Can the UNAIDS modes of transmission model be improved? A comparison of the original and revised model projections using data from a setting in west Africa.

OBJECTIVE: The UNAIDS modes of transmission model (MoT) is a user-friendly model, developed to predict the distribution of new HIV infections among different subgroups. The model has been used in 29 countries to guide interventions. However, there is the risk that the simplifications inherent in the MoT produce misleading findings. Using input data from Nigeria, we compare projections from the MoT with those from a revised model that incorporates additional heterogeneity. METHODS: We revised the MoT to explicitly incorporate brothel and street-based sex-work, transactional sex, and HIV-discordant couples. Both models were parameterized using behavioural and epidemiological data from Cross River State, Nigeria. Model projections were compared, and the robustness of the revised model projections to different model assumptions, was investigated. RESULTS: The original MoT predicts 21% of new infections occur in most-at-risk-populations (MARPs), compared with 45% (40-75%, 95% Crl) once additional heterogeneity and updated parameterization is incorporated. Discordant couples, a subgroup previously not explicitly modelled, are predicted to contribute a third of new HIV infections. In addition, the new findings suggest that women engaging in transactional sex may be an important but previously less recognized risk group, with 16% of infections occurring in this subgroup. CONCLUSION: The MoT is an accessible model that can inform intervention priorities. However, the current model may be potentially misleading, with our comparisons in Nigeria suggesting that the model lacks resolution, making it challenging for the user to correctly interpret the nature of the epidemic. Our findings highlight the need for a formal review of the MoT

Can mother-to-child transmission of HIV be eliminated without addressing the issue of stigma? Modeling the case for a setting in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Stigma and discrimination ontinue to undermine the effectiveness of the HIV response. Despite a growing body of evidence of the negative relationship between stigma and HIV outcomes, there is a paucity of data available on the prevalence of stigma and its impact. We present a probabilistic cascade model to estimate the magnitude of impact stigma has on mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT). METHODS: The model was parameterized using 2010 data from Johannesburg, South Africa, from which loss-to-care at each stage of the antenatal cascade were available. Three scenarios were compared to assess the individual contributions of stigma, non-stigma related barriers, and drug ineffectiveness on the overall number of infant infections. Uncertainty analysis was used to estimate plausible ranges. The model follows the guidelines in place in 2010 when the data were extracted (WHO Option A), and compares this with model results had Option B+ been implemented at the time. RESULTS: The model estimated under Option A, 35% of infant infections being attributed to stigma. This compares to 51% of total infections had Option B+ been implemented in 2010. Under Option B+, the model estimated fewer infections than Option A, due to the availability of more effective drugs. Only 8% (Option A) and 9% (Option B+) of infant infections were attributed to drug ineffectiveness, with the trade-off in the proportion of infections being between stigma and non-stigma-related barriers. CONCLUSIONS: The model demonstrates that while the effect of stigma on retention of women at any given stage along the cascade can be relatively small, the cumulative effect can be large. Reducing stigma may be critical in reaching MTCT elimination targets, because as countries improve supply-side factors, the relative impact of stigma becomes greater. The cumulative nature of the PMTCT cascade results in stigma having a large effect, this feature may be harnessed for efficiency in investment by prioritizing interventions that can affect multiple stages of the cascade simultaneously

Slx8 removes Pli1-dependent protein-SUMO conjugates including SUMOylated Topoisomerase I to promote genome stability

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

SUMO chain formation is required for response to replication arrest in S. pombe

SUMO is a ubiquitin-like protein that is post-translationally attached to one or more lysine residues on target proteins. Despite having only 18% sequence identity with ubiquitin, SUMO contains the conserved betabetaalphabetabetaalphabeta fold present in ubiquitin. However, SUMO differs from ubiquitin in having an extended N-terminus. In S. pombe the N-terminus of SUMO/Pmt3 is significantly longer than those of SUMO in S. cerevisiae, human and Drosophila. Here we investigate the role of this N-terminal region. We have used two dimensional gel electrophoresis to demonstrate that S. pombe SUMO/Pmt3 is phosphorylated, and that this occurs on serine residues at the extreme N-terminus of the protein. Mutation of these residues (in pmt3-1) results in a dramatic reduction in both the levels of high Mr SUMO-containing species and of total SUMO/Pmt3, indicating that phosphorylation of SUMO/Pmt3 is required for its stability. Despite the significant reduction in high Mr SUMO-containing species, pmt3-1 cells do not display an aberrant cell morphology or sensitivity to genotoxins or stress. Additionally, we demonstrate that two lysine residues in the N-terminus of S. pombe SUMO/Pmt3 (K14 and K30) can act as acceptor sites for SUMO chain formation in vitro. Inability to form SUMO chains results in aberrant cell and nuclear morphologies, including stretched and fragmented chromatin. SUMO chain mutants are sensitive to the DNA synthesis inhibitor, hydroxyurea (HU), but not to other genotoxins, such as UV, MMS or CPT. This implies a role for SUMO chains in the response to replication arrest in S. pomb

Structural insight into SUMO chain recognition and manipulation by the ubiquitin ligase RNF4

The small ubiquitin-like modifier (SUMO) can form polymeric chains that are important signals in cellular processes such as meiosis, genome maintenance and stress response. The SUMO-targeted ubiquitin ligase RNF4 engages with SUMO chains on linked substrates and catalyses their ubiquitination, which targets substrates for proteasomal degradation. Here we use a segmental labelling approach combined with solution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and biochemical characterization to reveal how RNF4 manipulates the conformation of the SUMO chain, thereby facilitating optimal delivery of the distal SUMO domain for ubiquitin transfer

