Principios e interés de los test Bondad de Ajuste (GOF) para los modelos de captura–recaptura multiestado

Optimal goodness–of–fit procedures for multistate models are new. Drawing a parallel with the corresponding single–state procedures, we present their singularities and show how the overall test can be decomposed into interpretable components. All theoretical developments are illustrated with an application to the now classical study of movements of Canada geese between wintering sites. Through this application, we exemplify how the interpretable components give insight into the data, leading eventually to the choice of an appropriate general model but also sometimes to the invalidation of the multistate models as a whole. The method for computing a corrective overdispersion factor is then mentioned. We also take the opportunity to try to demystify some statistical notions like that of Minimal Sufficient Statistics by introducing them intuitively. We conclude that these tests should be considered an important part of the analysis itself, contributing in ways that the parametric modelling cannot always do to the understanding of the data.Los procedimientos óptimos de bondad de ajuste, aplicados a los modelos multiestado, son nuevos. Trazando un paralelismo con los correspondientes procesos de uniestado, presentamos sus articularidades y mostramos como el test general puede descomponerse en componentes susceptibles de ser interpretados. Todos los desarrollos teóricos están ilustrados con una aplicación del ya clásico estudio de los desplazamientos de la barnacla canadiense entre sus lugares de invernada. Mediante esta aplicación, presentamos un ejemplo de cómo los componentes susceptibles de ser interpretados nos proporcionan una idea de los datos que nos pueden llevar a la elección de un modelo general apropiado, pero también a veces a la invalidación de los modelos de multiestados en su conjunto. Se menciona entonces el método para calcular un factor de corrección de la sobredispersión. Aprovechamos esta ocasión para intentar también desmitificar algunas nociones estadísticas, como las Estadísticas Suficientes Mínimas, introduciéndolas intuitivamente. La conclusión es que estas pruebas deberían considerarse una parte importante del propio análisis, contribuyendo a la comprensión de los datos, de un modo que el modelaje paramétrico no siempre consigue

Performance regression testing of concurrent classes

Developers of thread-safe classes struggle with two oppos-ing goals. The class must be correct, which requires syn-chronizing concurrent accesses, and the class should pro-vide reasonable performance, which is difficult to realize in the presence of unnecessary synchronization. Validating the performance of a thread-safe class is challenging because it requires diverse workloads that use the class, because ex-isting performance analysis techniques focus on individual bottleneck methods, and because reliably measuring the per-formance of concurrent executions is difficult. This paper presents SpeedGun, an automatic performance regression testing technique for thread-safe classes. The key idea is to generate multi-threaded performance tests and to com-pare two versions of a class with each other. The analysis notifies developers when changing a thread-safe class signif-icantly influences the performance of clients of this class. An evaluation with 113 pairs of classes from popular Java projects shows that the analysis effectively identifies 13 per-formance differences, including performance regressions that the respective developers were not aware of

DESIGNING END USE COMPONENTS FOR ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING Exploring experiences, knowledge and information requirements

The primary aim of this study was to develop an understanding of the experience, the current knowledge regarding the design of end-user components for series production in additive manufacturing (AM) and the information needs of designers involved in designing end-user components for AM. To achieve this, the survey intended to uncover the following aspects of the topic: 1. If and how frequently AM technologies are used by designers for series production of end-user components 2. To what extend designers have had experience of designing end-user components for AM 3. Which aspects are important when designing end-user components for additive 4. Why designers have or not have designed end-user components for series production in AM 5. How designers have learned how to design for AM and which resources they have used 6. What designers would like to know about Design for AM 7. How they prefer this information to be conveye

A framework for mapping design for additive manufacturing knowledge for industrial and product design

© 2018, © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Design for Additive Manufacturing (DfAM) is a growing field of enquiry. Over the past few years, the scientific community has begun to explore this topic to provide a basis for supporting professional design practice. However, current knowledge is still largely fragmented, difficult to access and inconsistent in language and presentation. This paper seeks to collate and organise this dispersed but growing body of knowledge, using a single and coherent conceptual framework. The framework is based on a generic design process model and consists of five parts: Conceptual design, Embodiment design, Detail design and Process planning and Process selection. 81 articles on DfAM are mapped onto the framework to provide, for the first time, a clear summary of the state of the art across the whole design process. Nine directions for the future of DfAM research are then proposed

Investigation of design for additive manufacturing in professional design practice

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Additive Manufacturing (AM) technologies are widely adopted in design practice for prototyping. However, the extent to which practitioners are knowledgeable and experienced in designing components for series production using AM remains poorly understood. This study presents the results of an online survey aimed at uncovering this emerging design activity, with additional evidence provided by semi-structured interviews with 18 designers. One hundred ten practising designers responded. The majority of the respondents remain sceptical about the potential for AM as a process for series production, citing cost and technical capabilities as key barriers. Only 23 reported experience in designing components for series production using AM, with the majority of these designing parts to be produced from plastic. The survey revealed that these designers have developed their own ‘design rules’ based primarily on personal experience. These rules, however, tended to focus on ensuring ‘printability’ and did not provide support for taking advantage of the unique capabilities of AM processes. The designers tended to treat AM processes as a uniform set of production processes, and so the design rules they used were generic and not directed to the capabilities of specific AM processes

M–SURGE: new software specifically designed for multistate capture–recapture models

M–SURGE, al igual que su compañero, el programa U–CARE, se ha escrito con el propósito específico de manejar modelos multiestado de captura–recaptura, lo que a su vez permite mitigar las dificultades inherentes a los mismos (especificación de los modelos, calidad de la convergencia, flexibilidad de parametrización, evaluación del ajuste). En su terreno, M–SURGE abarca una gama de modelos más extensa que un programa general, como el MARK (White & Burnham, 1999), al tiempo que resulta más accesible para el usuario que el MS–SURVIV (Hines, 1994). De entre las principales características del M–SURGE, cabe destacar una amplia gama de modelos y varias parametrizaciones: (1) M–SURGE abarca los modelos condicionales con probabilidad de recaptura según el estado actual (modelos tipo Arnason–Schwarz), y según el estado actual y previo (modelos tipo Jolly–movement). En ambos casos, es posible examinar los efectos dependientes de la edad y/o del tiempo, así como grupos múltiples. (2) Las probabilidades combinadas de supervivencia–transición pueden representarse como tales, o descomponerse en probabilidades de transición y supervivencia. (3) Por lo que respecta a las probabilidades de transición con el mismo estado de partida, el usuario puede elegir libremente la probabilidad que deberá calcularse por sustracción. Además de ser un programa muy accesible para el usuario, también debe subrayarse la facilidad con que permite construir modelos constreñidos utilizando un lenguaje interpretado denominado GEMACO. En este estudio desarrollamos y presentamos varios tipos de modelos multiestado.M–SURGE (along with its companion program U–CARE) has been written specifically to handle multistate capture–recapture models and to alleviate their inherent difficulties (model specification, quality of convergence, flexibility of parameterization, assessment of fit). In its domain, M–SURGE covers a broader range of models than a general program like MARK (White & Burnham, 1999), while being more user–friendly than MS–SURVIV (Hines, 1994). Among the main features of M–SURGE is a wide class of models and a variety of parameterizations: (1) M–SURGE covers conditional models with probability of recapture depending on the current state (Arnason–Schwarz type models) as well as on the current and previous state (Jolly–movement type models). In both cases, age and/or time–dependence and multiple groups can be considered. (2) Combined survival–transition probabilities can be represented as such or decomposed into transition and survival probabilities. (3) Among the transition probabilities with the same state of departure, the one to be computed by subtraction can be freely picked by the user. User–friendliness is enhanced by the easiness with which constrained models are built, using an interpreted language called GEMACO. Examples of various types of multistate models are developed and presented

Modeling Trap-Awareness and Related Phenomena in Capture-Recapture Studies

Trap-awareness and related phenomena whereby successive capture events are not independent is a feature of the majority of capture-recapture studies. This phenomenon was up to now difficult to incorporate in open population models and most authors have chosen to neglect it although this may have damaging consequences. Focusing on the situation where animals exhibit a trap response at the occasion immediately following one where they have been trapped but revert to their original naïve state if they are missed once, we show that trap-dependence is more naturally viewed as a state transition and is amenable to the current models of capture-recapture. This approach has the potential to accommodate lasting or progressively waning trap effects

Monitoring the Bi-Directional Relativistic Jets of the Radio Galaxy 1946+708

We report on a multi-frequency, multi-epoch campaign of Very Long Baseline Interferometry observations of the radio galaxy 1946+708 using the VLBA and a Global VLBI array. From these high-resolution observations we deduce the kinematic age of the radio source to be $\sim$4000 years, comparable with the ages of other Compact Symmetric Objects (CSOs). Ejections of pairs of jet components appears to take place on time scales of 10 years and these components in the jet travel outward at intrinsic velocities between 0.6 and 0.9 c. From the constraint that jet components cannot have intrinsic velocities faster than light, we derive H_0 > 57 km s^-1 Mpc^-1 from the fastest pair of components launched from the core. We provide strong evidence for the ejection of a new pair of components in ~1997. From the trajectories of the jet components we deduce that the jet is most likely to be helically confined, rather than purely ballistic in nature.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, accepted to Ap