Biospheric traumas caused by large impacts and predicted relics in the sedimentary record

When a large asteroid or comet impacts the Earth the supersonic plume ejected on impact causes severe shock heating and chemical reprocessing of the proximal atmosphere. The resultant NO is converted rapidly to NO2, foliage damage due to exposure to NO2 and HNO3, toxicosis resulting from massive mobilization of soil trace metals, and faunal asphyxiation due to exposure to NO2. One class of relic evidence for the above effects arises because extinction of species caused by these chemically induced traumas would be selective. A second class of relic evidence arises because the acid rain will cause massive weathering of continental rocks and soils characterized by large ratios of the relatively insoluble metals, to the more soluble metals. This weathering would be best recorded in fossils in unperturbed deltaic, neritic, or limnetic sediments and for metals with very long oceanic residence times in deep ocean sediments as well. This evidence is discussed

Venus volcanism: Rate estimates from laboratory studies of sulfur gas-solid reactions

Thermochemical reactions between sulfur-bearing gases in the atmosphere of Venus and calcium-, iron-, magnesium-, and sulfur-bearing minerals on the surface of Venus are an integral part of a hypothesized cycle of thermochemical and photochemical reactions responsible for the maintenance of the global sulfuric acid cloud cover on Venus. SO2 is continually removed from the Venus atmosphere by reaction with calcium bearing minerals on the planet's surface. The rate of volcanism required to balance SO2 depletion by reactions with calcium bearing minerals on the Venus surface can therefore be deduced from a knowledge of the relevant gas-solid reaction rates combined with reasonable assumptions about the sulfur content of the erupted material (gas + magma). A laboratory program was carried out to measure the rates of reaction between SO2 and possible crustal minerals on Venus. The reaction of CaCO3(calcite) + SO2 yields CaSO4 (anhydrite) + CO was studied. Brief results are given

Three-dimensional dynamical and chemical modelling of the upper atmosphere

Progress in coding a 3-D upper atmospheric model and in modeling the ozone perturbation resulting from the shuttle booster exhaust is reported. A time-dependent version of a 2-D model was studied and the sulfur cycle in the stratosphere was investigated. The role of meteorology in influencing stratospheric composition measurements was also studied

Parametric sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of dimethylsulfide oxidation in the remote marine boundary layer

International audienceA study of the current significant uncertainties in dimethylsulfide (DMS) gas-phase chemistry provides insight into additional research needed to decrease these uncertainties. The DMS oxidation cycle in the remote marine boundary layer is simulated using a diurnally-varying box model with 56 uncertain chemical and physical parameters. Two analytical methods (direct integration and probabilistic collocation) are used to determine the most influential parameters (sensitivity analysis) and sources of uncertainty (uncertainty analysis) affecting the concentrations of DMS, SO2, methanesulfonic acid (MSA), and H2SO4. The key parameters identified by the sensitivity analysis are associated with DMS emissions, mixing in to and out of the boundary layer, heterogeneous removal of soluble sulfur-containing compounds, and the DMS+OH addition and abstraction reactions. MSA and H2SO4 are also sensitive to the rate constants of numerous other reactions, which limits the effectiveness of mechanism reduction techniques. Propagating the parameter uncertainties through the model leads to concentrations that are uncertain by factors of 1.8 to 3.0. The main sources of uncertainty are from DMS emissions and heterogeneous scavenging. Uncertain chemical rate constants, however, collectively account for up to 50?60% of the net uncertainties in MSA and H2SO4. The concentration uncertainties are also calculated at different temperatures, where they vary mainly due to temperature-dependent chemistry. With changing temperature, the uncertainties of DMS and SO2 remain steady, while the uncertainties of MSA and H2SO4 vary by factors of 2 to 4

Report of the Terrestrial Bodies Science Working Group. Volume 3: Venus

The science objectives of Pioneer Venus and future investigations of the planet are discussed. Concepts and payloads for proposed missions and the supporting research and technology required to obtain the desired measurements from space and Earth-based observations are examined, as well as mission priorities and schedules

