Exploring potential 'extra-familial' child homicide assailants in the UK and estimating their homicide rate: perception of risk – the need for debate

High-profile child murders lead parents to fear for their children’s safety, but perception of risk is often at variance with reality. We explore the numbers of potential ‘Extra-familial’ child homicide assailants in the United Kingdom and estimate their actual murder rate to determine risk levels. A South of England study, equivalent to a 4 per cent sample of the UK population, of a decade of consecutive child homicides identified the characteristics of child homicide assailants, finding that the most frequent assailants--the ‘Intra-familial’--were very different from ‘Extra-familial’ assailants. ‘Extra-familial’ killers were all males, aged nineteen to forty-two, with convictions for Violent-Multi-Criminal-Child-Sex-Abuse (VMCCSA) offences and Multi-Criminal-Child-Sex-Abuse (MCCSA), whose victims were aged seven-plus years. Projecting these characteristics onto the male UK population enables us to estimate the numbers of potential UK ‘Extra-familial’ assailants, which are set against known UK child (five to fourteen) homicides (WHO, 2005). To account for any ‘hidden’ child homicides, deaths in the ‘undetermined’ violent death category, designated ‘Other External Cause’ (OEC), are calculated to provide a ‘maximum’ child homicide rate. There were potentially 912 VMCCSA and 886 MCCSA ‘Extra-familial’ offenders in the United Kingdom, who could be responsible for the WHO-reported UK three-year average of ‘Extra-family’ fifteen child homicide and seventeen OEC deaths per annum; a homicide rate of 12,061 per million (pm) for VMCCSA and 3,386 pm for MCSA, which is 1.21 and 0.34 per cent; however, the VMCCSA homicide rate was 403 times greater than the all children accident and cancer death rates. Though the vast majority of these potential assailants did not kill, comparatively, they are extremely dangerous. Practice and ethical issues are debated, which considers active outreach for the ‘treatable’ to possible ‘reviewable’ custodial sentences for the VMCCSA

Suicide and Undetermined Deaths among Youths and Young Adults in Latin America: Comparison with the 10 Major Developed Countries - A source of hidden suicides?

In Latin American (LA) and the major developed countries’ (MDC) suicide and undetermined deaths are analyzed as methods of suicide and the number of undetermined deaths are similar, possibly containing hidden suicides. The goal was to test the likelihood that LA cultural attitudes lead to higher undetermined rates and more hidden suicides. We used 3-year WHO average mortality data to compare LA and MDC mortality by age and gender, and χ² tests to examine any differences. In 13 LA countries younger-aged (15–34) men and women’s suicides were higher than all-age rates, and undetermined deaths exceeded the suicide rates. Nine LA countries had significantly more undetermined younger-aged male deaths than females. Sixteen of 18 LA countries had significantly higher undetermined death rates than the MDC. LA younger-aged malefs24 146s differential suicide: Undetermined rates indicated they may contain substantial numbers of hidden suicides. Inadvertently, cultural attitudes to suicide may hinder prevention

UK and Twenty Comparable Countries GDP-Expenditureon- Health 1980-2013: The Historic and Continued Low Priority of UK Health Related Expenditure

It is well-established that for a considerable period the United Kingdom has spent proportionally less of its gross domestic product (GDP) on health related services than almost any other comparable country. Average European spending on health (as a % of GDP) in the period 1980 to 2013 has been 19% higher than the United Kingdom, indicating that comparable countries give far greater fiscal priority to its health services, irrespective of its actual fiscal value or configuration. While the UK National Health Service (NHS) is a comparatively lean healthcare system, it is often regarded to be at a ‘crisis’ point on account of low levels of funding. Indeed, many state that currently the NHS has a sizeable funding gap, in part due to its recently reduced GDP devoted to health but mainly the challenges around increases in longevity, expectation and new medical costs. The right level of health funding is a political value judgement. As the data in this paper outline, if the UK ‘afforded’ the same proportional level of funding as the mean average European country, total expenditure would currently increase by one-fifth

Comparing GDP Health and Military Expenditure, Poverty and Child Mortality of 71 Countries from Different Regions

Child mortality rates (CMR) indicate how a nation meets the needs of its children, so relative to their region, do some countries ‘neglect’ their children? Using William Penn (1693) statement ‘It\u27s a reproach to religion and government to suffer so much poverty and excess’ to judge nations CMR from three world regions within the context of poverty, health and military gross domestic product (GDP) expenditure data. West (n= 21): USA, New Zealand and Canada are a reproach—Sweden, Japan Finland and Norway are commended. Asia (n= 17]: Pakistan, Myanmar and India are a reproach. Singapore and Thailand commended. Sub‐Saharan Africa (n= 33): Relative to their region, Madagascar and Namibia are commended. Twelve countries failed the United Nations (UN) target, including the relatively rich Nigeria and South Africa. Poverty and higher CMR are linked in all three regions. Relative poverty and military expenditures correlated in the West but not in the other regions. In the pursuit of social justice, societies need to be alerted to the extent of the impact of poverty on child mortality even though some countries will find this challenging

Are rises in Electro-Magnetic Field in the human environment, interacting with multiple environmental pollutions, the tripping point for increases in neurological deaths in the Western World?

