Predicting Discontinuity in the Decision to Allocate Funds to Credit Memes with a Fokker-Planck Equation Based Model

The model is one theoretical approach within a broader research program that could verify the nonlinear conjectures made to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments, described as memes with the sense of Dawkins, is shown to be of discontinuous nature stemming from a logistic penetration into the behaviour niche. A Fokker-Planck equation description results in a stationary solution having a bifurcation like the solution with evolution trajectories on a ‘cusp’ type catastrophe that may describe discontinuous decision behaviour.nonlinear models, decision, financial crisis

Considerations on the Reform in the Power Sector (Avoiding Chaos on the Path to an Optimal Market Structure)

The reform of a single player power sector (i.e. a natural monopoly) into a multiple-players power market brings to the clients not only the benefits of competition but also the costs of complexity. In between the two, an optimal number of players is found, corresponding to the minimum price of power to the clients. Considering time as the third dimension, the optimum curve becomes a potential surface on which the evolution of the market entities is seen as oscillations (mergers and unbundling) along the valley of the minimum price. Every oscillation triggers a price burst, which is detrimental to the clients. To avoid this, the role of the regulator is better defined in the sense of smoothing the transition from monopoly to market. The example of the US and of the EU power sectors evolution is relevant here. In the above approach, long range competition resulting from the future opening of power markets in Europe, or from the penetration, 70 years ago, of the interconnection technology in USA, is compared with the short range (local) competition. Finally, the price limits are determined, which ensure that (i) the new entrants on the market are not eliminated and (ii) the market avoids oscillations (chaotic behavior), which may drastically shock a non-resilient economy. A case study calculation is made for a transition economy (Romania).unbundling power monopoly, deterministic chaos, power markets, optimization

Non-linear effects in knowledge production

The generation of technological knowledge is paramount to our present development. Economic science concentrates on representing the functions of production applied to all sectors, e.g., the well known Cobb-Douglas model, associated with parameters such as capital and labor. Based on the paradigm, demonstrated in another paper, that the production of technological knowledge is governed by the same Cobb-Douglas type model, by the means of research and the intelligence level replacing capital, respectively labor, we are exploring the basic behavior of present days economies that are producing technological knowledge, along with the 'usual' industrial production. Considering the intercorrelations of technology and industrial production we determine a basic behavior that turns out to be a 'Henon attractor', well known as one of the first analyzed systems that present chaotic behavior confined to strange attractors. The behavior inside the basin of the attractor's dynamic shows some interesting features such as the fact that too little effort in technological knowledge production is associated to low industrial production, while too much resource allocation to technological production is also reaching an area of low industrial production. This effect clearly shows that too little allocation of resources to research is equivalent to a disproportionate allocation of resources to research, namely that both hamper the industrial production. Moreover, there is an area of large industrial production that corresponds to a certain rate of technology production that, in some way, optimizes development. Measures are introduced for the gain of technological knowledge and the information of technological sequences that are based on the underlying multi-valued logic of the technological research and on nonlinear thermodynamic considerations. We have witnessed in the last decades several cases of economies, e.g., Ireland and Finland, in Europe, the Asian tigers and China in Asia, which had had a moment in their history when research (both means and intelligence) was a main priority. Luckily, the globalization acted as a stabilizer that kept them close to the optimum of 'As High As Reasonably Acceptable' technological production. By contrast to ALARA (as low as reasonably acceptable) principle, that applies in risk analysis, here we may introduce the AHARA principle resulting from the nonlinear behavior of technological production vs. industrial production.knowledge management, strange attractors, experimental state of knowledge

Nonlinear Considerations on Economic Systems’ Behaviour

Recent work done within the CNCSIS IDEI ID_1046 financed project has resulted in some ideas related to complex system behaviour and to certain ways in which this behaviour may be described using nonlinear models especially in relation to the evolution of the PIB and its components. We are presenting here some of these results and the way an oscillatory response in industrial production may be used to determine the associated differential equation of evolution.nonlinear models, decision, financial crisis

SECOND ORDER DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC CYCLES

The monthly data of the industrial production in Romania after the structural discontinuity occurring at the end of 1989 show an under-damped oscillatory behavior that suggests an evolution of second order systems excited by a step function. Since this behavior is well described in control systems we are doing what the literature usually calls a reversed engineering of the data in order to identify the specific parameters for the economic cycle of industrial production. The final goal is to determine the second order differential equation that may be associated to the economic process related to industrial production evolution. This paper is a first contribution that opens an alternative approach to describe the economic dynamics.business cycles, simulations, nonlinear methods, transition economies, mathematical methods

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES AND HAZARD RISKS (CASE ANALYSIS – NATURAL GAS NETWORKS OF ITALY AND ROMANIA)

The interconnection of critical infrastructures represents one of the pillars of the EU Energy and climate change strategy at the horizon of 2030. The risks associated with these networks should be analysed based on the geographical distribution of each network by contrast to local objectives such as nuclear power plants or dams. Based on distributed hazard risks evaluation done for Italy’s regions in case of seismic and landslide and for Romania’s counties in case of flood, drought, snow and freeze and on the risks of mechanical failure with gas escape and ignition, the risk map is determined for each country measured in probable deaths per million inhabitants. These results may provide the needed information for optimizing the allocation of mitigation means and for implementing efficient insurance policies

