Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios

The potential for using findings from socio-technical energy transition (STET) models in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) has been proposed by several authors. A STET simulation model called TEMPEST, which includes the influence of societal and political factors in the UK’s energy transition, is used to model three of the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at the national level. The SSP narratives are interpreted as inputs to TEMPEST, which drive scenario simulations to reflect varying societal preferences for mitigation measures, the level of political support for energy transition, and future economic and population trends. SSP1 and SSP2 come close to meeting net zero targets in 2050 but SSP5 does not reach net zero by 2080. An estimate of the total societal, political, and economic cost of scenarios indicates that while SSP1 achieves the best emissions reductions it also has the highest total cost, and SSP2 achieves the best ratio between rate of emissions reductions and total cost. Feasibility appears to be highest for SSP2 since it is the least different to historical precedent. Current UK government energy strategy is closer to the narrative in SSP5, however, which has the highest total cost and exceeds an estimated carbon budget by 32%. Recommendations for using TEMPEST findings in IAMs include: (i) the uncertainty in emissions savings from variable political and societal support for energy transition, (ii) the influence of societal pushback to policies in achievement of expected policy outcomes, and (iii) introducing additional drivers for future patterns of energy services demand

Innovative approaches to developing deep decarbonisation strategies

After years of discussion by the international community as to how best to tackle the challenge of climate change, the Paris Agreement in 2015 both refocused attention on the necessary climate mitigation goals and saw a shift towards a more bottom-up, country-led approach to delivering on this agreed ambition. It is in this context that the research presented in this thesis on Innovative approaches to developing deep decarbonisation strategies has been undertaken. Recognising that the energy system is the largest source of CO2 emissions contributing to climate change, analytical approaches such as those using energy models, are needed to help decision makers navigate the different options to drive the energy system towards being low carbon and net-zero emitting in future years. However, there is a question as to whether energy modelling, notably energy systems modelling, is fit-for-purpose or needs to further adapt and innovate. This concerns not only the functionality and credibility of the modelling tool, but also its application to the decarbonisation challenge, including the analytical process in which it sits. This research focuses on innovation in modelling approaches in two key interlinked areas; i) characterising deep uncertainty of the transition across different domains, and ii) opening up the analytical process to greater scrutiny and participation. The interlinkage is that ‘deep uncertainty’, which both reflects a lack of agreement on model framing, structure, and assumptions, and what constitutes a desirable outcome, necessitates enhanced scrutiny and participation by a range of stakeholders

Challenges and opportunities for energy system modelling to foster multi-level governance of energy transitions

Achieving the swift energy transition necessary to meet global climate ambitions requires concerted action across governance scales, from municipal authorities to national governments. Decision-making is often closely informed by energy system modelling, making energy models a crucial tool to foster a multi-level governance system that is based on mutual understanding and coordination across scales. Here, we review 186 energy modelling studies and identify challenges and opportunities for the energy modelling community to take into account and facilitate multi-level governance systems. We show that current energy modelling practices typically focus on and aim to support a single scale, largely overlooking the multi-level nature of energy governance. Embedding multi-level governance throughout the energy modelling process entails significant obstacles but is crucial for ensuring such approaches continue to provide timely and salient decision-support

Capturing the distributional impacts of long-term low-carbon transitions

Major policy proposals often require a distributional impact assessment, focusing on differential financial and other impacts across population segments. Such assessments are rare, however, at the multi-decadal scale addressed in long-term (e.g. to 2050) low carbon transition modelling. There is therefore a risk of socially inequitable outcomes, which in turn presents a socio-political risk for decision-makers driving transitions. This paper uses a literature review and expert interviews to identify mechanisms by which low carbon transitions could differentially impact population sub-groups. As well as impacts of policy costs on bills, this includes factors such as ability to connect to heat networks or install onsite generation or storage. An approach to exploring distributional impacts across a range of long term scenarios from a United Kingdom energy model (ESME), is proposed. This sets out how bill changes and other costs associated with low carbon transition could impact different income quintiles in the UK

UKERC Energy Strategy Under Uncertainties An Integrated Systematic Analysis of Uncertainties in UK Energy Transition Pathways

energy systems. It is the hub of UK energy research and the gateway between the UK and the international energy research communities. Our interdisciplinary, whole systems research informs UK policy development and research strategy. www.ukerc.ac.uk The Meeting Place- hosting events for the whole of the UK energy research community-www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/TheMeetingPlace National Energy Research Network- a weekly newsletter containing news, jobs, event, opportunities and developments across the energy field- www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/NERN Research Atlas- the definitive information resource for current and past UK energy research and development activity

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot, global coal, oil, and natural gas supply (intended for all uses) decline on average by 95%, 62%, and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050, but the long-term role of gas is highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO2 storage capacity and technology adoption, diffusion, and path-dependencies. If CDR is constrained by limits derived from expert consensus, the respective modelled coal, oil, and gas reductions become 99%, 70%, and 84%. Our findings suggest the need to adopt unambiguous near- and long-term reduction benchmarks in coal, oil, and gas production and use alongside other climate mitigation targets

Analysing RES support mechanisms in the EU post-2020

-Policies in the sectors of heating and cooling, and transport need a stronger focus to achieve the EU 2020 and 2030 renewable share targets. -There is scope to introduce policy measures supporting Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the transport sector (RES-T) such as a single binding legislative framework at the EU level while allowing differentiated support for efficient biofuels, green certificates as well as the uptake of electric and hydrogen mobility -In addition to setting overall targets the EC can play a role in monitoring retroactive measures at the Member States (MS) level, develop clear sustainability criteria to support bioenergy, and ensure that MS RES policy packages are consistent with the internal energy market -Costs of ancillary services such as balancing reserves will need to be distributed fairly between network operators and end-users across national borders as the EU moves towards an common internal energy marke

The future role of natural gas in the UK: a bridge to nowhere?

The UK has ambitious, statutory long-term climate targets that will require deep decarbonisation of its energy system. One key question facing policymakers is the role of natural gas both during the transition towards, and in the achievement of, a future low-carbon energy system. Here we assess a range of possible futures for the UK, and find that gas is unlikely to act as a cost-effective ‘bridge’ to a decarbonised UK energy system. There is also limited scope for gas in power generation after 2030 if the UK is to meet its emission reduction targets, in the absence of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Without CCS, a ‘second dash for gas’ while providing short-term gains in reducing emissions, is unlikely to be the most cost-effective way to reduce emissions, and could result in stranded assets and compromise the UK's decarbonisation ambitions. In such a case, gas use in 2050 is estimated at only 10% of its 2010 level. However, with significant CCS deployment by 2050, natural gas could remain at 50–60% of the 2010 level, primarily in the industrial (including hydrogen production) and power generation sectors

Implications of climate targets on oil production and fiscal revenues in Latin America and the Caribbean

While many governments rely on oil production and exports for fiscal revenues, the global energy transition driven by climate policy and technological change makes future demand and prices uncertain. We propose a framework to explore prospects for oil production, public revenues from oil, and unexploited oil reserves under hundreds of future energy transitions scenarios, following robust decision making principles. We apply it to Latin American and the Caribbean, a developing region that exports half its oil production and faces fiscal constraints. We use the BUEGO (Bottom-Up Economic and Geological Oil field production) model to simulate field development and production decisions globally. We find that oil production in the region over the next 15 years is highly sensitive to the impact of global climate action on oil prices and to the strategies of large global producers, while choices around oil fiscal regimes have limited impact. Also, 66 to 81% of proved, probable and possible reserves will remain unused by 2035. Finally, cumulative fiscal and nonfiscal revenues from oil would be $1.3-2.6 trillion under strong global climate action, compared to$2.7-6.8 trillion if reserves were strongly exploited. Our findings confirm that governments need to diversify their fiscal revenues away from dependency on oil production

Regional uptake of direct reduction iron production using hydrogen under climate policy

The need to reduce CO2 emissions to zero by 2050 has meant an increasing focus on high emitting industrial sectors such as steel. However, significant uncertainties remain as to the rate of technology diffusion across steel production pathways in different regions, and how this might impact on climate ambition. Informed by empirical analysis of historical transitions, this paper presents modelling on the regional deployment of Direction Reduction Iron using hydrogen (DRI-H2). We find that DRI-H2 can play a leading role in the decarbonisation of the sector, leading to near-zero emissions by 2070. Regional spillovers from early to late adopting regions can speed up the rate of deployment of DRI-H2, leading to lower cumulative emissions and system costs. Without such effects, cumulative emissions are 13% higher than if spillovers are assumed and approximately 15% and 20% higher in China and India respectively. Given the estimates of DRI-H2 cost-effectiveness relative to other primary production technologies, we also find that costs increase in the absence of regional spillovers. However, other factors can also have impacts on deployment, emission reductions, and costs, including the composition of the early adopter group, material efficiency improvements and scrap recycling rates. For the sector to achieve decarbonisation, key regions will need to continue to invest in low carbon steel projects, recognising their broader global benefit, and look to develop and strengthen policy coordination on technologies such as DRI-H2