6 pixel. Current state-of-the-art methods for centroid estimation have reached a precision of about 4e-5 pixel at Nyquist sampling. Simulations showed that a precision of 2 micro-pixels can be reached, if intra and inter pixel quantum efficiency variations are calibrated and corrected for by a metrology system. The European part of the NEAT consortium is designing and building a testbed in vacuum in order to achieve 5e-6 pixel precision for the centroid estimation. The goal is to provide a proof of concept for the precision requirement of the NEAT spacecraft. In this paper we give the basic relations and trade-offs that come into play for the design of a centroid testbed and its metrology system. We detail the different conditions necessary to reach the targeted precision, present the characteristics of our current design and describe the present status of the demonstration.Comment: SPIE proceeding