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Whilst humans evolved in the earth's Electro-Magnetic-Field (EMF) and sun-light, both being essential to life but too much sun and we burn. What happens if background EMF rise to critical levels, coinciding with increasing environmental pollutants? Two of the authors can look back over 50 clinical years and appreciate the profound changes in human morbidity across a range of disparate conditions – autoimmune diseases, asthma, earlier cancer incidence and reduced male sperm counts. In particular have been increased autism, dyslexia, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and neurological diseases, such as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, Multiple Sclerosis, Parkinson's Disease, Early Onset Dementia, Multiple System Atrophy and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy. What might have caused these changes-whilst genetic factors are taken as given, multiple environmental pollutants are associated with neurological disease although the mechanisms are unclear. The pace of increased neurological deaths far exceeds any Gompertzian explanation - that because people are living longer they are more likely to develop more age-related problems such as neurological disease. Using WHO global mortality categories of Neurological Disease Deaths (NDD) and Alzheimer's and Dementia deaths (Alz), updated June 2018, together they constitute Total Neurological Mortality (TNM), to calculate mortality rates per million for people aged 55–74 and for the over-75's in twenty-one Western countries. Recent increases in American people aged over-75's rose 49% from 1989 to 2015 but US neurological deaths increased five-fold. In 1989 based on Age-Standardised-Deaths-Rates America USA was 17th at 324 pm but rising to 539 pm became second highest. Different environmental/occupational factors have been found to be associated with neuro-degenerative diseases, including background EMF. We briefly explore how levels of EMF interact upon the human body, which can be described as a natural antennae and provide new evidence that builds upon earlier research to propose the following hypothesis. Based upon recent and new evidence we hypothesise that a major contribution for the relative sudden upsurge in neurological morbidity in the Western world (1989–2015), is because of increased background EMF that has become the tipping point-impacting upon any genetic predisposition, increasing multiple-interactive pollutants, such as rises in petro-chemicals, hormone disrupting chemicals, industrial, agricultural and domestic chemicals. The unprecedented neurological death rates, all within just twenty-five years, demand a re-examination of long-term EMF safety related to the increasing background EMF on human health. We do not wish to 'stop the modern world’, only make it safer

Undetermined and accidental mortality rates as possible sources of underreported suicides: population-based study comparing Islamic countries and traditionally religious Western countries.

BACKGROUND: Four Western countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal) with strong Orthodox and Catholic traditions have been associated with the underreporting of death by suicide, and underreported suicides are sometimes found among deaths recorded as 'undetermined' or 'accidental'. AIMS: This population-based study tests whether there are any significant difference in patterns of suicides, undetermined deaths and accidental deaths between these four Western countries and 21 predominately Islamic countries. METHOD: World Health Organization age-standardised death rates per million population were used to compare suicide rates with combined undetermined death and accidental death (UnD+AccD) rates, from which odds ratios were calculated. Substantial odds ratios (OR > 2.0) were taken as indicative of likely underreporting of suicides. The Islamic countries come from four different historico-cultural regions, described as: less-traditional Islamic countries; former USSR countries; Gulf Arab states; and Middle Eastern and North African countries. χ2-tests were used to determine any significant differences between the Western comparator countries and the Islamic regions. RESULTS: For the Western comparator countries, the average suicide rate was 66 per million population, the average undetermined death rate 56 per million and the average accidental death rate 58 per million, yielding a suicide:UnD+AccD odds ratio (OR) of 1.73. The average values for the other three groups were as follows. Less-traditional Islamic countries: suicide rate, 31 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 101 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 3.3. Former USSR countries: suicide rate, 61 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 221 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 3.6. Gulf Arab states: suicide rate, 10 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 76 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 8.6. Middle Eastern and North African countries: suicide rate, 6 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 151 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 25.2. The patterns of these mortalities in the Islamic countries was significantly different from Western comparator countries. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate underreporting of suicides in Islamic countries. This might inadvertently lead to reduced access to mental health preventive services in both Western and Islamic countries

A Population-Based Study Comparing Child (0-4) and Adult (55-74) Mortality, GDP-Expenditure on-Health and Relative Poverty in the UK and Developed Countries 1989-2014. Some Challenging Outcomes

Purpose: To compare the UK Child (0-4) and Adult (55-74) Mortality with twenty developed countries 1989-2014 to explore whether the UK has lower priorities for children? Design: WHO data on Child and Adult mortality examined within context of World Bank %GDPExpenditure-on-Health (%GDPEH) data and Income Inequality i.e Relative poverty. Settings: 21 developed countries. Patients: National populations. Outcome Measures: Child and Adult mortality rates per million (pm) population between 1989-2014. Confi dence Intervals compares UK with other developed countries (ODC); odds ratios of average European to UK mortality calculated. Correlations explore links between mortalities, %GDPEH and Income Inequality. Important Results: Highest average 1980-2014 %GDPEH is USA 12.6%, the lowest UK 7.0%. European average 8.5% a UK to European odds ratio 1:1.21. Widest Income Inequality was USA 15.9 times, UK 13.8 was third, European average 8.5times. Child Mortality fell in every country but eleven signifi cantly better than Britain. Highest was USA 1383pm the UK fourth at 967pm. European average 728pm yielded a European to UK odds ratio of 1:1.33. Income Inequality and CRM signifi cantly correlated (RHO=+0.6188 p<0.001) and lowest Private: Public %GDP ratio and highest CMR (Rho=+0.3805 p<0.05). Adult Mortality fell substantially in every country but UK signifi cantly greater reductions than Seventeen counties. European average 9545pm to UK 10,754pm gave a European to UK odds ratio of 1:1.13. Conclusion: Implications; Britain’s results suggest a higher priority is given to adult health than children. The socio-economic context in which UK Child health operates appears to disadvantage UK children, indicating the need to address income inequalities and at least match European average health funding