Climate Stabilization at 2°C and Net Zero Carbon Emissions

The goal to stabilize global average surface temperature at lower than 2°C above pre-industrial level has been extensively discussed in climate negotiations. A number of publications state that achieving this goal will require net anthropogenic carbon emissions (defined as anthropogenic emissions minus anthropogenic sinks such as carbon capture and sequestration and reforestation) to be reduced to zero between years 2050 and 2100. At the same time, it is also shown in the literature that decreases of non-CO2 emissions can significantly affect the allowable carbon budget. In this study, we explore possible emission pathways under which surface warming will not exceed 2°C, by means of emission-driven climate simulations with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity linked to an Economic Projection and Policy Analysis Model. We carried out a number of simulations from 1861 to 2500 for different values of parameters defining the strength of the climate system response to radiative forcing and the strength of the natural carbon sources and sinks under different anthropogenic emission projections. Although net anthropogenic emissions need to be reduced to zero eventually to achieve climate stabilization, the results of our simulations suggest that, by including significant reductions in non-CO2 emissions, net carbon emissions do not have to be zero by 2050 or even 2100 to meet the 2°C target because of offsets due to the natural carbon sinks in the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. We show that net anthropogenic carbon emissions falling from today’s 9.5 GtC/year to 2.5–7 GtC/year by 2050 and then to 1–2.8 GtC/year by 2100 are consistent with a 2°C target for a range of climate sensitivities (2.0–4.5°C) similar to the IPCC likely range. Changes in the surface temperature beyond 2100 depend on the emission profiles after 2100. For post-2100 carbon emissions decreasing at a rate of about 1.5% per year along with continued decreases in non-CO2 emissions, our projections indicate that natural ecosystems will be able to absorb enough carbon to prevent surface temperature from rising further. A major reason for our results is that the land and ocean uptake rates are a function of the total atmospheric CO2 concentration and, due to the very long lifetime of CO2, this does not decrease anywhere near as fast as the imposed CO2 emissions. The required mixes of energy technologies and the overall costs to achieve the 2°C target are highly dependent on the assumptions about the future costs of low-carbon and zero-carbon emitting technologies. In all our projections, the global energy system requires substantial transformations in a relatively short time.The MIT Joint Program is funded by a consortium of government, industrial and foundation sponsors (for the complete list, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors). Martin Haigh represents the Scenarios Team at Shell International Ltd

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Advanced Research Fellowship NE/I021365/1)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Upper Atmospheric Research Program Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio

Analysis of Visible/SWIR surface reflectance ratios for aerosol retrievals from satellite in Mexico City urban area

International audienceThe surface reflectance ratio between the visible (VIS) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) radiation is an important quantity for the retrieval of the aerosol optical depth (?a) from the MODIS sensor data. Based on empirically determined VIS/SWIR ratios, MODIS ?a retrieval uses the surface reflectance in the SWIR band (2.1 µm), where the interaction between solar radiation and the aerosol layer is small, to predict the visible reflectances in the blue (0.47 µm) and red (0.66 µm) bands. Therefore, accurate knowledge of the VIS/SWIR ratio is essential for achieving accurate retrieval of aerosol optical depth from MODIS. We analyzed the surface reflectance over some distinct surface covers in and around the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) using MODIS radiances at 0.66 µm and 2.1 µm. The analysis was performed at 1.5 km×1.5 km spatial resolution. Also, ground-based AERONET sun-photometer data acquired in Mexico City from 2002 to 2005 were analyzed for aerosol depth and other aerosol optical properties. In addition, a network of hand-held sun-photometers deployed in Mexico City, as part of the MCMA-2006 Study during the MILAGRO Campaign, provided an unprecedented measurement of ?a in 5 different sites well distributed in the city. We found that the average RED/SWIR ratio representative of the urbanized sites analyzed is 0.73±0.06 for scattering angles a averaged from sun-photometer measurements. The use of the new RED/SWIR ratio of 0.73 in the MODIS retrieval over Mexico City led to a significant improvement in the agreement between the MODIS and sun-photometer AOD results; with the slope, offset, and the correlation coefficient of the linear regression changing from (?aMODIS=0.91?a sun-photometer+0.33, R2=0.66) to (?aMODIS=0.96 ?a sun-photometer?0.006, R2=0.87). Indeed, an underestimation of this ratio in urban areas lead to a significant overestimation of the AOD retrieved from satellite. Therefore, we strongly encourage similar analyses in other urban areas to enhance the development of a parameterization of the surface ratios accounting for urban heterogeneities

Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for atmospheric trace gas inversions. This method is used to estimate emissions of trace gases as well as "hyper-parameters" that characterize the probability density functions (PDFs) of the a priori emissions and model-measurement covariances. By exploring the space of "uncertainties in uncertainties", we show that the hierarchical method results in a more complete estimation of emissions and their uncertainties than traditional Bayesian inversions, which rely heavily on expert judgment. We present an analysis that shows the effect of including hyper-parameters, which are themselves informed by the data, and show that this method can serve to reduce the effect of errors in assumptions made about the a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties. We then apply this method to the estimation of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) emissions over 2012 for the regions surrounding four Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) stations. We find that improper accounting of model representation uncertainties, in particular, can lead to the derivation of emissions and associated uncertainties that are unrealistic and show that those derived using the hierarchical method are likely to be more representative of the true uncertainties in the system. We demonstrate through this SF6 case study that this method is less sensitive to outliers in the data and to subjective assumptions about a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties than traditional methods