Piecewise evolutionary spectra: A practical approach to understanding projected changes in spectral relationships between circulation modes and regional climate under global warming

Regional climate variability is strongly related to large-scale circulation modes. However, little is known about changes in their spectral characteristics under climate change. Here, we introduce piecewise evolutionary spectra to quantify time-varying variability and co-variability of climate variables, and use ensemble periodograms to estimate these spectra. By employing a large ensemble of climate change simulations, we show that changes in the variability and relationships of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and regional surface temperatures are disparate on individual timescales. The relation between NAO and surface temperature over high-latitude lands weakens the most on 20-year timescales compared to shorter timescales, whereas the relation between NAO and temperature over subtropical North Africa strengthens more on shorter timescales than on 20-year timescales. These projected evolution and timescale-dependent changes shed new light on the controlling factors of circulation-induced regional changes. Accounting for them can lead to the improvement of future regional climate predictions. © 2021. The Authors

Importance of ocean mesoscale variability for air-sea interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

Mesoscale variability of currents in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can affect oceanic heat advection and air-sea heat exchanges, which can influence climate extremes over North America. This study is aimed at understanding the influence of the oceanic mesoscale variability on the lower atmosphere and air-sea heat exchanges. The study contrasts global climate model (GCM) with 0.1° ocean resolution (high resolution; HR) with its low-resolution counterpart (1° ocean resolution with the same 0.5° atmosphere resolution; LR). The LR simulation is relevant to current generation of GCMs that are still unable to resolve the oceanic mesoscale. Similar to observations, HR exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies, while LR has negative correlation. For HR, we decompose lateral advective heat fluxes in the upper ocean into mean (slowly varying) and mesoscale-eddy (fast fluctuations) components. We find that the eddy flux divergence/convergence dominates the lateral advection and correlates well with the SST anomalies and air-sea latent heat exchanges. This result suggests that oceanic mesoscale advection supports warm SST anomalies that in turn feed surface heat flux. We identify anticyclonic warm-core circulation patterns (associated Loop Current and rings) which have an average diameter of ~350 km. These warm anomalies are sustained by eddy heat flux convergence at submonthly time scales and have an identifiable imprint on surface turbulent heat flux, atmospheric circulation, and convective precipitation in the northwest portion of an averaged anticyclone. ©2017. American Geophysical Union

Surface flux drivers for the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a high resolution global coupled climate model

This paper investigates the causation for the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from approximately 17 Sv to about 9 Sv, when the atmospheric resolution of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model is enhanced from ∼1° to ∼0.5°. The results show that the slowdown of the AMOC is caused by the cessation of deep convection. In most modeling studies, this is thought to be controlled by buoyancy fluxes in the convective regions, for example, by surface freshwater flux that is introduced locally or via enormous input from glacier or iceberg melts. While we find that freshwater is still the key to the reduction of AMOC seen in the higher-resolution run, the freshening of the North Atlantic does not need to be directly caused by local freshwater fluxes. Instead, it can be caused indirectly through winds via a reduced wind-driven gyre circulation and salinity transport associated to this circulation, as seen in the higher-resolution run. © 2019. The Authors

Nonlocal and local wind forcing dependence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its depth scale

We use wind sensitivity experiments to understand the wind forcing dependencies of the level of no motion and the e-folding pycnocline scale as well as their relationship to northward transport of the mid-depth Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) south and north of the equator. In contrast to previous studies, we investigate the interplay of nonlocal and local wind effects on a decadal timescale. We use 30-year simulations with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) which is an eddy-resolving version of the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM). Our findings deviate from the common perspective that the AMOC is a nonlocal phenomenon only, because northward transport in the inter-hemispheric cell can only be understood by analyzing nonlocal Southern Ocean wind effects and local wind effects in the northern hemisphere downwelling region where Ekman pumping takes place. Southern Ocean wind forcing predominantly determines the magnitude of the pycnocline scale throughout the basin, whereas northern hemisphere winds additionally influence the level of no motion locally. In that respect, the level of no motion is a better proxy for northward transport and mid-depth velocity profiles despite the Ekman return flow which is found to be baroclinic. We compare our results inferred from the wind experiments and a 100-year global warming experiment in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration is quadrupled, using MPIOM coupled to an atmospheric model. We find that the evolution of the level of no motion in response to global warming represents changes in vertical velocity profiles or northward transport, whereas the changes of the pycnocline scale are opposite to the changes of the level of no motion over time. Using the level of no motion as depth scale, the analysis of the wind experiments and the warming experiment suggests a hemisphere-dependent scaling of the strength of AMOC. Furthermore, we put forward the idea that the ability of numerical models to capture the spatial and temporal variations of the level of no motion is crucial to reproduce the mid-depth cell in an appropriate wa

