Overview of Central Government Risks and Liabilities, Autumn 2021

Central government liabilities have been increasing for many years, not only in terms of their nominal value but also in relation to the size of the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has further intensified this long-term trend. In 2008, just before the start of the financial crisis, central government debt totalled EUR 54 billion, representing approximately 28 per cent of GDP. At the end of 2020, central government debt amounted to about EUR 125 billion, nearly 53 per cent of GDP. In other words, the amount of debt in euros has more than doubled in just over a decade, and the debt ratio has almost doubled. Central government contingent liabilities have also shown strong growth over a long period. At the beginning of last decade, the government's guarantee liabilities totalled about EUR 23 billion, or about 12 per cent of GDP. At the end of 2020, liabilities amounted to EUR 62 billion, bringing the liabilities-to-GDP ratio to over 26 per cent. Significant growth in liabilities over a long period, combined with moderate long-term growth prospects, raises concerns about the central government's risk-bearing capacity. In the coming years, it would be important to strengthen the sustainability of general government finances to ensure Finland is prepared to face a potential negative economic shock in the future

Overview of central government risks and liabilities : Autumn 2022

Central government liabilities have been on a rising trend for many years. They have increased not only in terms of nominal value but also in relation to the size of the economy. The crises of the past few years have intensified this long-term trend. Just before the start of the financial crisis in 2008, central government debt totalled EUR 54 billion, representing 28 per cent of GDP. At the end of 2021, central government debt amounted to about EUR 129 billion, which is over 51 per cent of GDP. Central government contingent liabilities have also shown strong growth over a long period. At the beginning of the last decade, the government’s guarantee and collateral liabilities totalled about EUR 23 billion, or about 12 per cent of GDP. At the end of 2021, liabilities amounted to EUR 64 billion, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio to over 25 per cent. Significant growth in liabilities over a long period, combined with moderate long-term growth prospects, have weakened the central government’s risk-bearing capacity. Moving forward, it would be important to strengthen the sustainability of general government finances to ensure Finland is prepared to face new negative economic shocks in the future

Katsaus valtion taloudellisiin vastuisiin ja riskeihin : Syksy 2022

Valtion vastuut ovat olleet pitkään kasvu-uralla. Ne ovat kasvaneet paitsi nimellisarvoisesti niin myös suhteessa talouden kokoon. Viime vuosien kriisit ovat osaltaan voimistaneet tätä pidemmän aikavälin kehitystä. Valtionvelka oli finanssikriisin kynnyksellä vuonna 2008 54 miljardia euroa, mikä oli 28 prosenttia suhteessa kokonaistuotantoon. Vuoden 2021 lopussa velan määrä oli jo noin 129 miljardia euroa ja yli 51 prosenttia suhteessa bruttokansantuotteeseen (bkt). Myös valtion ehdolliset vastuut ovat olleet pitkään voimakkaassa kasvussa. Viime vuosikymmenen alussa valtion takaus- ja takuuvastuut olivat noin 23 miljardia euroa eli noin 12 prosenttia suhteessa bkt:hen. Vuoden 2021 lopussa vastuut olivat jo 64 miljardia euroa, mikä oli yli 25 prosenttia suhteessa kokonaistuotantoon. Vastuiden voimakas ja pitkään jatkunut kasvu yhdistettynä maltillisiin pidemmän aikavälin kasvunäkymiin ovat heikentäneet valtion riskinkantokykyä. Jatkossa olisikin tärkeä vahvistaa julkisen talouden kestävyyttä, jotta Suomella olisi valmiudet kohdata uusi negatiivinen talouden sokki tulevaisuudessa

Inclusive J/psi production at mid-rapidity in pp collisions at root s=5.02 TeV

Inclusive J/psi production is studied in minimum-bias proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of root s = 5.02 TeV by ALICE at the CERN LHC. The measurement is performed at mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar and are extracted and compared with results obtained at other collision energies.Peer reviewe

Measurement of nuclear effects on ψ(2S) production in p-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√ = 8.16 TeV

Inclusive psi(2S) production is measured in p-Pb collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon pair root s(NN) = 8.16 TeV, using the ALICE detector at the CERN LHC. The production of psi(2S) is studied at forward (2.03<y(cms)Peer reviewe

Constraining the Chiral Magnetic Effect with charge-dependent azimuthal correlations in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 and 5.02 TeV

Systematic studies of charge-dependent two- and three-particle correlations in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 and 5.02 TeV used to probe the Chiral Magnetic Effect (CME) are presented. These measurements are performed for charged particles in the pseudorapidity (eta) and transverse momentum (p(T)) ranges |eta| and gamma(1, - 3) = . The results are used to estimate the contribution of background effects, associated with local charge conservation coupled to anisotropic flow modulations, to measurements of the CME. A blast-wave parametrisation that incorporates local charge conservation tuned to reproduce the centrality dependent background effects is not able to fully describe the measured gamma(1,1). Finally, the charge and centrality dependence of mixed-harmonics three-particle correlations, of the form gamma(1, 2) = , which are insensitive to the CME signal, verify again that background contributions dominate the measurement of gamma(1,1).Peer reviewe

First measurement of the vertical bar t vertical bar-dependence of coherent J/psi photonuclear production

The first measurement of the cross section for coherent J/Psi photoproduction as a function of vertical bar t vertical bar, the square of the momentum transferred between the incoming and outgoing target nucleus, is presented. The data were measured with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pbcollisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV with the J/Psi produced in the central rapidity region vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.8, which corresponds to the small Bjorken-xrange (0.3 - 1.4) x 10(-3). The measured vertical bar t vertical bar-dependence is not described by computations based only on the Pb nuclear form factor, while the photonuclear cross section is better reproduced by models including shadowing according to the leading-twist approximation, or gluon-saturation effects from the impact-parameter dependent Balitsky-Kovchegov equation. These new results are therefore a valid tool to constrain the relevant model parameters and to investigate the transverse gluonic structure at very low Bjorken- x. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Measurements of mixed harmonic cumulants in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV

Correlations between moments of different flow coefficients are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV recorded with the ALICE detector. These new measurements are based on multiparticle mixed harmonic cumulants calculated using charged particles in the pseudorapidity region vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.8 with the transverse momentum range 0.2 < p(T) < 5.0 GeV/c. The centrality dependence of correlations between two flow coefficients as well as the correlations between three flow coefficients, both in terms of their second moments, are shown. In addition, a collection of mixed harmonic cumulants involving higher moments of v(2) and v(3) is measured for the first time, where the characteristic signature of negative, positive and negative signs of four-, six- and eight-particle cumulants are observed, respectively. The measurements are compared to the hydrodynamic calculations using iEBE-VISHNU with AMPT and TRENTo initial conditions. It is shown that the measurements carried out using the LHC Run 2 data in 2015 have the precision to explore the details of initial-state fluctuations and probe the nonlinear hydrodynamic response of v(2) and v(3) to their corresponding initial anisotropy coefficients epsilon(2) and epsilon(3). These new studies on correlations between three flow coefficients as well as correlations between higher moments of two different flow coefficients will pave the way to tighten constraints on initial-state models and help to extract precise information on the dynamic evolution of the hot and dense matter created in heavy-ion collisions at the LHC. (C) 2021 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe