Modelling the evolution of distributions : an application to major league baseball

We develop Bayesian techniques for modelling the evolution of entire distributions over time and apply them to the distribution of team performance in Major League baseball for the period 1901-2000. Such models offer insight into many key issues (e.g. competitive balance) in a way that regression-based models cannot. The models involve discretizing the distribution and then modelling the evolution of the bins over time through transition probability matrices. We allow for these matrices to vary over time and across teams. We find that, with one exception, the transition probability matrices (and, hence, competitive balance) have been remarkably constant across time and over teams. The one exception is the Yankees, who have outperformed all other teams

Structure and lattice dynamics of the wide band gap semiconductors MgSiN2_{2} and MgGeN2_{2}

We have determined the structural and lattice dynamical properties of the orthorhombic, wide band gap semiconductors MgSiN$_{2}$ and MgGeN$_{2}$ using density functional theory. In addition, we present structural properties and Raman spectra of a MgSiN$_{2}$ powder. The structural properties and lattice dynamics of the orthorhombic systems are compared to wurtzite AlN. We find clear differences in the lattice dynamics between MgSiN$_{2}$, MgGeN$_{2}$ and AlN, for example we find that the highest phonon frequency in MgSiN$_{2}$ is about 100~cm$^{-1}$ higher than the highest frequency in AlN and that MgGeN$_{2}$ is much softer. We also provide the Born effective charge tensors and dielectric tensors of MgSiN$_{2}$, MgGeN$_{2}$ and AlN. Phonon related thermodynamic properties, such as the heat capacity and entropy, are in very good agreement with available experimental results.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figures, 6 table

Exhaust of Underexpanded Jets from Finite Reservoirs

We examine the response of an underexpanded jet to a depleting, finite reservoir with experiments and simulations. An open-ended shock tube facility with variable reservoir length is used to obtain images of nitrogen and helium jet structures at successive instances during the blowdown from initial pressure ratios of up to 250. The reservoir and ambient pressures are simultaneously measured to obtain the instantaneous pressure ratio. We estimate the time-scales for jet formation and reservoir depletion as a function of the specific heat ratio of the gas and the initial pressure ratio. The jet structure formation time-scale is found to become approximately independent of pressure ratio for ratios greater than 50. In the present work, no evidence of time-dependence in the Mach disk shock location is observed for rates of pressure decrease associated with isentropic blowdown of a finite reservoir while the pressure ratio is greater than 15. The shock location in the finite- reservoir jet can be calculated from an existing empirical fit to infinite-reservoir jet data evaluated at the instantaneous reservoir pressure. For pressure ratios below 15, however, the present data deviate from a compilation of data for infinite-reservoir jets. A new fit is obtained to data in the lower pressure regime. The self-similarity of the jet structure is quantified and departure from similarity is noted to begin at pressure ratios lower than about 15, approximately the same ratio which limits existing empirical fits

Ignition of thermally sensitive explosives between a contact surface and a shock

The dynamics of ignition between a contact surface and a shock wave is investigated using a one-step reaction model with Arrhenius kinetics. Both large activation energy asymptotics and high-resolution finite activation energy numerical simulations are employed. Emphasis is on comparing and contrasting the solutions with those of the ignition process between a piston and a shock, considered previously. The large activation energy asymptotic solutions are found to be qualitatively different from the piston driven shock case, in that thermal runaway first occurs ahead of the contact surface, and both forward and backward moving reaction waves emerge. These waves take the form of quasi-steady weak detonations that may later transition into strong detonation waves. For the finite activation energies considered in the numerical simulations, the results are qualitatively different to the asymptotic predictions in that no backward weak detonation wave forms, and there is only a weak dependence of the evolutionary events on the acoustic impedance of the contact surface. The above conclusions are relevant to gas phase equation of state models. However, when a large polytropic index more representative of condensed phase explosives is used, the large activation energy asymptotic and finite activation energy numerical results are found to be in quantitative agreement

