Assessing the effects of the first 2 years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013–2015

Culling badgers to control the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) between this wildlife reservoir and cattle has been widely debated. Industry-led culling began in Somerset and Gloucestershire between August and November 2013 to reduce local badger populations. Industry-led culling is not designed to be a randomised and controlled trial of the impact of culling on cattle incidence. Nevertheless, it is important to monitor the effects of the culling and, taking the study limitations into account, perform a cautious evaluation of the impacts. A standardised method for selecting areas matched to culling areas in factors found to affect cattle TB risk has been developed to evaluate the impact of badger culling on cattle TB incidence. The association between cattle TB incidence and badger culling in the first two years has been assessed. Descriptive analyses without controlling for confounding showed no association between culling and TB incidence for Somerset, or for either of the buffer areas for the first two years since culling began. A weak association was observed in Gloucestershire for Year 1 only. Multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors showed that reductions in TB incidence were associated with culling in the first two years in both the Somerset and Gloucestershire intervention areas when compared to areas with no culling (IRR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.72-0.87, p<0.001 and IRR: 0.42, 95%CI: 0.34-0.51, p<0.001 respectively). An increase in incidence was associated with culling in the 2 km buffer surrounding the Somerset intervention area (IRR: 1.38, 95%CI: 1.09-1.75, p=0.008), but not in Gloucestershire (IRR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.77-1.07, p=0.243). As only two intervention areas with two years’ of data are available for analysis, and the biological cause-effect relationship behind the statistical associations is difficult to determine, it would be unwise to use these findings to develop generalisable inferences about the effectiveness of the policy at present

Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of "sequential maximum-confidence" (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. Published versio

Diagnosis and treatment of subclinical mastitis in early lactation in dairy goats

The objectives of the study were to define the sensitivity and specificity of the California Mastitis Test (CMT) in determining the presence of intramammary infection in postpartum dairy goats and to determine whether antibiotic therapy increased bacteriological cure rate and lowered somatic cell count (SCC) compared with untreated controls. A CMT was performed and milk samples were collected for bacteriology from 211 glands of 106 does between 0 and 10 d after kidding. From a population of 3,239 glands from goats in 4 commercial herds; goats with one or both glands with a CMT score of >1 and from which bacteria were isolated were either assigned to be treated with 3 intramammary infusions at 12-h intervals of 75 mg of sodium ampicillin and 250 mg of sodium cloxacillin (n = 57 glands) or left as untreated controls (n = 49 glands). Milk samples were collected again 14 +/- 3 and 21 +/- 3 d later for bacteriology and SCC determination. Composite milk yield, goat SCC, length of lactation, and survival data were collected. A partial budget was constructed to assess the cost effectiveness of treatment. At a cut point of greater than trace, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the CMT were 0.74, 0.74, 0.42, and 0.92, respectively. Treatment increased the bacteriological cure rate compared with no treatment [30/57 (53%) vs. 6/49 (12%)], but there was a pathogen by treatment interaction whereby treatment increased cure proportion in glands infected with minor, but not major, pathogens. Treatment reduced the foremilk gland-level SCC [1,595 (95% CI = 1,106-2,300) vs. 3,028 (95% CI = 2,091-4,385) geometric mean (x 1,000) cells/mL] but not the SCC at goat level [1,596 (95% CI = 1,219-2,090) vs. 1,488 (95% CI = 1,132-1,955) geometric mean (x 1,000) cells/mL] compared with no treatment. Milk yield, risk of removal from the herd; and length of lactation were not altered by treatment. Treatment resulted in a loss of NZ$20.39/doe. It was concluded that use of the CMT as a screening test resulted in a higher likelihood of finding a gland that would be infected than selecting a gland at random. Treatment increased bacteriological cure rate and reduced SCC at gland level compared with no treatment. However; at goat level, milk yield, SCC, and survival were not altered, resulting in no economic benefit of treatment

Optical Fiber Distributed Sensing Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Strain Measurements Taken During Cryotank Y-Joint Test Article Load Cycling at Liquid Helium Temperatures

This paper outlines cryogenic Y-joint testing at Langley Research Center (LaRC) to validate the performance of optical fiber Bragg grating strain sensors for measuring strain at liquid helium temperature (-240 C). This testing also verified survivability of fiber sensors after experiencing 10 thermal cool-down, warm-up cycles and 400 limit load cycles. Graphite composite skins bonded to a honeycomb substrate in a sandwich configuration comprised the Y-joint specimens. To enable SHM of composite cryotanks for consideration to future spacecraft, a light-weight, durable monitoring technology is needed. The fiber optic distributed Bragg grating strain sensing system developed at LaRC is a viable substitute for conventional strain gauges which are not practical for SHM. This distributed sensing technology uses an Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometer (OFDR). This measurement approach has the advantage that it can measure hundreds of Bragg grating sensors per fiber and the sensors are all written at one frequency, greatly simplifying fiber manufacturing. Fiber optic strain measurements compared well to conventional strain gauge measurements obtained during these tests. These results demonstrated a high potential for a successful implementation of a SHM system incorporating LaRC's fiber optic sensing system on the composite cryotank and other future cryogenic applications

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account