Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Something for the weekend? Examining the bias in avian phenological recording

In this paper we examine the bias towards weekend recording (the weekend effect) in volunteer phenology, using over 14,000 bird migration phenological observations from eight locations in the UK as a data source. Data from 45 bird species were used. Overall, 44% of all records were taken at weekends in contrast to the 28.6% (i.e. two out of seven days) that would be expected if records were evenly spread throughout the week. Whilst there is documented evidence of environmental differences at weekends, particularly in large urban areas, we believe the weekend effect is mostly a consequence of greater recorder effort at weekends. Some birds, likely to be obvious by their behaviour or abundance, had fewer weekend records than the remaining species. The weekend effect, to some extent, differed between locations and between seasons. There was some evidence that, particularly in autumn, the weekend bias may be lessening. If so, this will increase the accuracy of phenological records, making the detection of changes and responses to temperature easier