Analysis of Changes in Precipitation and Drought in Aksu River Basin, Northwest China

The analysis of the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation and drought is relevant for the future development and sustainable management of water resources in a given region. In this study, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) trends were analyzed through applying linear regression, Mann-Kendall, and Spearman's Rho tests at the 5% significance level. For this goal, meteorological data from 9 meteorological stations in and around Aksu Basin during the period 1960-2010 was used, and two main annual drought periods were detected (1978-1979 and 1983-1986), while the extremely dry years were recorded in 1975 and 1985 at almost all of the stations. The monthly analysis of precipitation series indicates that all stations had increasing trend in July, October, and December, while both increasing and decreasing trends were found in other months. For the seasonal scale, precipitation series had increasing trends in summer and winter. 33% of the stations had the decreasing trend on precipitation in the spring series, and it was 11% in the autumn. At the same time, the SPI-12 values of all stations had the increasing trend. The significant trends were detected at Aheqi, Baicheng, Keping, and Kuche stations

Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Spatiotemporal Characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area in China

The temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought have been investigated to provide a framework of methodologies for the analysis of drought in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area (BTHMA) in China. Using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts have been examined. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area was divided into 253 grid-cells of 27 × 27km and monthly precipitation data for the period of 1960–2010 from 33 meteorological stations were used for global interpolation of precipitation using spatial co-ordinate data. Drought severity was assessed from the estimated gridded RDI values at multiple time scales. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts were analyzed, and then drought severity-areal extent-frequency (SAF) annual curves were developed. The analysis indicated that the frequency of moderate and severe droughts was about 9.10% in the BTHMA. Using the SAF curves, the return period of selected severe drought events was assessed. The identification of the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in the BTHMA will be useful for the development of a drought preparedness plan in the region

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Areas in China

Drought identification and assessment are essential for regional water resources management. In this paper, the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought were evaluated based on monthly precipitation data from 33 synoptic stations during the period of 1960–2010. The percent of normal precipitation was applied to illustrate the driest years in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas (BTHMA) (1965, 1997, and 2002). The modified Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) was applied to capture the drought patterns and to estimate the drought severity at 33 meteorological stations. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis (AHCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to identify three different drought subregions R1, R2, and R3 based on the monthly precipitation values in BTHMA, which is located in southeast, north, and south of BTHMA, respectively. The year 1965 was the driest and 1964 was the wettest during the observed period. The characteristics of drought were analyzed in terms of the temporal evolution of the RDI-12 values and the frequency of drought for the three identified regions. The percentage of years characterized by drought was 13.73% for R1, 16.50% for R2, and 15.53% for R3. 66.91% of drought belongs to the near normal drought category. The obtained results can aid to improve water resources management in the area

Using Imagination to Overcome Fear: How Mental Simulation Nudges Consumers’ Purchase Intentions for Upcycled Food

Upcycled food, a new kind of food, provides an effective solution to reduce the food waste from the source on the premise of food security for human beings. However, the commercial success of upcycled food and its contribution to environmental sustainability are determined by consumers’ purchase intentions. In order to overcome consumers’ unfamiliarity with upcycled food and fear of new technology, based on the cue utility theory, we adopted scenario simulation through online questionnaires in three experiments to explore how mental simulation can improve consumers’ product evaluation and purchase intentions for upcycled food. Through ANOVA, the t-test, and the Bootstrap methods, the results showed that, compared with the control group, consumers’ product evaluation and purchase intentions for upcycled food in the mental simulation group significantly increased. Among them, consumers’ inspiration played a mediation role. The consumers’ future self-continuity could moderate the effect of mental simulation on consumers’ purchase intentions for upcycled food. The higher the consumers’ future self-continuity, the stronger the effect of mental simulation. Based on the above results, in the marketing promotion of upcycled food, promotional methods, such as slogans and posters, could be used to stimulate consumers, especially the mental simulation thinking mode of consumer groups with high future self-continuity, thus improving consumers’ purchase intentions for upcycled food

Using Imagination to Overcome Fear: How Mental Simulation Nudges Consumers’ Purchase Intentions for Upcycled Food

Upcycled food, a new kind of food, provides an effective solution to reduce the food waste from the source on the premise of food security for human beings. However, the commercial success of upcycled food and its contribution to environmental sustainability are determined by consumers’ purchase intentions. In order to overcome consumers’ unfamiliarity with upcycled food and fear of new technology, based on the cue utility theory, we adopted scenario simulation through online questionnaires in three experiments to explore how mental simulation can improve consumers’ product evaluation and purchase intentions for upcycled food. Through ANOVA, the t-test, and the Bootstrap methods, the results showed that, compared with the control group, consumers’ product evaluation and purchase intentions for upcycled food in the mental simulation group significantly increased. Among them, consumers’ inspiration played a mediation role. The consumers’ future self-continuity could moderate the effect of mental simulation on consumers’ purchase intentions for upcycled food. The higher the consumers’ future self-continuity, the stronger the effect of mental simulation. Based on the above results, in the marketing promotion of upcycled food, promotional methods, such as slogans and posters, could be used to stimulate consumers, especially the mental simulation thinking mode of consumer groups with high future self-continuity, thus improving consumers’ purchase intentions for upcycled food