Empirical Analysis of Competitive Interaction in Food Product Categories

This paper provides an overview of recent research on estimating competitive interaction in food product categories. In particular, the focus of this review is on research using scanner data conducted at the disaggregate (e.g., store, chain or local market) level, including empirical studies of vertical (i.e., within-channel) conduct. Studies addressing the competitive interaction on price, as well as non-price variables (e.g., in-store display and feature advertising) are considered. The author first describes the methodologies available for measuring the competitive interaction between firms and then briefly summarizes recent empirical developments. Given the complexity of the interactions that take place in practice, it is argued that much of the richness of actual competitive behavior is lost in aggregate analysis. Competitive interaction is the result of a complex set of variables and influences-demand side factors, market and industry structure, firm "personality", and category characteristics all interact in a complex fashion to determine strategic behavior of retailers and manufacturers.competition, competitive strategy, channel behavior, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization,

Testing the Theory: Vertical Strategic Interaction and Demand Functional Form

Formulating theoretical models inevitably requires various simplifications that assist in making analysis tractable and that facilitate deriving closed form solutions. While the strategic insights gained from theoretical models of market phenomena are often quite valuable, testing the theoretical assumptions made in these models can aid in assessing the broader applicability of the conclusions drawn. This is particularly true in the channels area, where the focus of research to date has largely been theoretical in nature. In an initial attempt to examine some of the assumptions made in previous theoretical research (e.g., Jeuland and Shugan 1983, McGuire and Staelin 1983, Choi 1991, Raju, Sethuraman and Dhar 1995), we focus on a limited set of issues. First, we empirically examine the vertical channel assumptions made in two well-cited models of retailer-manufacturer interaction: a) the Choi (1991) Manufacturer-Stackelberg (MS) model, and b) the Raju, Sethuraman and Dhar (1995) Stackelberg model addressing store brands. Specifically, empirical tests are developed for Manufacturer Stackelberg conduct and the use of proportional mark-up rules within the channel. Second, since each of these models assume relatively simple linear demand structures, we examine how well linear demands characterize actual market behavior by comparing them to a flexible non-linear form, the LA/AIDS model. The empirical analysis is conducted using data for six individual categories (milk, butter, bread, pasta, margarine and instant coffee) across 59 local markets in 1991 and 1992. The empirical results generally support the assumptions of proportional mark-up behavior by retailers and Manufacturer Stackelberg conduct (Choi 1991) within the channel. While this lends support to the assumptions made in a number of theoretical models addressing channel behavior, we reject linear demands in a favor of a more flexible non-linear form. When combined with the analytical work of Lee and Staelin (1997), this suggests that additional theoretical and empirical work is needed in order to fully understand the implications of using a linear demand specification.pricing, channels, private labels, competitive strategy, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization,

Assessing the Competitive Interaction Between Private Labels and National Brands

In contrast to single-equation cross-sectional studies of private label share, developing a complete understanding of the nature of the competitive interaction between national brands and private labels requires an understanding of the determinants of both demand and strategic pricing decisions by firms. Consequently, we estimate a simultaneous system of share and price for private labels and national brands. From the empirical results, two measures of market response are derived. The unilateral demand elasticity measures the pure own demand response, while the residual (or total) elasticity also captures the impact of competitive price reaction (Baker and Bresnahan 1985). When taken together, these provide important strategic insights into the pricing interaction between national brands and private labels. In our empirical analysis, we employ a flexible, non-linear demand specification, the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS, Deaton and Muellbauer 1980a), and specify the price reaction equations derived under the LA/AIDS demand specification. Incorporating LA/AIDS demands into a structural equation framework represents an important departure from previous demand specifications in competitive analysis. Using the proposed LA/AIDS framework, we perform a detailed intra-category analysis using data on six individual categories: bread, milk, pasta, instant coffee, butter and margarine. In addition, in an attempt to generalize the results to a broader set of categories and in order to enable us to compare our results to previous cross-section studies, we also estimate using a sample pooled across 125 categories and 59 geographic markets. Consistent with our objectives, we find that consumer response to price and promotion decisions (demand) and the factors influencing firm pricing behavior (supply) jointly determine observed market prices and market shares. Further, estimates of residual demand elasticities suggest that examination of partial demand elasticities alone may provide an incomplete picture of the ability of brands to raise price. Managerial implications, limitations and suggestion for future research are discussed.competition, competitive strategy, private labels, pricing, Demand and Price Analysis,

Market Share and Price Setting Behavior For Private Labels and National Brands

In this paper, we develop a framework for estimating market share and price reaction equations in an attempt to understand the nature of competitive interaction in the market for private label and branded grocery products. Specifically, we employ a Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS, Deaton and Muellbauer 1980a), and specify the price reaction equations derived under the LA/AIDS demand specification. This enables us to consistently estimate shareprice relationships, accounting for demand-side and competitive reactions simultaneously. The incorporation of LA/AIDS demands into a structural equation framework represents an important departure from previous demand specifications in competitive analysis. In addition to its rigorous foundation in utility theory, LA/AIDS demands are especially flexible for demand-side estimation, provide consistent reaction functions on the supply side, and have particularly nice aggregation properties. In order to test the relative contribution of employing a flexible LA/AIDS functional form on the demand-side, and in a preliminary attempt to assess manufacturer-retailer interaction on the supply side, we compare our general framework (LA/AIDS demands with retailers following a proportional markup rule) to two alternative models of manufacturer-retailer interaction: Chois (1991) Manufacturer-Stackelberg (M-S) model under linear demands, as well as Shubik demands under Stackelberg conduct (Raju, Sethuraman and Dhar 1995a, 1995b). We first apply the proposed LA/AIDS framework to a sample pooled across 125 categories and 54 geographic markets in an attempt to produce result that generalize across the entire sample. We then estimate all three models using data on seven individual categories: bread, milk, pasta, yogurt, instant coffee, butter and margarine. We conclude that the LA/AIDS demand specification is preferred to the alternative linear demand specifications. Further, the empirical findings support our premise that consumer response to price and promotion decisions (demand) and the factors influencing firm pricing behavior (supply) jointly determine observed market prices and market shares. Most importantly, our specification with LA/AIDS demands produced excellent overall fits, as well as reasonable demand and price response elasticities.competition, competitive strategy, private labels, pricing, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization,

