Sensitivity analysis for solar plates

Economic evaluation methods and analyses of emerging photovoltaic (PV) technology since 1976 was prepared. This type of analysis was applied to the silicon research portion of the PV Program in order to determine the importance of this research effort in relationship to the successful development of commercial PV systems. All four generic types of PV that use silicon were addressed: crystal ingots grown either by the Czochralski method or an ingot casting method; ribbons pulled directly from molten silicon; an amorphous silicon thin film; and use of high concentration lenses. Three technologies were analyzed: the Union Carbide fluidized bed reactor process, the Hemlock process, and the Union Carbide Komatsu process. The major components of each process were assessed in terms of the costs of capital equipment, labor, materials, and utilities. These assessments were encoded as the probabilities assigned by experts for achieving various cost values or production rates

SAMICS: Input data preparation

The Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards (SAMICS) provide standard formats, data, assumptions, and procedures for estimating the price that a manufacturer would have to charge for the product of a specified manufacturing process sequence. A line-by-line explanation is given of those standard formats which describe the economically important characteristics of the manufacturing processes and the technological structure of the companies and the industry. This revision provides an updated presentation of Format A Process Description, consistent with the October 1978 version of that form. A checklist of items which should be entered on Format A as direct expenses is included

Economic implications of current systems

The primary goals of this study are to estimate the value of R&D to photovoltaic (PV) metallization systems cost, and to provide a method for selecting an optimal metallization method for any given PV system. The value-added cost and relative electrical performance of 25 state-of-the-art (SOA) and advanced metallization system techniques are compared

Flat-plate module efficiency versus cost tradeoffs

The Five Year Research Plan energy cost methodology and in depth analyses based on the extensive data that are relevant to PV systems are used to facilitate the accomplishment of the $0.15/kWh energy cost goal. An equation is given for the five year energy cost methodology. The allocation guidelines are designed to be consistent with flat solar array (FSA) milestones for module cost, module efficiency, and the programmatic goal for energy cost. They are research targets that appear to be achievable, given prior accomplishments and planned activities in the areas of low cost silicon purification, low cost sheet material, high efficiency cell processing, low cost, long life encapsulants, and automated fabrication method. Extensive sensitivity analysis work has been performed that shows that these guidelines represent an efficient way to meet the intent of the DOE program

Automation of the longwall mining system

Cost effective, safe, and technologically sound applications of automation technology to underground coal mining were identified. The longwall analysis commenced with a general search for government and industry experience of mining automation technology. A brief industry survey was conducted to identify longwall operational, safety, and design problems. The prime automation candidates resulting from the industry experience and survey were: (1) the shearer operation, (2) shield and conveyor pan line advance, (3) a management information system to allow improved mine logistics support, and (4) component fault isolation and diagnostics to reduce untimely maintenance delays. A system network analysis indicated that a 40% improvement in productivity was feasible if system delays associated with all of the above four areas were removed. A technology assessment and conceptual system design of each of the four automation candidate areas showed that state of the art digital computer, servomechanism, and actuator technologies could be applied to automate the longwall system

Extended Kramers-Moyal analysis applied to optical trapping

The Kramers-Moyal analysis is a well established approach to analyze stochastic time series from complex systems. If the sampling interval of a measured time series is too low, systematic errors occur in the analysis results. These errors are labeled as finite time effects in the literature. In the present article, we present some new insights about these effects and discuss the limitations of a previously published method to estimate Kramers-Moyal coefficients at the presence of finite time effects. To increase the reliability of this method and to avoid misinterpretations, we extend it by the computation of error estimates for estimated parameters using a Monte Carlo error propagation technique. Finally, the extended method is applied to a data set of an optical trapping experiment yielding estimations of the forces acting on a Brownian particle trapped by optical tweezers. We find an increased Markov-Einstein time scale of the order of the relaxation time of the process which can be traced back to memory effects caused by the interaction of the particle and the fluid. Above the Markov-Einstein time scale, the process can be very well described by the classical overdamped Markov model for Brownian motion.Comment: 14 pages, 18 figure

Drug-Induced Immune Cytopenias (13-Nov-2004)

Abstract Drugs can induce thrombocytopenia by several mechanisms, including marrow suppression and destruction of platelets in the peripheral blood by non-immune and immune mechanisms. We will review here current understanding of the immune mechanisms by which drugs promote immune-mediated platelet destruction resulting in thrombocytopenia. Introduction Immune cytopenia is a relatively common and poorly understood side effect of many drugs. Affected target cells include erythrocytes, leukocytes, platelets and, probably, hematopoietic precursor cells in the marrow. For unknown reasons, platelets are affected much more often than the other cell types. We will here consider drug-induced immune thrombocytopenia (DITP) as a model for drug-induced blood dyscrasias having an immunologic pathogenesis. Drug-induced antibodies cause platelet destruction by a number of different mechanism

A TV-Gaussian prior for infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems and its numerical implementations

Many scientific and engineering problems require to perform Bayesian inferences in function spaces, in which the unknowns are of infinite dimension. In such problems, choosing an appropriate prior distribution is an important task. In particular we consider problems where the function to infer is subject to sharp jumps which render the commonly used Gaussian measures unsuitable. On the other hand, the so-called total variation (TV) prior can only be defined in a finite dimensional setting, and does not lead to a well-defined posterior measure in function spaces. In this work we present a TV-Gaussian (TG) prior to address such problems, where the TV term is used to detect sharp jumps of the function, and the Gaussian distribution is used as a reference measure so that it results in a well-defined posterior measure in the function space. We also present an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to draw samples from the posterior distribution of the TG prior. With numerical examples we demonstrate the performance of the TG prior and the efficiency of the proposed MCMC algorithm