Forecasting intermittent demand

Methods for forecasting intermittent demand are compared using a large data-set from the UK Royal Air Force (RAF). Several important results are found. First, we show that the traditional per period forecast error measures are not appropriate for intermittent demand, even though they are consistently used in the literature. Second, by comparing target service levels to achieved service levels when inventory decisions are based on demand forecasts, we show that Croston's method (and a variant) and Bootstrapping clearly outperform Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. Third, we show that the performance of Croston and Bootstrapping can be significantly improved by taking into account that each lead time starts with a demand

How else can we detect Fast Radio Bursts?

We discuss possible electromagnetic signals accompanying Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) that are expected in the scenario where FRBs originate in neutron star magnetospheres. For models involving Crab-like giant pulses, no appreciable contemporaneous emission is expected at other wavelengths. Magnetar giant flares, driven by the reconfiguration of the magnetosphere, however, can produce both contemporaneous bursts at other wavelengths as well as afterglow-like emission. We conclude that the best chances are: (i) prompt short GRB-like emission; (ii) a contemporaneous optical flash that can reach naked eye peak luminosity (but only for a few milliseconds); (iii) a high energy afterglow emission. Case (i) could be tested by coordinated radio and high-energy experiments. Case (ii) could be seen in a coordinated radio-optical surveys, \eg\ by the Palomar Transient Factory in a 60-second frame as a transient object of $m=15-20$ magnitude with an expected optical detection rate of about 0.1~hr$^{-1}$, an order of magnitude higher than in radio. Shallow, but large-area sky surveys such as ASAS-SN and EVRYSCOPE could also detect prompt optical flashes from the more powerful Lorimer-burst clones. The best constraints on the optical-to-radio power for this kind of emission could be provided by future observations with facilities like LSST. Case (iii) might be seen in relatively rare cases that the relativistically ejected magnetic blob is moving along the line of sight

An Accelerated Multiboson Algorithm for Coulomb Gases with Dynamical Dielectric Effects

A recent reformulation [1] of the problem of Coulomb gases in the presence of a dynamical dielectric medium showed that finite temperature simulations of such systems can be accomplished on the basis of completely local Hamiltonians on a spatial lattice by including additional bosonic fields. For large systems, the Monte Carlo algorithm proposed in Ref. [1] becomes inefficient due to a low acceptance rate for particle moves in a fixed background multiboson field. We show here how this problem can be circumvented by use of a coupled particle-multiboson update procedure that improves acceptance rates on large lattices by orders of magnitude. The method is tested on a one-component plasma with neutral dielectric particles for a variety of system sizes.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, fixed typos, added reference

Flares from Galactic centre pulsars: a new class of X-ray transients?

Despite intensive searches, the only pulsar within 0.1 pc of the central black hole in our Galaxy, Sgr A*, is a radio-loud magnetar. Since magnetars are rare among the Galactic neutron star population, and a large number of massive stars are already known in this region, the Galactic centre (GC) should harbor a large number of neutron stars. Population syntheses suggest several thousand neutron stars may be present in the GC. Many of these could be highly energetic millisecond pulsars which are also proposed to be responsible for the GC gamma-ray excess. We propose that the presence of a neutron star within 0.03~pc from Sgr~A* can be revealed by the shock interactions with the disk around the central black hole. As we demonstrate, these interactions result in observable transient non-thermal X-ray and gamma-ray emission over timescales of months, provided that the spin down luminosity of the neutron star is L_{sd}~10^{35} erg/s. Current limits on the population of normal and millisecond pulsars in the GC region suggest that a number of such pulsars are present with such luminosities.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Masses and Decay Constants of Heavy-Light Mesons Using the Multistate Smearing Technique

We present results for f_B and masses of low-lying heavy-light mesons. Calculations were performed in the quenched approximation using multistate smearing functions generated from a spinless relativistic quark model Hamiltonian. Beta values range from 5.7 to 6.3, and light quark masses corresponding to pion masses as low as 300 MeV are computed at each value. We use the 1P--1S charmonium splitting to set the overall scale.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures, and 5 tables as a single 193K compressed and uuencoded Postscript file, FERMILAB--CONF--93/376-

A New Method for Estimating Dark Matter Halo Masses using Globular Cluster Systems

All galaxies are thought to reside within large halos of dark matter, whose properties can only be determined from indirect observations. The formation and assembly of galaxies is determined from the interplay between these dark matter halos and the baryonic matter they host. Although statistical relations can be used to approximate how massive a galaxy's halo is, very few individual galaxies have direct measurements of their halo masses. We present a method to directly estimate the total mass of a galaxy's dark halo using its system of globular clusters. The link between globular cluster systems and halo masses is independent of a galaxy's type and environment, in contrast to the relationship between galaxy halo and stellar masses. This trend is expected in models where globular clusters form in early, rare density peaks in the cold dark matter density field and the epoch of reionisation was roughly coeval throughout the Universe. We illustrate the general utility of this relation by demonstrating that a galaxy's supermassive black hole mass and global X-ray luminosity are directly proportional to their host dark halo masses, as inferred from our new method.Comment: 6 pages, 4 colour figures. Accepted by MNRAS Letters. Data catalogue available from the first autho