Equilibrium dynamics under lump-sum taxation in an exchange economy with skewed endowments

I explore the dynamics in overlapping generations models with pure exchange and lump-sum taxes, when the second period after tax endowment is negative, and contrast the characteristics of equilibria to those of models with positive after tax endowments. In particular, if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is less than unity, there can be only a two cycle or stable (ie indeterminate) equilibria for certain parameter values. With this value for that elasticity chaos and a cycle of any order can occur in a model with regular endowments. In a sense the lump-sum taxation in this model operates as a stabilizing device. The precise stability condition holds with a small discount factor and in economies with relatively high taxes in the first period. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is greater than unity, the steady state equilibria are unstable, and thus determinate, as is the case with the regular model.overlapping generations economy; saving; cycles; lump-sum taxation

The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy

We study the effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy in overlapping generations models with government debt and a pay-as-you-go pension system. The smaller the population growth rate, the lower the maximum sustainable level of deficits. When the utility function is of a specific form, an increase in the payroll tax rate and the replacement rate decreases the level of maximum sustainable deficits; except in the case when pension depends on the wage level prevailing during the working period. The ratio of the deficits in two economies with different population growth rates is characterized with numerical examples.aging; pensions; overlapping generations; fiscal policy

Stability and Dynamics in an Overlapping Generations Economy under Flexible Wage Negotiation and Capital Accumulation

We analyze the stability and dynamics of an overlapping generations model under imperfectly competitive labour markets without population growth and with perfect foresight. Under right-to-manage wage bargaining we assume that wage is negotiated after the decision on the capital stock. With Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions the steady state is unique and the steady state capital stock depends on the trade union’s bargaining power. This is because higher bargaining power of the trade union will induce workers to save more thus boosting the capital stock, ceteris paribus. Finally, we show that the steady state equilibrium is a saddle point.overlapping generations economy, capital accumulation, flexible wage negotiation, stability and dynamics

Stabilizing Competitive Cycles with Distortionary Taxation

We utilize a simple overlapping generations model with a balanced budget rule to study the effect of distortionary taxation on cycles and local stability of equilibria. We show that under proportional taxation there is a critical tax rate above which cycles will vanish, while in the case of linearly progressive taxation there is a critical level of exemption below which cycles will vanish as well. Hence, a sufficiently high tax rate and a low tax progression eliminate cycles. If the lifetime utility function is quasi-linear, increasing the tax rate can cause the economy to become locally unstable both with proportional and linearly progressive taxation so that tax exemption does not matter. Finally, if the lifetime utility function is not quasi-linear, for small tax rates an increase in progression can locally destabilize the economy.overlapping generations, cycles, stabilizing taxation

The Effects of the Size of the Public Sector on Fertility

We construct a simple exchange economy overlapping generations model in which there are along with a public social security various private insurance schemes to explore fertility and the effects of various variables on it. In the private system parents can invest in children and benefit from their support (care and income support) in the old age. An introduction of the public system will lower the incentive to have children, i.e. the fertility will be lower. This is an important negative externality of public pension system. We test some of the model's basic implications using long historical panel data from 11 countries for the period 1750-1995. In addition, two other data sets, the WDI (World Bank) and MZES (Manheim University) are used to reinforce the empirical results that are obtained with historical data. These analyses show that, opposite to common beliefs, there is a positive relationship between ageing and fertility if we control for the key determinants of fertility (size of the public sector, level of income, education and infant mortality). By contrast there is a strong negative relationship between the size of the public sector and fertility. The same is true in terms of income and education while the fertility effect of infant mortality is clearly positive.fertility, pensions, overlapping generations

Saddles, Indeterminacy and Bifurcations in an Overlapping Generations Economy with a Renewable Resource

We incorporate a renewable resource into an overlapping generations model with standard, well-behaved utility and constant returns to scale production functions. Besides being a factor of production the resource serves as a store of value. We characterize dynamics, efficiency and stability of steady state equilibria and show that the nature of steady state equilibrium depends on the value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption. In particular, if that elasticity is at least half, but not exactly one, stationary equilibria are saddle points. The stationary equilibrium is stable when the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is unity. For smaller values of that elasticity we use a parametric example to demonstrate the existence of stable equilibria (indeterminacy) and a subcritical flip bifurcation. Hence, an overlapping generations economy with a renewable resource can display cycles and indeterminacy even in the absence of externalities or imperfect competition.Overlapping generations, renewable resources, bifurcations

Saddles, Indeterminacy and Bifurcations in an Overlapping Generations Economy with a Renewable Resource

No abstract.