Response of northern North Atlantic and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to reduced and enhanced wind stress forcing

Surface wind stress strongly influences AMOC variability on interannual time scales. On longer time scales, however, its role in AMOC variations is less clear. Here, we show a non-linear AMOC response to globally reduced and enhanced wind stress forcing, based on sensitivity experiments with MPI-ESM1.2. Under reduced wind stress forcing, the AMOC strength strongly decreases. In contrast, under enhanced wind stress forcing the AMOC strength increases only in the first decades and then decreases, stabilizing at a value similar to the reference simulation. To reveal possible mechanisms underlying this response, we assess the response of the northern North Atlantic circulation and climate to the changed wind stress forcing. Initially, the response is linear: reduced wind stress forcing weakens the gyre circulation and the associated heat and salt transport, leading to larger winter sea ice extent and a shutdown of subpolar deep convection. In the Nordic Seas, the fresher and lighter subsurface state leads to a decrease in the baroclinic pressure and the overflow strength. Under enhanced wind stress forcing, initially the opposite is happening. However, eventually subpolar surface density anomalies are determined by warmer temperature rather than increased salinity, leading to a decrease in surface density and a weakening of subpolar deep convection. The resulting AMOC weakening reduces the Atlantic inflow salinity, and subsequently the Nordic Seas baroclinic pressure and overflow strength. The quasi-equilibrium response of the northern North Atlantic circulation and climate under enhanced wind stress forcing differs from the reference simulation, even though the AMOC strength converges

Tropical tropospheric warming pattern explained by shifts in convective heating in the Matsuno-Gill model

The research is supported by public funding to the Max Planck Society. H. Schmidt acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research within the SOCTOC project of the ROMIC2 programme.Horizontal temperature gradients in the tropical free troposphere are fairly weak, and tropical tropospheric warming is usually treated as uniform. However, here we show that projected tropospheric warming is spatially inhomogeneous in CMIP6 models, as well as in a storm-resolving climate model. We relate the upper tropospheric warming pattern to sea surface temperature changes that reorganise convection and thereby cause spatial shifts in convective heating. Using the classical Gill model for tropical circulation and forcing it with precipitation changes that arise due to greenhouse gas warming we can understand and reproduce the different warming patterns simulated by a range of global climate models. Forcing the Gill model with precipitation changes from a certain region demonstrates how local tropospheric temperature changes depend on local changes in convective heating. Close to the equator anomalous geopotential gradients are balanced by the dissipation term in the Gill model. The optimal dissipation timescale to reproduce the warming pattern varies depending on the CMIP6 model, and is between 1 and 10 days. We demonstrate that horizontal advection and eddy momentum fluxes have large enough equivalent dissipation timescales to balance the gradients in geopotential and thereby shape the warming pattern. While climate models show a large spread in projections of tropical sea surface temperature and precipitation changes, our results imply that once these predictions improve, our confidence in the predicted upper tropospheric warming pattern should also increase.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Comparison of ocean vertical mixing schemes in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2)

For the first time, we compare the effects of four different ocean vertical mixing schemes on the mean state of the ocean and atmosphere in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2). These four schemes are namely the default Pacanowski and Philander (1981) (PP) scheme, the K-profile parameterization (KPP) from the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMix) library, a recently implemented scheme based on turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and a recently developed prognostic scheme for internal wave dissipation, energy, and mixing (IDEMIX) to replace the often assumed constant background diffusivity in the ocean interior. In this study, the IDEMIX scheme is combined with the TKE scheme (collectively called the TKE+IDEMIX scheme) to provide an energetically more consistent framework for mixing, as it does not rely on the unwanted effect of creating spurious energy for mixing. Energetic consistency can have implications on the climate. Therefore, we focus on the effects of TKE+IDEMIX on the climate mean state and compare them with the first three schemes that are commonly used in other models but are not energetically consistent. We find warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas using KPP or TKE(+IDEMIX), which is related to 10 % higher overflows that cause a stronger and deeper upper cell of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thereby an enhanced northward heat transport and higher inflow of warm and saline water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic. Saltier subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas lead to increased deep convection and thus to the increased overflows. Due to the warmer SSTs, the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere become warmer with TKE(+IDEMIX), weakening the meridional gradient and thus the jet stream. With KPP, the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere also become warmer without weakening the jet stream. Using an energetically more consistent scheme (TKE+IDEMIX) produces a more heterogeneous and realistic pattern of vertical eddy diffusivity, with lower diffusivities in deep and flat-bottom basins and elevated turbulence over rough topography. IDEMIX improves in particular the diffusivity in the Arctic Ocean and reduces the warm bias in the Atlantic Water layer. We conclude that although shortcomings due to model resolution determine the global-scale bias pattern, the choice of the vertical mixing scheme may play an important role for regional biases.. © 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). All rights reserve

Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and predictions

Key aspects of the current state of the ability of global and regional climate models to represent dynamical processes and precipitation variations are summarized. Interannual, decadal, and globalwarming timescales, wherein the influence of the oceans is relevant and the potential for predictability is highest, are emphasized. Oceanic influences on climate occur throughout the ocean and extend over land to affect many types of climate variations, including monsoons, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, decadal oscillations, and the response to greenhouse gas emissions. The fundamental ideas of coupling between the ocean-atmosphere-land system are explained for these modes in both global and regional contexts. Global coupled climate models are needed to represent and understand the complicated processes involved and allow us to make predictions over land and sea. Regional coupled climate models are needed to enhance our interpretation of the fine-scale response. The mechanisms by which large-scale, low-frequency variations can influence shorter timescale variations and drive regionalscale effects are also discussed. In this light of these processes, the prospects for practical climate predictability are also presented.AJMwas supported by theNSFEarth System Modeling Program (OCE1419306) and the NOAA Climate Variability and Prediction Program (NA14OAR4310276). HS thanks the Office of Naval Research for support under N00014-15-1-2588. LPP was supported by “Advanced Studies in Medium and High Latitudes Oceanography” (CAPES 23038.004304/2014-28) and “National Institute of Science andTechnology of the Cryosphere” (CNPq/PROANTAR704222/2009). VM was supported by NOAA grant NA12OAR4310078. TGJ was supported by the U. S. Naval Research Laboratory 6.2 project “Fresh Water Balance in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System” (BE-435-040-62435N-6777) YHT was supported by the MOST grant 106-2111-M-002-001, Taiwan

Evaluation of onset, cessation and seasonal precipitation of the Southeast Asia rainy season in CMIP5 regional climate models and HighResMIP global climate models

Representing the rainy season of the maritime continent is a challenge for global and regional climate models. Here, we compare regional climate models (RCMs) based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) model generation with high-resolution global climate models with a comparable spatial resolution from the HighResMIP experiment. The onset and the total precipitation of the rainy season for both model experiments are compared against observational datasets for Southeast Asia. A realistic representation of the monsoon rainfall is essential for agriculture in Southeast Asia as a delayed onset jeopardizes the possibility of having three annual crops. In general, the coupled historical runs (Hist-1950) and the historical force atmosphere run (HighresSST) of the high-resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) suite were consistently closer to the observations than the RCM of CMIP5 used in this study. We find that for the whole of Southeast Asia, the HighResMIP models simulate the onset date and the total precipitation of the rainy season over the region closer to the observations than the other model sets used in this study. High-resolution models in the HighresSST experiment showed a similar performance to their low-resolution equivalents in simulating the monsoon characteristics. The HighresSST experiment simulated the anomaly of the onset date and the total precipitation for different El Niño-southern oscillation conditions best, although the magnitude of the onset date anomaly was underestimated. © 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society

ICON-O: The Ocean Component of the ICON Earth System Model - Global simulation characteristics and local telescoping capability

Abstract We describe the ocean general circulation model ICON-O of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, which forms the ocean-sea ice component of the Earth system model ICON-ESM. ICON-O relies on innovative structure-preserving finite volume numerics. We demonstrate the fundamental ability of ICON-O to simulate key features of global ocean dynamics at both uniform and non-uniform resolution. Two experiments are analyzed and compared with observations, one with a nearly uniform and eddy-rich resolution of ?10?km and another with a telescoping configuration whose resolution varies smoothly from globally ?80?km to ?10?km in a focal region in the North Atlantic. Our results show first, that ICON-O on the nearly uniform grid simulates an ocean circulation that compares well with observations and second, that ICON-O in its telescope configuration is capable of reproducing the dynamics in the focal region over decadal time scales at a fraction of the computational cost of the uniform-grid simulation. The telescopic technique offers an alternative to the established regionalization approaches. It can be used either to resolve local circulation more accurately or to represent local scales that cannot be simulated globally while remaining within a global modeling framework