Mauritius Case Study: Alternative Histories Since 1962

This Working Paper constitutes Chapter 17 of the book manuscript, "Understanding Population-Development-Environment Interactions: A Case Study on Mauritius". The Mauritius case study was carried out by IIASA in scientific collaboration with the University of Mauritius and funded by the United Nations Population Fund (WNFPA). The paper presents and discusses findings from the interdisciplinary computer model simulating alternative population-development-environment interactions for the historical period 1962 to 1987, a period of rapid change in Mauritius. In a first step, population, economic, and environmental developments during the last 30 years are reconstructed by the PDE-Mauritius model on the basis of observed trends. This reconstructed history, which also evaluates the accuracy of the model itself, is used as a reference to which alternative histories are compared. In subsequent sections, five alternative population histories and nine alternative holistic histories are considered. The role of socio-demographic development, and of the fertility decline in particular, is compared to the importance of the economic boom for the rapid development of Mauritius. Also, the influence of specific economic strategies, like agricultural exports (mainly sugar), industrial exports (mainly textiles), or tourism, and in particular their impact on the environment, are investigated

Modeling the Population of Mauritius

Within IIASA's project on "Population and Sustainable Development: A Case Study of Mauritius" an interactive software tool describing the dynamics of population-development-environment interactions was developed. In contrast to similar existing models, population is not only an input variable but it is a driving force of the system. The population module provides the structure of the population by age, sex, level of education and labor force participation. For the future, different levels of fertility, mortality, migration, progression in education and labor force entrance and exit can easily be specified by the user. Changes in those variables in the past have been remarkable. Dependency ratios, calculated in several levels of refinement, show an amazing decline over the period 1962-1990. With different demographic developments, the past three decades would not have brought a significant decline in dependency ratios and may thus possibly have hindered or at least delayed economic development. In the coming decades the population of Mauritius will grow by some 30-40 per cent and it will age considerably. Changes in the socio-demographic composition of the population caused by recent and expected changes in the education and labor force distribution, however, indicate that further economic development is strongly favored during the next two decades

Evaluating a Pension System Considering Children Born: The Case of Austria

The paper discusses the consequences of the adoption of a new pension system that considers the number of children born in Austria. Combining a demographic family model with a pension model and cost profiles of social security expenditures, a policy simulation tool is obtained which allows the testing of different social security policies. The feasibility of the suggested pension reform is examined on both the system level and the individual level to determine under which circumstances such a policy is reasonable and affordable. The first conclusion is that the new pension system would be cost neutral. Secondly, provided a certain response to the pronatalist character of the new system in the form of an increase in fertility, the performance of the social security system would improve. Thirdly, the new system would significantly change the income distribution of retired women to the extent that single and divorced women with children are no longer discriminated. Thus, the emancipatory goal of the policy is fulfilled

Accuracy of circular polarization as a measure of spin polarization in quantum dot qubits

A quantum dot spin LED provides a test of carrier spin injection into a qubit, as well as a means of analyzing carrier spin injection in general and local spin polarization. The polarization of the observed light is, however, significantly influenced by the dot geometry so the spin may be more polarized than the emitted light would naively suggest. We have calculated carrier polarization-dependent optical matrix elements using 8-band strain-dependent k.p theory for InAs/GaAs self-assembled quantum dots (SAQDs) for electron and hole spin injection into a range of quantum dot sizes and shapes, and for arbitrary emission directions. The observed circular polarization does not depend on whether the injected spin-polarized carriers are electrons or holes, but is strongly influenced by the SAQD geometry and emission direction. Calculations for typical SAQD geometries with emission along [110] show light that is only ~5% circularly polarized for spin states that are 100% polarized along [110]. Therefore observed polarizations [Chye et al. PRB 66, 201301(R)] of ~1% imply a spin polarization within the dot of ~20%. We also find that measuring along the growth direction gives near unity conversion of spin to photon polarization, and is the least sensitive to uncertainties in SAQD geometry.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

Action comprehension: deriving spatial and functional relations.

A perceived action can be understood only when information about the action carried out and the objects used are taken into account. It was investigated how spatial and functional information contributes to establishing these relations. Participants observed static frames showing a hand wielding an instrument and a potential target object of the action. The 2 elements could either match or mismatch, spatially or functionally. Participants were required to judge only 1 of the 2 relations while ignoring the other. Both irrelevant spatial and functional mismatches affected judgments of the relevant relation. Moreover, the functional relation provided a context for the judgment of the spatial relation but not vice versa. The results are discussed in respect to recent accounts of action understanding

Pension Systems and Social Security: Trends and National Characteristics

This brief survey paper on the main characteristics of pension systems and social security systems in twelve European countries and Canada belongs to a series of papers originating from the project "Family, Household, and Social Security in Aging Societies." It provides a basis for comparing past and probable future trends in the thirteen countries currently participating in the project

Scenarios for Mauritius, 1990-2050

This Working Paper constitutes Chapter 16 of the book manuscript, "Understanding Population-Development-Environment Interactions: A Case Study on Mauritius". The Mauritius case study was carried out by IIASA in scientific collaboration with the University of Mauritius and funded by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The paper presents and discusses findings from the interdisciplinary computer model simulating alternative future population-development-environment interactions for the period 1990 to 2050. It serves to answer some of the main questions raised by the project, such as "what is the effect of population growth and education on development and the environment of Mauritius". In a first section, some general elements which should be kept in mind when doing scenario experiments are discussed, relating to hard-wired and soft links in the PDE-Mauritius model. Next, alternative "unadjusted" future scenarios are constructed and compared in order to identify the partial impact of various population, economic, and environmental assumptions. A subsequent section demonstrates how those unadjusted scenarios are transformed into consistent multi-component scenarios, labeled as "adjusted scenarios". Those scenarios present consistent development alternatives and hence offer answers to the relevant questions under various development paths