Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938,1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

Controlled surgery with trivial local fundamental groups

We provide a proof of the controlled surgery sequence, including stability, in the special case that the local fundamental groups are trivial. Stability is a key ingredient in the construction of exotic homology manifolds by Bryant, Ferry, Mio and Weinberger, but no proof has been available. The development given here is based on work of M. Yamasaki.Comment: 5 page

Rationalization and Iron Cage: A Critique of Students\u27 Perceptions of Higher Education

Using Max Weber\u27s critique of bureaucratic institutions and their tendency to impose an iron cage, this research examines the organization of higher education and its role in the motivation and attitudes of the students. Higher education is an institution that thrives on efficiency and profit, often at the cost of education and beneficience by the students. Students often exploit the efficiency of education and rationalize pursuing higher education to obtain a degree as opposed to the pursuit of knowledge. The work herein observes cost of tuition and fees and ratio of full-time professors to part-time professors, as well as information from current students concerning their attitudes about and motivation for attending a higher education institution. Results indicate that students are rationalizing their efforts in higher education as a means to an end and not an opportunity to discover joy in learning. In light of Weber\u27s evaluation of bureaucracies, results are discussed with regard to the role of higher education in students\u27 rationalizations of their educational experiences

Perceptions of Transactional and Transformational Leaders According to Gender

The lack of females occupying leadership positions in the modern workplace has prompted the research of this study. In order to better understand the perceptions that exist regarding successful leadership, this study was conducted with the intention of understanding individual leadership style through the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, which measures transactional and transformational leadership styles (Bass and Avolio, 1993). 64 male and female participants, made up of 36 students and 28 individuals in the workforce ages 18-61 with an average age of 31 answered 21 questions to assess their leadership style and 1 to measure who they perceived as a successful leader, with responses coded by gender of responder and response. This study aimed to assess whether males identified more with transactional leadership and females with transformational leadership style, which would confirm current research conducted in the field. The Chi Squared statistical analysis test results showed that 72.4% of males displayed transformational leadership styles, along with 82.9% of females displaying this same style, which showed a lack of significance between gender and difference in leadership style. However, in response to the question asking to identify a successful leader, results showed that most individuals of both gender wrote down a male leader

The Scythe Statistical Library: An Open Source C++ Library for Statistical Computation

The Scythe Statistical Library is an open source C++ library for statistical computation. It includes a suite of matrix manipulation functions, a suite of pseudo-random number generators, and a suite of numerical optimization routines. Programs written using Scythe are generally much faster than those written in commonly used interpreted languages, such as R and \proglang{MATLAB}; and can be compiled on any system with the GNU GCC compiler (and perhaps with other C++ compilers). One of the primary design goals of the Scythe developers has been ease of use for non-expert C++ programmers. Ease of use is provided through three primary mechanisms: (1) operator and function over-loading, (2) numerous pre-fabricated utility functions, and (3) clear documentation and example programs. Additionally, Scythe is quite flexible and entirely extensible because the source code is available to all users under the GNU General Public License.

Dancing to ChaNGa: A Self-Consistent Prediction For Close SMBH Pair Formation Timescales Following Galaxy Mergers

We present the first self-consistent prediction for the distribution of formation timescales for close Supermassive Black Hole (SMBH) pairs following galaxy mergers. Using ROMULUS25, the first large-scale cosmological simulation to accurately track the orbital evolution of SMBHs within their host galaxies down to sub-kpc scales, we predict an average formation rate density of close SMBH pairs of 0.013 cMpc^-3 Gyr^-1. We find that it is relatively rare for galaxy mergers to result in the formation of close SMBH pairs with sub-kpc separation and those that do form are often the result of Gyrs of orbital evolution following the galaxy merger. The likelihood and timescale to form a close SMBH pair depends strongly on the mass ratio of the merging galaxies, as well as the presence of dense stellar cores. Low stellar mass ratio mergers with galaxies that lack a dense stellar core are more likely to become tidally disrupted and deposit their SMBH at large radii without any stellar core to aid in their orbital decay, resulting in a population of long-lived 'wandering' SMBHs. Conversely, SMBHs in galaxies that remain embedded within a stellar core form close pairs in much shorter timescales on average. This timescale is a crucial, though often ignored or very simplified, ingredient to models predicting SMBH mergers rates and the connection between SMBH and star formation activity.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Full-scale measurement and analysis of train slipstreams and wakes. Part 1: Ensemble averages

This paper describes a series of extensive and unique full-scale measurements of the slipstreams of trains of various types that were carried out as part of the EU-sponsored AeroTRAIN project, together with the analysis of the experimental data. These experiments were carried out with the fundamental aim of seeking to reduce the complexity of the current technical specifications for interoperability (TSI) testing methodology. Experimental sites in Spain and Germany were used, for a range of different train types - high-speed single-unit trains, high-speed double-unit trains, conventional passenger units and locomotive/coach combinations. The data that was obtained was supplemented by other data from previous projects. The analysis primarily involved a study of the ensemble averages of the slipstream velocities, measured both at trackside and above platforms. The differences between the flows around different train types were elucidated, and the effect of platforms on slipstream behaviour described. A brief analysis of the effects of crosswinds on slipstream behaviour was also carried out. Through a detailed analysis of slipstream velocity components, the detailed nature of the flow around the nose and in the near wake of the train was investigated, again revealing differences in flow pattern between different trains. Significant similarity in the far wake flows was revealed. These fundamental results form the basis for the detailed discussion of the proposed TSI methodology that will be presented in Part 2 of this paper. Overall the results enable the nature of the flow field around trains to be understood in far greater detail than before, and also allow the developments of a revised TSI methodology which is more efficient than current practice. © IMechE 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav