Report of the Terrestrial Bodies Science Working Group. Volume 3: Venus

The science objectives of Pioneer Venus and future investigations of the planet are discussed. Concepts and payloads for proposed missions and the supporting research and technology required to obtain the desired measurements from space and Earth-based observations are examined, as well as mission priorities and schedules

Analysis of Visible/SWIR surface reflectance ratios for aerosol retrievals from satellite in Mexico City urban area

International audienceThe surface reflectance ratio between the visible (VIS) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) radiation is an important quantity for the retrieval of the aerosol optical depth (?a) from the MODIS sensor data. Based on empirically determined VIS/SWIR ratios, MODIS ?a retrieval uses the surface reflectance in the SWIR band (2.1 µm), where the interaction between solar radiation and the aerosol layer is small, to predict the visible reflectances in the blue (0.47 µm) and red (0.66 µm) bands. Therefore, accurate knowledge of the VIS/SWIR ratio is essential for achieving accurate retrieval of aerosol optical depth from MODIS. We analyzed the surface reflectance over some distinct surface covers in and around the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) using MODIS radiances at 0.66 µm and 2.1 µm. The analysis was performed at 1.5 km×1.5 km spatial resolution. Also, ground-based AERONET sun-photometer data acquired in Mexico City from 2002 to 2005 were analyzed for aerosol depth and other aerosol optical properties. In addition, a network of hand-held sun-photometers deployed in Mexico City, as part of the MCMA-2006 Study during the MILAGRO Campaign, provided an unprecedented measurement of ?a in 5 different sites well distributed in the city. We found that the average RED/SWIR ratio representative of the urbanized sites analyzed is 0.73±0.06 for scattering angles a averaged from sun-photometer measurements. The use of the new RED/SWIR ratio of 0.73 in the MODIS retrieval over Mexico City led to a significant improvement in the agreement between the MODIS and sun-photometer AOD results; with the slope, offset, and the correlation coefficient of the linear regression changing from (?aMODIS=0.91?a sun-photometer+0.33, R2=0.66) to (?aMODIS=0.96 ?a sun-photometer?0.006, R2=0.87). Indeed, an underestimation of this ratio in urban areas lead to a significant overestimation of the AOD retrieved from satellite. Therefore, we strongly encourage similar analyses in other urban areas to enhance the development of a parameterization of the surface ratios accounting for urban heterogeneities

Urban Visible/SWIR surface reflectance ratios from satellite and sun photometer measurements in Mexico City

International audienceThe surface reflectance ratio between the visible (VIS) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) radiation is an important quantity for the retrieval of the aerosol optical depth (?a) from the MODIS sensor data. Based on empirically determined VIS/SWIR ratios, MODIS ?a retrieval uses the surface reflectance in the SWIR band (2.1 ?m), where the interaction between solar radiation and the aerosol layer is small, to predict the visible reflectances in the blue (0.47 ?m) and red (0.66 ?m) bands. Therefore, accurate knowledge of the VIS/SWIR ratio is essential for achieving accurate retrieval of aerosol optical depth from MODIS. The heterogeneity of the surface cover in an urban environment increases the uncertainties in the estimation of the surface reflectance and, consequently, ?a. We analyzed the surface reflectance over some distinct surface covers in and around the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) using MODIS radiances at 0.66 ?m and 2.1 ?m. The analysis was performed at 1.5 km×1.5 km spatial resolution. Also, ground-based AERONET sun-photometer data acquired in Mexico City from 2002 to 2005 were analyzed for aerosol optical thickness and other aerosol optical properties. In addition, a network of hand-held sun-photometers deployed in Mexico City, as part of the MCMA-2006 Study during the MILAGRO Campaign, provided an unprecedented measurement of ?a in 5 different sites well distributed in the city. We found that the average RED/SWIR ratio representative of the urbanized sites analyzed is 0.73±0.06. This average ratio was significantly different for non-urban sites, which was approximately 0.55. The aerosol optical thickness retrieved from MODIS radiances at a spatial resolution of 1.5 km×1.5 km and averaged within 10 x 10 km boxes were compared with collocated 1-h ?a averaged from sun-photometer measurements. The use of the new RED/SWIR ratio of 0.73 in the MODIS retrieval led to a significant improvement in the agreement between the MODIS and sun-photometer results; with the slope, offset, and the correlation coefficient of the linear regression changing from (?aMODIS = 0.91 ?a sun-photometer + 0.33 ,R2=0.66) to (?aMODIS = 0.96 ?a sun-photometer ?0.006, R2=0.87)

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Advanced Research Fellowship NE/I021365/1)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Upper Atmospheric Research Program Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio

Ecosystem fluxes of hydrogen: a comparison of flux-gradient methods

Our understanding of biosphere–atmosphere exchange has been considerably enhanced by eddy covariance measurements. However, there remain many trace gases, such as molecular hydrogen (H[subscript 2]), that lack suitable analytical methods to measure their fluxes by eddy covariance. In such cases, flux-gradient methods can be used to calculate ecosystem-scale fluxes from vertical concentration gradients. The budget of atmospheric H[subscript 2] is poorly constrained by the limited available observations, and thus the ability to quantify and characterize the sources and sinks of H[subscript 2] by flux-gradient methods in various ecosystems is important. We developed an approach to make nonintrusive, automated measurements of ecosystem-scale H2 fluxes both above and below the forest canopy at the Harvard Forest in Petersham, Massachusetts, for over a year. We used three flux-gradient methods to calculate the fluxes: two similarity methods that do not rely on a micrometeorological determination of the eddy diffusivity, K, based on (1) trace gases or (2) sensible heat, and one flux-gradient method that (3) parameterizes K. We quantitatively assessed the flux-gradient methods using CO[subscript 2] and H[subscript 2]O by comparison to their simultaneous independent flux measurements via eddy covariance and soil chambers. All three flux-gradient methods performed well in certain locations, seasons, and times of day, and the best methods were trace gas similarity for above the canopy and K parameterization below it. Sensible heat similarity required several independent measurements, and the results were more variable, in part because those data were only available in the winter, when heat fluxes and temperature gradients were small and difficult to measure. Biases were often observed between flux-gradient methods and the independent flux measurements, and there was at least a 26% difference in nocturnal eddy-derived net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and chamber measurements. H[subscript 2] fluxes calculated in a summer period agreed within their uncertainty and pointed to soil uptake as the main driver of H[subscript 2] exchange at Harvard Forest, with H[subscript 2] deposition velocities ranging from 0.04 to 0.10 cm s[superscript −1].National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF Graduate Research Fellowship)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE))Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global ChangeMartin Family Society of Fellows for SustainabilityMassachusetts Institute of Technology (Ally of Nature Research Fund)Massachusetts Institute of Technology (William Otis Crosby Lectureship)Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Warren Klein Fund

International cooperation for Mars exploration and sample return

The National Research Council's Space Studies Board has previously recommended that the next major phase of Mars exploration for the United States involve detailed in situ investigations of the surface of Mars and the return to earth for laboratory analysis of selected Martian surface samples. More recently, the European space science community has expressed general interest in the concept of cooperative Mars exploration and sample return. The USSR has now announced plans for a program of Mars exploration incorporating international cooperation. If the opportunity becomes available to participate in Mars exploration, interest is likely to emerge on the part of a number of other countries, such as Japan and Canada. The Space Studies Board's Committee on Cooperative Mars Exploration and Sample Return was asked by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to examine and report on the question of how Mars sample return missions might best be structured for effective implementation by NASA along with international partners. The committee examined alternatives ranging from scientific missions in which the United States would take a substantial lead, with international participation playing only an ancillary role, to missions in which international cooperation would be a basic part of the approach, with the international partners taking on comparably large mission responsibilities. On the basis of scientific strategies developed earlier by the Space Studies Board, the committee considered the scientific and technical basis of such collaboration and the most mutually beneficial arrangements for constructing successful cooperative missions, particularly with the USSR

Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for atmospheric trace gas inversions. This method is used to estimate emissions of trace gases as well as "hyper-parameters" that characterize the probability density functions (PDFs) of the a priori emissions and model-measurement covariances. By exploring the space of "uncertainties in uncertainties", we show that the hierarchical method results in a more complete estimation of emissions and their uncertainties than traditional Bayesian inversions, which rely heavily on expert judgment. We present an analysis that shows the effect of including hyper-parameters, which are themselves informed by the data, and show that this method can serve to reduce the effect of errors in assumptions made about the a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties. We then apply this method to the estimation of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) emissions over 2012 for the regions surrounding four Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) stations. We find that improper accounting of model representation uncertainties, in particular, can lead to the derivation of emissions and associated uncertainties that are unrealistic and show that those derived using the hierarchical method are likely to be more representative of the true uncertainties in the system. We demonstrate through this SF6 case study that this method is less sensitive to outliers in the data and to subjective assumptions about a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties than traditional methods

Scenarios of Global Change: Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts

Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we assess the climate impacts of emission scenarios exhibiting global mean surface temperatures ranging between 2.4°C and 4.3°C above pre-industrial by 2100. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C. Without further policy measures, the agreement at COP-21 in Paris is projected to result in a 3.5°C increase in global temperature in 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels. Scenarios developed by Shell International (called Mountains and Oceans) exhibit a substantial movement towards temperature stabilization, as they result in increases of only 2.4–2.7°C by 2100. Valuable components of these scenarios include a substantial shift to renewable energy and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). These scenarios are successful in mitigating a large portion of water stress impacts and air pollution damages. They also significantly mitigate increases in ocean acidity. These projections show the significant value of policies that do not quite reach 2°C stabilization, but fall substantially close to that target by the end of the century. The challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement’s aspiration to limit warming to 1.5°C is monumental, yet may be desirable if societies see the 2°C impacts, described here, as running too much risk.The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science under grants DEFG02-94ER61937, DE-FG02-08ER64597, DE-FG02-93ER61677, DE-SC0003906, DE-SC0007114, XEU-0-9920-01; the U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory under Subcontract 4000109855; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grants XA-83240101, PIv83412601-0, RD-83427901-0, XA-83505101-0, XA-83600001-1, and subcontract UTA12-000624; the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants AGS-0944121, EFRI-0835414, IIS-1028163, ECCSv1128147, ARC- 1203526, EF-1137306, AGS-1216707, and SES-0825915; the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grants NNX06AC30A, NNX07AI49G, NNX11AN72G and Sub Agreement No. 08-SFWS-209365.MIT; the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration under grants 06-C-NE-MIT, 09-C-NEMIT, Agmt. No. 4103-30368; the U.S. Department of Transportation under grant DTRT57-10-C-10015; the Electric Power Research Institute under grant EP-P32616/C15124, EP-P8154/C4106; the U.S. Department of Agriculture under grant 58-6000-2-0099, 58-0111-9-001; and a consortium of industrial and foundation sponsors (for the complete list see: globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all). Shell participated actively in this study, supplying all the background data behind their scenarios. MIT remain responsible for 32 all analysis and conclusions. Shell provided a gift of USD 250,000 to the MIT Joint Program, to defray costs related to this research. Martin Haigh represents the Scenarios Team at Shell International Ltd. The paper also benefited from comments from David Hone

Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.</p