Factors Associated with Variations in Population HIV Prevalence across West Africa: Findings from an Ecological Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Population HIV prevalence across West Africa varies substantially. We assess the national epidemiological and behavioural factors associated with this. METHODS: National, urban and rural data on HIV prevalence, the percentage of younger (15-24) and older (25-49) women and men reporting multiple (2+) partners in the past year, HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs), men who have bought sex in the past year (clients), and ART coverage, were compiled for 13 countries. An Ecological analysis using linear regression assessed which factors are associated with national variations in population female and male HIV prevalence, and with each other. FINDINGS: National population HIV prevalence varies between 0 4-2 9% for men and 0 4-5.6% for women. ART coverage ranges from 6-23%. National variations in HIV prevalence are not shown to be associated with variations in HIV prevalence among FSWs or clients. Instead they are associated with variations in the percentage of younger and older males and females reporting multiple partners. HIV prevalence is weakly negatively associated with ART coverage, implying it is not increased survival that is the cause of variations in HIV prevalence. FSWs and younger female HIV prevalence are associated with client population sizes, especially older men. Younger female HIV prevalence is strongly associated with older male and female HIV prevalence. INTERPRETATION: In West Africa, population HIV prevalence is not significantly higher in countries with high FSW HIV prevalence. Our analysis suggests, higher prevalence occurs where more men buy sex, and where a higher percentage of younger women, and older men and women have multiple partnerships. If a sexual network between clients and young females exists, clients may potentially bridge infection to younger females. HIV prevention should focus both on commercial sex and transmission between clients and younger females with multiple partners

Who mixes with whom among men who have sex with men? Implications for modelling the HIV epidemic in southern India

In India, the identity of men who have sex with men (MSM) is closely related to the role taken in anal sex (insertive, receptive or both), but little is known about sexual mixing between identity groups. Both role segregation (taking only the insertive or receptive role) and the extent of assortative (within-group) mixing are known to affect HIV epidemic size in other settings and populations. This study explores how different possible mixing scenarios, consistent with behavioural data collected in Bangalore, south India, affect both the HIV epidemic, and the impact of a targeted intervention. Deterministic models describing HIV transmission between three MSM identity groups (mostly insertive Panthis/Bisexuals, mostly receptive Kothis/Hijras and versatile Double Deckers), were parameterised with behavioural data from Bangalore. We extended previous models of MSM role segregation to allow each of the identity groups to have both insertive and receptive acts, in differing ratios, in line with field data. The models were used to explore four different mixing scenarios ranging from assortative (maximising within-group mixing) to disassortative (minimising within-group mixing). A simple model was used to obtain insights into the relationship between the degree of within-group mixing, R0 and equilibrium HIV prevalence under different mixing scenarios. A more complex, extended version of the model was used to compare the predicted HIV prevalence trends and impact of an HIV intervention when fitted to data from Bangalore. With the simple model, mixing scenarios with increased amounts of assortative (within-group) mixing tended to give rise to a higher R0 and increased the likelihood that an epidemic would occur. When the complex model was fit to HIV prevalence data, large differences in the level of assortative mixing were seen between the fits identified using different mixing scenarios, but little difference was projected in future HIV prevalence trends. An oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention was modelled, targeted at the different identity groups. For intervention strategies targeting the receptive or receptive and versatile MSM together, the overall impact was very similar for different mixing patterns. However, for PrEP scenarios targeting insertive or versatile MSM alone, the overall impact varied considerably for different mixing scenarios; more impact was achieved with greater levels of disassortative mixing

SUMO-Targeted Ubiquitin Ligase, Rad60, and Nse2 SUMO Ligase Suppress Spontaneous Top1–Mediated DNA Damage and Genome Instability

Through as yet undefined proteins and pathways, the SUMO-targeted ubiquitin ligase (STUbL) suppresses genomic instability by ubiquitinating SUMO conjugated proteins and driving their proteasomal destruction. Here, we identify a critical function for fission yeast STUbL in suppressing spontaneous and chemically induced topoisomerase I (Top1)–mediated DNA damage. Strikingly, cells with reduced STUbL activity are dependent on tyrosyl–DNA phosphodiesterase 1 (Tdp1). This is notable, as cells lacking Tdp1 are largely aphenotypic in the vegetative cell cycle due to the existence of alternative pathways for the removal of covalent Top1–DNA adducts (Top1cc). We further identify Rad60, a SUMO mimetic and STUbL-interacting protein, and the SUMO E3 ligase Nse2 as critical Top1cc repair factors in cells lacking Tdp1. Detection of Top1ccs using chromatin immunoprecipitation and quantitative PCR shows that they are elevated in cells lacking Tdp1 and STUbL, Rad60, or Nse2 SUMO ligase activity. These unrepaired Top1ccs are shown to cause DNA damage, hyper-recombination, and checkpoint-mediated cell cycle arrest. We further determine that Tdp1 and the nucleotide excision repair endonuclease Rad16-Swi10 initiate the major Top1cc repair pathways of fission yeast. Tdp1-based repair is the predominant activity outside S phase, likely acting on transcription-coupled Top1cc. Epistasis analyses suggest that STUbL, Rad60, and Nse2 facilitate the Rad16-Swi10 pathway, parallel to Tdp1. Collectively, these results reveal a unified role for STUbL, Rad60, and Nse2 in protecting genome stability against spontaneous Top1-mediated DNA damage

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS: We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the$/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia:$1425, India: $1489, Vietnam:$1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from$237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to$749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to$241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization