The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

DSGE Modelling for the UK Economy 1974-2017

We build four different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for a small open economy reflecting both neoclassical and Keynesian specifications. A DSGE model with full price and wage flexibility is initially constructed and then modified through nominal wage and price rigidities. The ability of the models to replicate important features of the business cycle activity in the UK is explored through statistical and econometric analysis. Evidence suggests that a monetary shock under the Taylor model with price stickiness can replicate a significant portion of the business cycle activity in the UK economy