Patience Cycles

Evidence supports the notion that those who grow up to be patient dobetter than those who do not. Parents can inculcate the virtue of delayedgratiÂ…cation in their children by taking the right actions. We study a modelin which parents, for selÂ…sh reasons, invest resources to raise patient chil-dren. In the model, patience raises the marginal return to human capitalacquisition giving the patient young an incentive to spend more on theirown education at the expense of investment in their own progenyÂ’s patience.This dynamic generates intergenerational patience cycles.patience; delayed gratification; human capital

Religious Faith and Rationalism in Terry Pratchett's Small Gods

This thesis examines the treatment of institutional religion, religious faith and believers in Terry Pratchett’s Small Gods arguing that the novel calls for transparency and fairness in religious institutions and critical thinking, understanding and tolerance from those with a belief system. The novel highlights these issues through the relationship between its main character, Brutha, and his god, Om, as they explore the world beyond the theocratic nation of Omnia. Their interactions with one another and the world at large are analysed with the help of fantasy and satire as well as real world equivalents for the ideas, ideologies and religions presented. Small Gods uses both religious and political satire in its efforts to criticise religion. In its political satire, the novel highlights the dangers of the intertwining of religion, state, and law enforcement, and questions religious expansion and censorship for power’s sake. Its religious satire, on the other hand, is more interested in religious figures, ideas and texts as it ridicules extremism within such institutions. These two types of satire are irrevocably linked to one another within the novel as those seeking political power do so through religious means. They are also used to highlight the individuals inside these outwardly dangerous institutions and show the conditions in which they practice their faith. By showing different individuals within these institutions, Small Gods highlights a need for compassion and understanding in our discussions with individuals who choose to believe differently from us. It also reminds readers that they should not believe in something blindly, but rather criticise and question what they are told in order to keep themselves and others honest and safe. In the end, Pratchett’s satire is a soft but effective call for critical thinking, understanding and separation of religious and political aims. It also shows that everything made by humans will have its own faults because its creators are not perfect but this does not make all human-made things evil. On the contrary, most of the human-made religions, ideologies, scientific discoveries and political institutions in Small Gods were initially trying to make human lives easier and to provide society with rules and certainty. Therefore, this thesis argues that Small Gods is not an antireligious novel but rather a novel about critical thinking