Revenue divergence and competitive balance in a divisional sports league

The North American model of resource allocation in professional sports leagues is adapted for English (association) football. The theoretical relationship between revenue and competitive balance is shown to be robust with respect to changes in teams’ objectives and labour market conditions. Empirical revenue functions are reported for 1926-1999. These indicate a shift in the composition of demand favouring big-city teams and an increase in the sensitivity of revenue to performance. An analysis of match results in the FA Cup competition suggests an increase in competitive imbalance between teams at different levels of the league’s divisional hierarchy, as the theory suggests

Patient experience of lasting negative effects of psychological interventions for anxiety and depression in secondary mental health care services: a national cross-sectional study

Background Patients who undergo psychological treatment can report both negative and positive effects, but evidence of factors influencing the likelihood of negative effects is limited. Aims To identify aspects of the organisation and delivery of secondary care psychological treatment services that are associated with patient experiences of negative effects. Method Cross-sectional survey of people with anxiety and depression who ended psychological treatment delivered by 50 NHS trusts in England. Respondents were asked about how their treatment was organised and delivered and whether they experienced lasting negative effects. Results Of 662 respondents, 90 (14.1%) reported experiencing lasting negative effects. People over the age of 65 were less likely than younger respondents to report negative effects. There was an association between reporting neutral or negative effects and not being referred at what respondents considered to be the right time (OR = 1.712, 95% CI = 1.078–2.726), not receiving the right number of sessions (OR = 3.105, 95% CI = 1.934–4.987), and not discussing progress with their therapist (OR 2.063, 95% CI = 1.290–3.301). Conclusions One in seven patients who took part in this survey reported lasting negative effects from psychological treatment. Steps should be taken to prepare people for the potential for negative experiences of treatment, and progress reviewed during therapy in an effort to identify and prevent negative effects

Parkrun and the promotion of physical activity: insights for primary care clinicians from an online survey.

Background To support efforts to increase social prescribing and reduce levels of physical inactivity, parkrun UK and the Royal College of General Practitioners together developed the parkrun practice initiative to link general practices to local parkruns (free, weekly, timed, physical activity events). General practice staff are encouraged to take part in parkrun events themselves and to encourage patients to participate. Aim To provide insights for primary care clinicians about parkrun participants (parkrunners), especially those with characteristics of patients who might be signposted to physical activity. Design and setting Secondary analysis of an online survey of parkrunners in the UK. Method Responders were ranked into 13 categories using mean parkrun finish time, allowing the following definitions: front runners; median runners; slower runners; runners/walkers; and walkers. Measures included demographics, health conditions, motives for first participating, and perceived impact on health and wellbeing. Results The survey included 45 662 parkrunners. More than 9% of all participants and 45% of walkers were found to have at least one long-term health condition, including arthritis, obesity, depression, hypertension, chronic pain, anxiety, type 2 diabetes, and asthma. Walkers were less likely to be motivated by fitness or competition, and were more likely to be motivated by physical health. Despite these differences, perceived improvements to wellbeing were broadly similar for all parkrunners, regardless of their finishing time. Conclusion Parkrunners are a diverse population in terms of their physical health. Information provided by this study could be combined with other research on the barriers to participation and successful brief interventions to help address the key issues of primary care clinicians’ knowledge and confidence about social prescribing to increase patients’ physical activity levels

Antithetic Conjuncts in Written English

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68390/2/10.1177_003368827901000204.pd

Sequential phosphorylation of adjacent serine residues on the N-terminal region of cardiac troponin-I: structure-activity implications of ordered phosphorylation

AbstractWe have used NMR spectroscopy to monitor the phosphorylation of a peptide corresponding to the N-terminal region of human cardiac troponin-I (residues 17–30), encompassing the two adjacent serine residues of the dual phosphorylation site. An ordered incorporation of phosphate catalysed by PKA was observed, with phosphorylation of Ser-24 preceding that of Ser-23. Diphosphorylation induced a conformational transition in this region, involving the specific association of the Arg-22 and Ser-24P side-chains, and maximally stabilised when both phosphoserines were in the di-anionic form. The results suggest that the second phosphorylation at Ser-23 of cardiac troponin-I is of particular significance in the mechanism by which adrenaline regulates the calcium sensitivity of the myofibrillar actomyosin Mg-ATPase