Marketing Models and the Lucas Critique

The Lucas critique has been largely ignored in the marketing literature. We present a number of conditions under which the critique is most likely to (also) apply in marketing settings. Next, we provide some perspectives on how to diagnose and accommodate the Lucas critique, and identify various avenues for future research

A Dynamic Model of Mobile Telephony Subscription Incorporating a Network Effect

This study examines the growth of global mobile telephony and the economic factors that affect this growth. Mobile telephony has exhibited substantial growth in the decade to 2000 and this growth is expected to continue with the introduction of technically advanced mobile cellular networks. A dynamic demand model is estimated by using global telecommunications panel data comprised of 56 countries. Results from the estimation are provided along with elasticity estimates and impulse response functions for price and income

The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies

Bass diffusion models are one of the competing paradigms to forecast the diffusion of innovative products or technologies. This approach posits that diffusion patterns can be modeled through two mechanisms: Innovators adopt the new product and imitators purchase the new product when getting in contact with existing users. Crucial for the implementation of the method are the values assigned to the two parameters, usually referred to as p and q, which mathematically describe innovation and imitation mechanisms. The present paper is based on the findings of a research project about policy measures to promote the diffusion of Electric Vehicles in Germany. It investigates how practitioners could choose adequate values for the Bass model parameters to forecast new automotive technologies diffusion with a focus on Electric Vehicles. It considers parameters provided by the literature as well as ad hoc parameter estimations based on real market data for Germany. Our investigation suggests that researchers may be in trouble in electing adequate parameter values since the different eligible parameter values exhibit dramatic variations. Literature values appear discussible and widely variable while ad hoc estimates appear poorly conclusive. A serious problem is that ad-hoc estimates of the Bass p value are highly sensitive to the assumed market potential M. So for plausible values of M, p varies on a high scale. Unless more consolidation takes place in this area, or more confidence can be placed on ad hoc estimates, these findings issue a warning for the users of such approaches and on the policy recommendations that would derive from their use

The Sales Effect of Word of Mouth: A Model for Creative Goods and Estimates for Novels

Weekly sales of creative goods – like music records, movies or books – usually peak shortly after release and then decline quickly. In many cases, however, they follow a hump-shaped pattern where sales increase for some time. A popular explanation for this phenomenon is word of mouth among a population of heterogeneous buyers, but previous studies typically assume buyer homogeneity or neglect word of mouth altogether. In this paper, I study a model of new-product diffusion with heterogeneous buyers that allows for a quantification of the sales effect of word of mouth. The model includes Christmas sales as a special case. All parameters have an intuitive interpretation. Simulation results suggest that the parameters are estimable for data that are not too volatile and that cover a sufficiently large part of a title’s life cycle. I estimate the model for four exemplary novels using scanner data on weekly sales.Meistens erreichen die wöchentlichen Verkäufe von kreativen Produkten wie Musikalben, Kinofilmen oder Büchern kurz nach Veröffentlichung ihren Höhepunkt und nehmen dann schnell ab. In einigen Fällen jedoch zeigen sie einen buckelartigen Verlauf mit zunächst ansteigenden Verkäufen. Eine populäre Erklärung für dieses Phänomen beruht auf der Existenz von Mundpropaganda unter heterogenen Käufern, doch bisherige Studien gehen typischerweise von der Annahme homogener Käufer aus oder vernachlässigen Mundpropaganda gänzlich. Dieses Papier betrachtet ein Modell der Verbreitung neuer Produkte unter heterogenen Käufern, welches eine Quantifizierung der Verkaufswirkung von Mundpropaganda ermöglicht. Das Modell beinhaltet Weihnachtsverkäufe als Spezialfall. Alle Modellparameter haben eine intuitive Bedeutung. Ergebnisse einer Simulation zeigen, dass die Parameter empirisch geschätzt werden können, wenn die Daten einen hinreichend großen Teil des Verkaufszyklus eines Titels abdecken und nicht zu volatil sind. Das Modell wird auf Scannerdaten für vier exemplarische Romane angewendet

Factors affecting innovation and imitation of ICT in the agrifood sector

Diffusion of innovations has gained a lot of attention and concerns different scientific fields. Many studies, which examine the determining factors of technological innovations in the agricultural and agrifood sector, have been conducted using the widely used Technology Accepted Model, for a random sample of farmers or firms engaged in agricultural sector. In the present study, a holistic examination of the determining factors that affect the propensity of firms to innovate or imitate, is conducted. The diffusion of ICT tools of firms which are engaged in the NACE 02/03 as well as in the NACE 10/11 classifications for 49 heterogeneous national markets is examined, using the Bass model. The innovation parameter is positively associated with rural income, female employment, export activity and education of farmers, while the imitation parameter is increased in countries whose societies are characterized by uncertainty avoidance