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection in Finland

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most common congenital infection in developed countries. Only about 10% of the infected infants have symptoms due to CMV at birth. About half of these symptomatic infants will develop long-term sequelae, such as hearing loss or neurological impairment. Most congenitally infected infants are asymptomatic, and their prognosis is clearly better. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to evaluate the burden of congenital CMV infection (cCMV) in Finland. In the first study, we evaluated the CMV seroprevalence in Finland. We examined CMV antibodies of 200 randomly collected samples from the Finnish Maternity Cohort serum bank at three time points: 1992, 2002, and 2012. The seropositivity rate decreased significantly from 84.5% (95% CI 78.7–89.2) in 1992 to 71.5% (95% CI 64.7–77.6) in 2012. The outcome of symptomatic cCMV infection was evaluated retrospectively from a cohort of 26 children diagnosed in Finnish tertiary hospitals from 2000 to 2012. Long-term sequelae occurred in 58% (15/26), neurologic abnormality in 50% (12/24), and hearing loss in 42% (8/19) of the children. Of the children whose mothers had suffered from primary CMV infections in the first trimester, 86% (6/7) developed long-term sequelae. Of the children whose mothers had experienced non-primary CMV infections during the pregnancy, 64% (9/14) developed long-term sequelae. None of the 5 children whose mothers had had primary CMV infections in the second or third trimester had developed any long-term sequelae. To evaluate the prevalence of cCMV, and the outcome of asymptomatic cCMV, we screened 19,868 infants with a saliva CMV PCR test in four Helsinki area hospitals from September 2012 to January 2015. Confirmed cCMV infection occurred in 40 children, corresponding to a prevalence of 2 in 1,000 (95% CI 1.4–2.6). No differences in the Griffiths Mental Development Scales or hearing outcome could be found between cCMV positive and healthy controls at 18 months age. In addition, no CMV-related findings were detected in the ophthalmologic examinations. Among cCMV positive children, viral shedding to urine was more persistent than to saliva. At 18 months age all urine samples tested (33/33) were positive for CMV culture, but only 24% (9/37) saliva samples had positive CMV PCR. In conclusion, the disease burden of cCMV was relatively low in Finland. The prevalence was only 2 in 1,000, and the outcome of the asymptomatic infants was favourable. However, the morbidity of the symptomatic infection was remarkable. Over half of the infants from the retrospective cohort with CMV-related symptoms at birth developed long-term sequelae. In the positive screening samples, the genotype distribution for CMV glycoproteins gB, gH, and gN was similar to that reported from other populations and does not therefore explain the low burden of the disease in Finland.Sytomegalovirus (CMV) on yleisin sikiöaikainen infektio. Vain noin 10%:lla sikiöaikana CMV-infektion sairastaneista lapsista on syntyessään oireita kuten kasvuhäiriö, pienipäisyys, verenkuva- tai ihomuutokset tai poikkeava maksan tai pernan koko. Noin puolelle heistä jää jokin pitkäaikaishaitta, kuten kuulovaurio tai neurologinen vamma. Valtaosa sikiöaikana infektoituneista lapsista on kuitenkin syntyessään oireettomia ja heidän ennusteensa on selvästi parempi. Tässä väitöskirjatutkimuksessa selvitimme synnynnäisen CMV-infektion (cCMV) aiheuttamaa tautitaakkaa Suomessa. CMV-infektion yleisyys väestöissä vaihtelee. Seerumipankkinäytteistä totesimme, että Suomessa vuonna 1992 raskaana olevista naisista 84,5% oli sairastanut CMV ensi-infektion jo ennen raskautta, kun osuus vuonna 2012 oli pienentynyt 71,5%:iin. Oireisen CMV-infektion ennustetta selvitimme takautuvasti potilaspapereista kaikista Suomen yliopistosairaaloista. Lapsista, joilla oli vuosina 2000–2012 diagnosoitu oireinen cCMV, yli puolet (58%,15/26) kärsi jostain pitkäaikaispulmasta, 50%:lla (12/24) oli neurologinen poikkeavuus ja 42%:lla (8/19) kuulovaurio. Pitkäaikaispulmia esiintyi valtaosalla (86%, 6/7) lapsista, joiden äiti oli sairastanut CMV ensi-infektion raskauden alkuvaiheessa. Poikkeavuuksia esiintyi myös lapsilla, joiden äidin CMV ensi-infektio oli tapahtunut jo ennen tätä raskautta (64%, 9/14), muttei kenelläkään niistä 5 lapsesta, joiden äidin ensi-infektio oli ollut raskauden ensimmäisen kolmanneksen jälkeen. Synnynnäisen CMV-infektion esiintyvyyttä ja syntyessään oireettomien lasten ennustetta selvitimme seulomalla 19 868 vastasyntynyttä syljestä otettavalla CMV-nukleiinihapon osoitustestillä. CMV-infektio todettiin 40:lla lapsella, joten esiintyvyys väestössämme oli 2/1000 (95%CI 1.4-2.6/1000). Seulonnassa löytyneiden CMV-positiivisten lasten ja terveiden verrokkien välillä ei todettu eroa suoriutumisessa Griffithsin kehitysseurantamenetelmän testeissä eikä kuulontutkimuslöydöksissä 18 kuukauden iässä. Kenelläkään ei todettu kuulonkuntoutusta vaativaa kuulovikaa eikä CMV-infektioon liittyviä silmäpoikkeavuuksia. Sikiöaikana sairastetun infektion jälkeen viruseritys virtsaan jatkui 18 kk iässä kaikilla tutkituilla, mutta sylkeen ainoastaan 24%:lla lapsista. CMV-infektion aiheuttama tautitaakka oli Suomessa suhteellisen pieni. Esiintyvyys oli ainoastaan 2/1000 ja oireettomien lasten ennuste oli suotuisa. Oireisen infektion aiheuttama sairastavuus oli kuitenkin huomattavaa. Yli puolella syntyessään oireisista lapsista oli joku pitkäaikaispoikkeavuus. Seulontanäytteissä CMV-virusten genotyyppijakauma glykoproteiinien gB, gH ja gN suhteen ei eronnut kirjallisuudessa kuvatuista muista aineistoista, eikä se siten selitä pientä tautitaakkaamme