Sensing Characteristics of Flame-Spray-Made Pt/ZnO Thick Films as H2 Gas Sensor

Hydrogen sensing of thick films of nanoparticles of pristine, 0.2, 1.0 and 2.0 atomic percentage of Pt concentration doped ZnO were investigated. ZnO nanoparticles doped with 0.2–2.0 at.% Pt were successfully produced in a single step by flame spray pyrolysis (FSP) technique using zinc naphthenate and platinum(II) acetylacetonate as precursors dissolved in xylene. The particle properties were analyzed by XRD, BET, SEM and TEM. Under the 5/5 (precursor/oxygen) flame condition, ZnO nanoparticles and nanorods were observed. The crystallite sizes of ZnO spheroidal and hexagonal particles were found to be ranging from 5 to 20 nm while ZnO nanorods were seen to be 5–20 nm wide and 20–40 nm long. ZnO nanoparticles paste composed of ethyl cellulose and terpineol as binder and solvent respectively was coated on Al2O3 substrate interdigitated with gold electrodes to form thin films by spin coating technique. The thin film morphology was analyzed by SEM technique. The gas sensing properties toward hydrogen (H2) was found that the 0.2 at.% Pt/ZnO sensing film showed an optimum H2 sensitivity of ∼164 at hydrogen concentration in air of 1 volume% at 300 °C and a low hydrogen detection limit of 50 ppm at 300 °C operating temperature

Synthèse de vues et reconstruction de vues à partir de vidéos compressées multi-vues et multi-sources

Nowadays, videos are the most demanded form of multimedia. This high interest fueled a continuous evolution of display, transmission and compression technologies. Furthermore,there is also a lot of interest in finding the best way to provide a so-called immersive multimedia experience. Several solutions were investigated over the past years and the Multi-View video plus Depth format was found to provide a promising solution in combination with viewsynthesis algorithms. In this thesis we explore several topics related to view synthesis and view reconstruction.First, we explore the use of temporal correlations in combination with the traditional Depth-Image-Based-Rendering techniques and propose several approaches to tackle common problems in DIBR type algorithms which are shown to improve the quality of the synthesis. As view synthesis algorithms produce localized high distortions, we also evaluate the effectiveness of common quality evaluation metrics and propose a targeted Region-Of-Interest evaluation. Finally, we investigate the problem of multi-source video reconstruction and propose a model based framework that uses primal-dual splitting proximal convex optimization algorithms to enhance the quality and resolution of videos from multiple sources with possibly different resolutions and compression levels.De nos jours, les vidéos sont la forme de multimédia la plus demandée. Ce grand intérêt a alimenté une évolution continue des technologies d’affichage, de transmission et de compression vidéo. Également, il y a aussi beaucoup d’intérêt à trouver le meilleur moyen d’offrir une expérience multimédia dite immersive. Plusieurs solutions ont été étudiées au cours des dernières années et le format vidéo multi-vues plus profondeur a été trouvé pour fournir une solution prometteuse en combinaison avec des algorithmes de synthèse visuelle. Dans cette thèse, nous explorons plusieurs sujets liés à la synthèse et à la reconstruction des vues. Tout d’abord, nous explorons l’utilisation des corrélations temporelles en combinaison avec les techniques traditionnelles de rendu basé sur la profondeur d’image et proposons plusieurs approches pour aborder les problèmes communs des algorithmes de ce type qui sont démontrés pour améliorer la qualité de la synthèse. Comme les algorithmes de synthèse de vues produisent des distorsions localisées élevées, nous évaluons également l’efficacité des mesures d’évaluation de qualité courantes et proposons une évaluation ciblée sur la région d’intérêt. Enfin, nous étudions le problème de la reconstruction vidéo multisource et proposons un modèle de reconstruction qui utilise des algorithmes proximaux primal-dual d’optimisation convexes pour améliorer la qualité et la résolution des vidéos provenant de sources multiples avec des résolutions et des niveaux de compression éventuellement différents

The nonlinear GDP dynamics

The oscillatory behavior of GDP and its components leads to a Fourier transform analysis that results in the eigen values of the dynamic economic system. The larger values are dominating the transient behavior of the GDP components and these transients are discussed along with the specific behavior of each component. The second order differential equations are determined, for each component, to describe the oscillatory behavior and the transient resulting from a step excitation. The natural frequencies are determined and the correlation of pairs of components’ cycles result in ‘beats’ process where the modulated wave cycles are compared and discussed. Based on these correlated influence terms the solutions of the differential equations of each component are determined along with their evolution in the phase space and with the specific Lagrangian. The possible occurrence of dynamical behavior basins for GDP is explored, associated to time interval least action considerations. Important conclusions are drawn from this analysis on the dynamics of GDP and its components, in terms of general versus local equilibriums and their evolution