COVID-19 pandemic waves surveillance in another severe winter of 2021: a basic guide to understand epidemic contexts, interpret pandemic waves and trends, ahead of the curve: how can we understand and interpret alert signals from pandemic waves considering pitfalls and stay ahead of the virus?

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Statement of the ASPHER Task Force on War and Public Health on the Conflict in Israel/Palestine

Copyright © 2024 Razum, Barach, Bochenek, Cunningham, Davidovitch, Kostoulas, Lindert, Lopes, Prikazsky, Reid, Tiljak and Middleto

Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea

We report on and evaluate the process and findings of a real-time modeling exercise in response to an outbreak of measles in Lola prefecture, Guinea, in early 2015 in the wake of the Ebola crisis. Multiple statistical methods for the estimation of the size of the susceptible (i.e., unvaccinated) population were applied to weekly reported measles case data on seven subprefectures throughout Lola. Stochastic compartmental models were used to project future measles incidence in each subprefecture in both an initial and a follow-up iteration of forecasting. Measles susceptibility among 1- to 5-year-olds was estimated to be between 24% and 43% at the beginning of the outbreak. Based on this high baseline susceptibility, initial projections forecasted a large outbreak occurring over approximately 10 weeks and infecting 40 children per 1,000. Subsequent forecasts based on updated data mitigated this initial projection, but still predicted a significant outbreak. A catch-up vaccination campaign took place at the same time as this second forecast and measles cases quickly receded. Of note, case reports used to fit models changed significantly between forecast rounds. Model-based projections of both current population risk and future incidence can help in setting priorities and planning during an outbreak response. A swiftly changing situation on the ground, coupled with data uncertainties and the need to adjust standard analytical approaches to deal with sparse data, presents significant challenges. Appropriate presentation of results as planning scenarios, as well as presentations of uncertainty and two-way communication, is essential to the effective use of modeling studies in outbreak response

Statement of the ASPHER Task Force on War and Public Health on the Conflict in Israel/Palestine

From Frontiers via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: collection 2024, received 2024-01-02, accepted 2024-02-06, epub 2024-02-23Peer reviewed: TruePublication status: Publishe

Statement of the ASPHER Task Force on War and Public Health on the Conflict in Israel/Palestine.

From Europe PMC via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: ppub 2024-01-01, epub 2024-02-23Publication status: Publishe

ASPHER Statement: Déjà vu? Planning for the Covid-19 third wave and planning for the winter 2021-22

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Post-Ebola Measles Outbreak in Lola, Guinea, January–June 2015

During public health crises such as the recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease in West Africa, breakdowns in public health systems can lead to epidemics of vaccine-preventable diseases. We report here on an outbreak of measles in the prefecture of Lola, Guinea, which started in January 2015

The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Public Health Teacher—the Lessons We Must Learn

Statement of the Association of Schools of Public Health in the European Region (ASPHER