The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050

The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002–2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90 000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65 000 of which will occur after 2001

Role of advanced technology in the detection of sight-threatening eye disease in a UK community setting.

Background/aims: To determine the performance of combinations of structural and functional screening tests in detecting sight-threatening eye disease in a cohort of elderly subjects recruited from primary care. Methods: 505 subjects aged ≥60 years underwent frequency doubling technology (FDT) perimetry, iVue optical coherence tomography (iWellness and peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) scans) and intraocular pressure with the Ocular Response Analyzer, all performed by an ophthalmic technician. The reference standard was a full ophthalmic examination by an experienced clinician who was masked to the index test results. Subjects were classified as presence or absence of sight-threatening eye disease (clinically significant cataract, primary open-angle glaucoma, intermediate or advanced age-related macular degeneration and significant diabetic retinopathy). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the association between abnormal screening test results and the presence of sight-threatening eye disease. Results: 171 subjects (33.8%) had one or more sight-threatening eye diseases. The multivariate analysis found significant associations with any of the target conditions for visual acuity of <6/12, an abnormal FDT and peripapillary RNFL thickness outside the 99% normal limit. The sensitivity of this optimised screening panel was 61.3% (95% CI 53.5 to 68.7), with a specificity of 78.8% (95% CI 74.0 to 83.1), a positive predictive value of 59.5% (95% CI 53.7 to 65.2) and an overall diagnostic accuracy of 72.9% (95% CI 68.8 to 76.8). Conclusions: A subset of screening tests may provide an accurate and efficient means of population screening for significant eye disease in the elderly. This study provides useful preliminary data to inform the development of further larger, multicentre screening studies to validate this screening panel

Electrocardiographic safety evaluation of dihydroartemisinin piperaquine in the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria.

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) could become a leading fixed combination malaria treatment worldwide. Although there is accumulating evidence of efficacy and safety from clinical trials, data on cardiotoxicity are limited. In two randomized controlled trials in Thailand, 56 patients had ECGs performed before treatment, 4 hours after the first dose, and 4 hours after the last dose. The mean (95% CI) changes in QTc interval (Bazett's correction) were 2 (-6 to 9) ms and 14 (7 to 21) ms, respectively. These small changes on the third day of treatment are similar to those observed elsewhere in the convalescent phase following antimalarial treatment with drugs known to have no cardiac effects and are therefore likely to result from recovery from acute malaria and not the treatment given. At therapeutic doses, DP does not have clinically significant effects on the electrocardiogram

Comparative Carcinogenicity for Mouse-Skin of Smoke Condensates Prepared from Cigarettes Made from the Same Tobacco Cured by Two Processes

Bright tobacco grown in Mexico was either flue-cured and redried (FC) or air-cured and bulk-fermented (AC). Both FC and AC were made into cigarettes standardized for draw resistance. FC and AC cigarettes were smoked under similar conditions in a smoking machine (one 2-second 25 ml. puff per minute down to a 20 mm. butt length). Condensates were kept at 0-4° C. until applied to the skin of mice

Cancer and ageing in mice and men.

In an experiment involving 950 mice with a normal lifespan of 2-3 years, in laboratory conditions, regular benzpyrene application to the skin was started at 10, 25, 40 or 55 weeks of age. The incidence rate of malignant epithelial tumours among the survivors in each group increased steeply with time. This increase was associated directly with duration of exposure but, given duration, was independent of age at the start of exposure, as were the growth rates of already established tumours. In our experiment, although age per se was irrelevant, the cancer incidence rate increased approximately as a power of the duration of exposure to benzpyrene. This shows that the observed approximate power-law increase of most human adult cancer incidence rates with age could exist merely because age equals duration of exposure to background and spontaneous carcinogenic stimuli. Thus, no intrinsic effects of ageing (such as failing immunological surveillance or age related hormonal changes) whatever need to postulated to explain the vast increases in old age of the incidence rates of such human cancers. This result can greatly simplify speculation about mechanisms of carcinogenesis

Genital warts and cervical neoplasia: an epidemiological study.

Cervical carcinoma and cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) are likely to be associated with all sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). To help discover which (if any) of the recognised STDs might actually cause these conditions, a key question is whether one particular such association is much stronger than the others. The present study is therefore only of women newly attending an STD clinic, and compares the prevalences of cytological abnormalities of the cervix among 415 women attending with genital warts, 135 with genital herpes, and 458 with trichomoniasis or gonorrhoea. Significantly more genital wart patients (8.1%) than trichomoniasis or gonorrhoea patients (1.9%) showed dyskaryotic changes (adjusted relative risk (RR) = 5.8 with 95% limits 2.5-13.5) at, or a few months before, first attendance, while no excess whatever was seen in women with genital herpes. Moreover, half the women had a subsequent smear (at an average of 3-4 years after first attendance) and, although the diagnosis at first attendance was not related to the onset rate of dyskaryotic changes observed in these subsequent smears, it was related to the onset rate of grade III cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN III), which was found in 7 previous genital wart patients, in 2 previous trichomonas patients, but in 0 previous genital herpes patients. Thus, our findings suggest that herpes is not directly relevant to dyskaryotic change, but that one or more of the human papilloma viruses that cause genital warts may be